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Topic: $820 - $810 on Bitstamp!? (Read 2457 times)

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
February 01, 2014, 09:33:58 PM
#28
MtC,  you've got some serious psychological projection issues. You know I have a good-sized stash of coins. If I want to sell, then I am preying on newbie suckers. If I want to hodl, then I'm a "nutter" true believer with no rational basis for this belief. You simply can't fathom the reality that I have reason to value my coins at more than the bid price, even if I bought them much, much, much cheaper. My purchase price has nothing to do with their present and future value. nothing at all. You are projecting what you would be thinking if you were in my place, but you could never be in my place thinking the way you do. You just don't get it, and your efforts to reconcile the cognitive dissonance between your expectations and reality pushes you closer and closer to the edge.

You can't even conceive of the POSSIBILITY that I may have an understanding of the situation that you lack. I'm crazy lucky, and one day that luck will run out, you tell yourself.  Time may prove you correct, but in the mean time, perhaps a little humility would serve you well. We all have much to learn.  

yeah yeah...u bought in double figures or whatever and now u are loaded...but you are holding cos you think your lines of crypto-code are worth so much more than current spot.

Hooray for you, why don't you go and start up your own consultancy....except don't, cos there is very little I have read from you that has made me think that 'this billyjoeallen really seems to have a handle on what is going down in Bitcoin land'.

What are you going to do in your 'consultancy'? Charge people a fee for listening to stories about how much money you made from HODLING and how they too should invest and HODL?

As I said before, I plan to focus much more on merchant adoption. I am honest enough to admit that for now this is more for publicity than increased revenue and savings on payment processing fees. My target clients are largely people who waste a lot of money on futile political activism. I plan on convincing them that Bitcoin adoption is a much more effective tactic for achieving their aims of a more business-friendly environment in which to operate.

My personal investment story is anecdotal. I am the first to admit that maxing out credit cards three years ago to acquire my stake was recklessly risky. I wouldn't recommend that to anyone. My decisions are colored by ideology, but I think most people's are too and at least I am aware of it. The more useful story is when I convinced my father to buy in at $31/BTC and the market crashed to $3/BTC and stayed below his purchase price fr a year and a half. I am the first to admit I have no crystal ball, but he wasn't buying for the short term, so he came out ahead (so far). I didn't push him to buy more than he was comfortable losing. A good consultant IMHO is not primarily a salesman, but an information resource.

My personal investment story is anecdotal. Investment strategies are based on risk tolerances, goals and time horizons, so I don't use myself as an example to follow.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
February 01, 2014, 09:25:49 PM
#27
I take money off them, but it's like when I win at poker and give 90% to the house through the rake.

same here..  just sold some 785's for 823's today which aint all that great when you take out the dual 1% rakes

legendary
Activity: 3780
Merit: 5429
February 01, 2014, 09:19:37 PM
#26
When you trade 4-lot bond futures, 5-lot crude or gold, is it your own capital? If so, then why not just retire and live the good life. If 500K was the size of one of my trading chips, I know for sure I wouldn't be sitting crouched around a computer monitor doing that shit.

MattTheCat, did you ever consider that someone might be trading on behalf of a big player, like a big whale investor or even Second Market?  A bitcoin ETF such as them would have those size trading chips, and someone to do the trading for them so they don't have to get their hands dirty.  You really think they are just going to sit on their big stash of bitcoins for the whole year, and not try to play the market to earn more return?
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
February 01, 2014, 09:14:46 PM
#25
"I can’t tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way"

"They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market"

etc etc
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
February 01, 2014, 09:13:11 PM
#24
we are just talking about what is going on at the exchanges.. not folks that are mainly holding


I just presented a different perception he might not of thought about..  I also think coinbase can sell at small losses too at bitstamp to balance out their broker sales which have a much higher margin

Yeah, Coinbase is a substantial payer and we have no idea what their volumes are. I really admire the way they structured their business model to take 90% of the profits with 10% of the risks. I take money off them, but it's like when I win at poker and give 90% to the house through the rake.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 01, 2014, 09:12:47 PM
#23
MtC,  you've got some serious psychological projection issues. You know I have a good-sized stash of coins. If I want to sell, then I am preying on newbie suckers. If I want to hodl, then I'm a "nutter" true believer with no rational basis for this belief. You simply can't fathom the reality that I have reason to value my coins at more than the bid price, even if I bought them much, much, much cheaper. My purchase price has nothing to do with their present and future value. nothing at all. You are projecting what you would be thinking if you were in my place, but you could never be in my place thinking the way you do. You just don't get it, and your efforts to reconcile the cognitive dissonance between your expectations and reality pushes you closer and closer to the edge.

You can't even conceive of the POSSIBILITY that I may have an understanding of the situation that you lack. I'm crazy lucky, and one day that luck will run out, you tell yourself.  Time may prove you correct, but in the mean time, perhaps a little humility would serve you well. We all have much to learn.  

yeah yeah...u bought in double figures or whatever and now u are loaded...but you are holding cos you think your lines of crypto-code are worth so much more than current spot.

Hooray for you, why don't you go and start up your own consultancy....except don't, cos there is very little I have read from you that has made me think that 'this billyjoeallen really seems to have a handle on what is going down in Bitcoin land'.

What are you going to do in your 'consultancy'? Charge people a fee for listening to stories about how much money you made from HODLING and how they too should invest and HODL?

I have witnessed some bewildering buying and selling antics on Bitstamp earlier in the evening. A couple of people have shed some light on what might have been going down. You aint one of those people.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
February 01, 2014, 09:06:22 PM
#22
we are just talking about what is going on at the exchanges.. not folks that are mainly holding


I just presented a different perception he might not of thought about..  I also think coinbase can sell at small losses too at bitstamp to balance out their broker sales which have a much higher margin

legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
February 01, 2014, 08:57:12 PM
#21
MtC,  you've got some serious psