6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin

xxjs

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: crumbs on August 26, 2013, 08:36:54 AM

Quote from: xxjs on August 26, 2013, 07:49:47 AM

Quote from: crumbs on August 26, 2013, 07:14:19 AM

Quote from: xxjs on August 25, 2013, 06:52:05 PM

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

You agree with the rest of my points?

Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub

That was goofy. The point i wanted to make is this:
It's unlikely that 5000 years ago anyone could have predicted today's tech -- the wheel epitomised the bleeding edge of technology ~3000 BC. There's nothing to suggest Bitcoin, being closely linked to today's tech, will be remembered as a historical footnote in 5k years. And i'm relying only on linear, not exponential growth

I agree, we can know nothing that far in the future. Currently, the brand of gold as it is engraved in the mythosphere is hard to compete with.

crumbs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: xxjs on August 26, 2013, 07:49:47 AM

Quote from: crumbs on August 26, 2013, 07:14:19 AM

Quote from: xxjs on August 25, 2013, 06:52:05 PM

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

You agree with the rest of my points?

Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub

That was goofy. The point i wanted to make is this:
It's unlikely that 5000 years ago anyone could have predicted today's tech -- the wheel epitomised the bleeding edge of technology ~3000 BC. There's nothing to suggest Bitcoin, being closely linked to today's tech, will be remembered as a historical footnote in 5k years. And i'm relying only on linear, not exponential growth

xxjs

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: crumbs on August 26, 2013, 07:14:19 AM

Quote from: xxjs on August 25, 2013, 06:52:05 PM

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

You agree with the rest of my points?

Yes, except for the quantum computer hubbub

Zaih

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Obviously possible..

No need for hate fella's.

crumbs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: xxjs on August 25, 2013, 06:52:05 PM

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

You agree with the rest of my points?

xxjs

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

There is no hubbub. Money trades against everything on the market, that follows from the very definition of money, therefore money also trades against any other money type on the market.

crumbs

full member

Activity: 210

Merit: 100

Quote from: xxjs on August 24, 2013, 02:48:57 PM

...
Historically, new ~~and better~~ money has always displaced older~~, less perferct~~ money.

FTFY. Newer, different, but not necessarily better. Most goldbugs/fiat haters here will agree.

Quote

Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Bitcoin may be better than gold, though it may or may not be better than fiat -- which is today's money. Most Keynesians would vote nay.

Quote

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

By that time technology will not mean just quantum computers, but quantum computers using quantum computers for quanta Cheesy

Bitcoin will be as useful as dinosaur repellent.

Quote

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

Then why all the hubbub about exchanges & exchange rates? Trade in bitcoins & return to Caesar what's Caesar's Cheesy

ruletheworld

legendary

Activity: 1386

Merit: 1045

Quote from: zoinky on August 25, 2013, 05:02:42 PM

Quote from: xxjs on August 24, 2013, 02:48:57 PM

Quote from: Pruden on August 22, 2013, 05:15:21 AM

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.

Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

The first 5000 years were slow, we got the Internet these days.

True. However, I don't think you can make a Bitcoin wire like you can make a gold wire. Perhaps finally, finally, gold will some REAL use if it's price is down and no one bothers! It has some nice desirable physical properties

zoinky

hero member

Activity: 811

Merit: 1000

Web Developer

Quote from: xxjs on August 24, 2013, 02:48:57 PM

Quote from: Pruden on August 22, 2013, 05:15:21 AM

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.

Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

The first 5000 years were slow, we got the Internet these days.

xxjs

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: Pruden on August 22, 2013, 05:15:21 AM

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.

Historically, new and better money has always displaced older, less perferct money. Thus, if bitcoin is better than gold, it could completely displace gold as money, leaving gold only with the intrinsic value.

Personally, I think gold has some properties that bitcoin does not have, including a 5000 year trust. Let's reconsider bitcoin versus gold in the year 7013, bitcoin may have the trust that gold enjoy now.

Fiat on the other hand ... it's going down.

Bitcopia

hero member

Activity: 715

Merit: 500

Quote from: bitcoin carpenter on August 22, 2013, 05:29:43 PM

Or if evert btc owner accepted btc in their workplace tomorrow.....
At a 20% discount .. wed all be rich by christmas

Yep, we can dream Wink

. But realistically, a similar scenario is very likely to happen in the coming decades with either bitcoin, another digital currency, or an amalgam of various digital currencies.

bitcoin carpenter

legendary

Activity: 1582

Merit: 1001

Or if evert btc owner accepted btc in their workplace tomorrow.....
At a 20% discount .. wed all be rich by christmas

AU

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

not until we can cash out coins to personal debit cards... (without middle men)

then lets talk price rise

zoinky

hero member

Activity: 811

Merit: 1000

Web Developer

Quote from: ?? on ??

When I start to see these kinds of posts it tells me that the rate is primed for a downturn.

But there's always posts like this.

jamesc760

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

will never happen.

Pruden

hero member

Activity: 496

Merit: 500

Spanish Bitcoin trader

rpietila already reached the conclusion that, should bitcoin take the place of gold, it would be worth 300 000 $/BTC. It looks like you did very similar napkin calculations.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

I think 1 BTC = 1000 USD or even 10000 USD is fairly possible, if mass adoption occurs.
but >100000 is just too much Tongue

(unless Bernanke has a drunk night and doubles the monetary base over night)

Bitcopia

hero member

Activity: 715

Merit: 500

Quote from: ArticMine on August 21, 2013, 11:47:45 PM

Quote from: Bitcopia on August 21, 2013, 06:19:13 PM

According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars.

If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn.

~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible, but this would make one satoshi worth $0.28, and I think that a satoshi would serve better payment functions at a smaller value.

No if 1 BTC is worth USD 285,000, 1 satoshi is worth USD 0.00285

Yep, nice correction.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: Bitcopia on August 21, 2013, 06:19:13 PM

According to Thomas Reuters GFMS, roughly 377 MM pounds of gold exist above ground which equates to about 6,000,000,000 ounces of gold. For simplicity, I'll use an undervaluation of gold at $1,000. This means the total value of gold above ground is roughly 6 trillion dollars.

If bitcoin is adopted on a global scale as a deflationary store of value that is coupled with other valuable functions, much in the same respect as gold, what does this mean for the potential price of one BTC? If BTC ever becomes as valuable as gold, we're looking at 6 trillion dollars divided by 21 MM instead of 6 Bn.

~ $285,000. Is that realistic? In my opinion, probably not. Is it a possiblity? Anything's possible, but this would make one satoshi worth $0.28, and I think that a satoshi would serve better payment functions at a smaller value.

No if 1 BTC is worth USD 285,000, 1 satoshi is worth USD 0.00285

Bitcopia

hero member

Activity: 715

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

When I start to see these kinds of posts it tells me that the rate is primed for a downturn.

As stated, it is not my opinion bitcoin is ever going to be worth that much, and certainly not any time in the next decade, but is a 6 trillion dollar market capitalization ridiculous for a global currency? I don't think so.

Topic: 6 Bn ounces of gold and the value of bitcoin (Read 2415 times)