77% into the next Bitcoin halving | Bitcointalksearch.org

minairia3

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 31, 2023, 10:35:00 AM

Quote from: minairia3 on May 31, 2023, 09:49:20 AM

But have you ever thought of the opposite scenario? I still think that the movement of the market is still not wholly dependent on supply and demand, the market is still manipulated by some underground forces. So when people expect a bull run after the halving, the opposite is most likely to happen. Bitcoin usually won't move according to the will of the crowd. You don't have to spread the word about the halving because most know it and all look forward to it, so that's what I'm worried about.

Yes, you mean a famous phrase on Wall Street that says: “Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed” This is very possible, but given the three times in the history of halving, a new summit is expected.

I know this is not necessarily always repeated, but I like to be optimistic.

I am not saying we should be pessimistic, we need to be optimistic because if history repeats itself, bitcoin hits a new ATH, the one who benefits is us and no one else. I mean, we also need to have a plan for the worst case scenario because if we don't have any preparation and when it happens, we will panic. Things constantly repeat themselves in the past, but I feel it was too easy this time, and everyone already knew what was going to happen, so maybe things will change. Don't forget the saying: Bitcoin is unpredictable.

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Quote from: alastantiger on May 30, 2023, 01:04:46 PM

But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

Many experienced crypto folks are 100% aware that there's something good and the increase will be there after the halving. That's why those that have understood it are going here and there telling that everyone should buy Bitcoin before the halving happens. It's because we're basing on history and these patterns have been visible in every cycle that happens. No, I haven't thought about that because I am one of those people who 100% believe that an increase will happen prior to halving.

Marykeller

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Quote from: alastantiger on May 30, 2023, 01:04:46 PM

But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price.

If the demand for bitcoin didn't increase, how would altcoin skyrocket in price then? For Altcoin to soar in price it needs to follow suit of bitcoin to do so. That's to say if bitcoin increases in price, altcoin does the same. If bitcoin didn't, altcoin won't. So, therefore the demand for bitcoin will always be more than that of altcoins.

It is certain that bitcoin will increase in price during the bull run season but in the case of altcoin, no one knows the exert altcoin that will give much return in the bull run compared to bitcoin.

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Quote from: alastantiger on May 30, 2023, 01:04:46 PM

Chart Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving. My friends are excited and have already started stacking up more Bitcoin in optimistic anticipation that when the price increases as has been predicted already that they will be able to take profits or their return on investment would be 150%. But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

No one actually knows if bitcoin price go down or up in this period. But I think this should be not the only target for bitcoin investment the target should be long term. If the price go up, people who invested in bitcoin for only halving they will sell their coins and many other will follow this and the result will be on the market. Bitcoin will struggle because of that sudden wave of people selling their coins. I think the target for bitcoin investment should always be long term.

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Quote from: alastantiger on May 30, 2023, 01:04:46 PM

Chart Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving. My friends are excited and have already started stacking up more Bitcoin in optimistic anticipation that when the price increases as has been predicted already that they will be able to take profits or their return on investment would be 150%. But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

The chart is very accurate. We are currently at the bear the bottom of the next pump. Anyone selling his/her Bitcoin now is going to be unpleasantly surprised and do what they always do and buy at the top, when the price starts drooping again.

The halving event (I call it the halvening - combination of having and happening Grin

) gives Bitcoin a tangible and logical reason for why the price rises. Especially if you consider the long term potential of price long after near the last Bitcoin has been mined. I think we will see prices that stretch beyond 10^6 figures before the end of this decade and the coming of the next.

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Quote from: OgNasty on May 31, 2023, 11:26:37 AM

We may be 77% of the way to the next halving, but we're about 50% away from the next price bubble.

It's 2023, I think it's a bit old to call Bitcoin price appreciations a bubble.
A bubble in economics is an irrational increase in the price of a product, far above its intrinsic value, after which it crashes down when the demand wanes. This happened with the the tulip mania and also the housing bubble.

Bitcoin was mis-characterised to be in a bubble during the 2017 bull run due to general ignorance around it, we're five years from that now and the current price is higher than the bubble price of that cycle.

ImThour

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No way any website can predict the actual day of Bitcoin Halving correctly, I made a thread earlier which had all the Halving Countdowns in one post.
All of them were showing different dates for the Bitcoin Halving. So it being on 77% according to this website, is not going to be the most accurate data as of now.

Maybe after Bitcoin Halving? sure. But not yet.

bayudndy

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I see that the price situation of bitcoin in recent times has been relatively stable and has trended up gradually over the past week. But it's not going too fast, and it's likely to turn around if there's no breaking news. So with halving events, the block reward reduction can create a perception of scarcity and potentially drive prices up. However, it is also impossible to predict that it will happen according to the above-mentioned points of view, so it is important to be very deliberate and cautious about the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market.

Dave1

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We still don't know how big the next bull run though after the block halving. Of course everyone is banking that it will be huge and so we continue to stack sats, accumulate as much as we can. Hopefully though those who are doing this will not just sell all their bitcoin in the bull run. What I mean is that it will become so scarce in the future that maybe yeah, take your profits, but still put some in your bag for the future. And I think you can still continue to save even at the start of the halving and then sell them at the peak of the price in 2025.

retreat

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I predict that the Bitcoin halving will bring us closer to ATH or even beyond it. But of course it's not instant after the halving, it's possible that this process will happen a few months after the halving and I'm pretty sure about this. And also I don't really hope that the halving can increase the price of Bitcoin significantly, because if you get your hopes up and then it doesn't happen you're usually going to be disappointed, thats why I'm only responding to this halving normally, but if it does happen I'll also be very grateful.

OgNasty

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We may be 77% of the way to the next halving, but we're about 50% away from the next price bubble. Do your stacking now while those cheap coins are still out there, because once that halving hits they will start to disappear. It usually takes about a year to a year and a half before the market overshoots on the demand side and causes a bubble. You don't want to be buying during that period, so make sure that you scoop all the Bitcoin you want to own in the next year, because after that things are going to get frothy and you're going to want to be on the sell side (if you can ignore the hype and stick to your trading plan).

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Quote from: minairia3 on May 31, 2023, 09:49:20 AM

But have you ever thought of the opposite scenario? I still think that the movement of the market is still not wholly dependent on supply and demand, the market is still manipulated by some underground forces. So when people expect a bull run after the halving, the opposite is most likely to happen. Bitcoin usually won't move according to the will of the crowd. You don't have to spread the word about the halving because most know it and all look forward to it, so that's what I'm worried about.

As an investor it is always ideal to think about the good, the bad, and the ugly. Every Bitcoin investor believes that the first quarter of next year will be a time for investors to reap from their patience, doggedness, and confidence in Bitcoin. Everybody already knows the risk involved in Bitcoin investment that is why we have to invest what we can afford to lose. I have come across many threads in the forum where people have gone to the extreme of taking loans to invest and even encouraging their aged retiring parents to invest their gratuity in Bitcoin because they are expecting so much gain during the bull run next year. I will always advise them to calm down and invest wisely and not greedily.

Quote from: avikz on May 31, 2023, 09:49:26 AM

The usual sentiment around bitcoin halving is generally optimistic. The general thinking is that, if the demand stays robust and the production decreases, the price is bound to go up. That's why people are staking up while the price is somewhat stable.

It's correct that no one knows which way the market is going to respond after halving. But the general sentiment is positive and the people will try to cash out from this opportunity.

There is every reason to be optimistic because demand will rise and supply will be limited. Don't also forget that crypto skeptics always buy Bitcoin when the price is high. Many uninformed people are motivated to buy when the price is rising but they are always scared to buy when the price is falling because they don't believe that the price will rise again. So I am expecting more people to buy, with the decrease in supply the price will definitely rise.

yhiaali3

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Quote from: minairia3 on May 31, 2023, 09:49:20 AM

But have you ever thought of the opposite scenario? I still think that the movement of the market is still not wholly dependent on supply and demand, the market is still manipulated by some underground forces. So when people expect a bull run after the halving, the opposite is most likely to happen. Bitcoin usually won't move according to the will of the crowd. You don't have to spread the word about the halving because most know it and all look forward to it, so that's what I'm worried about.

Yes, you mean a famous phrase on Wall Street that says: “Buy The Fear, Sell The Greed” This is very possible, but given the three times in the history of halving, a new summit is expected.

I know this is not necessarily always repeated, but I like to be optimistic.

avikz

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The usual sentiment around bitcoin halving is generally optimistic. The general thinking is that, if the demand stays robust and the production decreases, the price is bound to go up. That's why people are staking up while the price is somewhat stable.

It's correct that no one knows which way the market is going to respond after halving. But the general sentiment is positive and the people will try to cash out from this opportunity.

minairia3

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 31, 2023, 12:01:57 AM

Of course, everything is possible. Possibilities are open in all negative and positive directions, but let us be optimistic because this is what usually happens historically after every halving.

Every time there was a big rise and new peaks after the halving, so why not this time as well? It is better to spread the positive news because that will really help, since everyone is optimistic everyone will rush to buy more and collect and this will of course drive up the prices.

But have you ever thought of the opposite scenario? I still think that the movement of the market is still not wholly dependent on supply and demand, the market is still manipulated by some underground forces. So when people expect a bull run after the halving, the opposite is most likely to happen. Bitcoin usually won't move according to the will of the crowd. You don't have to spread the word about the halving because most know it and all look forward to it, so that's what I'm worried about.

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I perfectly understand OP's doubts. On one hand, we have the "Past performance does not guarantee future performance" rule (although it is not something that has been applied to date) and, on the other hand, the market is maturing.

That said, I'm one of those mentioned who are waiting for a new ATH after next halving, but, although I'm a strong believer in Bitcoin, I'd never invest more than I can afford to lose. I will probably regret not risking more, the way I have regretted it in the past, but if ever the cycle doesn't repeat I'll still be fine. To me, it's a good thing not to be too greedy.

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The next halving is around April or May 2024, Bitcoin halving event has historically impacted its price, it's important to recognize that market dynamics can be unpredictable. These individuals push the limit of their understanding of market trends to predict price movements. Also, participants often find themselves at the receiving end of price swings, which is sometimes devastating, and other times, financially fulfilling. Diversification and staying informed about market trends and news can help make more informed investment decisions.

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Quote from: alastantiger on May 30, 2023, 01:04:46 PM

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/05/30/wu885.jpeg
Chart Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/
Real time Bitcoin halving progress shows that we are already 77% into the next Bitcoin halving. My friends are excited and have already started stacking up more Bitcoin in optimistic anticipation that when the price increases as has been predicted already that they will be able to take profits or their return on investment would be 150%. But then, no one truly knows if the price would increase or not. With the current nature of the cryptocurrency market where competition is stiff between Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrency no one knows if the demand for Bitcoin would increase which in turns increases the price. No one knows if there would be some crazy regulations somewhere that would affect the price. No one knows if some crypto firm that is already over leveraged would declare bankruptcy within that time and then Bitcoin's price doesn't rise more than 5%. We are all acting in good faith that everything would run smoothly, we'd take profits and everyone is happy in the end.

This sounds so pessimistic but haven't you thought about it like this too? The what ifs and what if nots?

CANT WAIT!!!!!

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Quote from: TheUltraElite on May 31, 2023, 12:24:52 AM

I say let bitcoin halving continue as it would. Whatever happens we will face that with our own guts and experience. There will not be nl use in speculating about what happens or how the bull market occurs.

What I have seen from halving is that before the event bull run starts and after the event dumping starts but this might not repeat and hence don't get it into your heads. Before that happens traders could accumulate coins as much as possible at lower price. But all in all the norm accumulation of Bitcoin that people do should continue as normal, halving will not change our outlook much.

Speculating will only give a different view of the price that will be reached later, whether it will repeat or there are some differences the Halving will still happen and be looked forward to. We just need to be prepared.

Being mentally prepared and accumulating valuable crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, will be more beneficial.
We don't know what will happen or what drama occurs before or after the Halving.
The crypto market may repeat itself, but it will not be completely the same.

Prepare mentally, with assets and money to spare for things that may go beyond our predictions.

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

Quote from: Onset on May 30, 2023, 09:59:07 PM

Honestly I don’t think anything in this world can shake a bull run so hard it never recovers. Typically, bull runs have always been kinda invincible..

Remember, halving means Bitcoin gets twice as hard to mine. It’s likely gonna surprise us all.

I say let bitcoin halving continue as it would. Whatever happens we will face that with our own guts and experience. There will not be nl use in speculating about what happens or how the bull market occurs.

What I have seen from halving is that before the event bull run starts and after the event dumping starts but this might not repeat and hence don't get it into your heads. Before that happens traders could accumulate coins as much as possible at lower price. But all in all the norm accumulation of Bitcoin that people do should continue as normal, halving will not change our outlook much.

Topic: 77% into the next Bitcoin halving (Read 398 times)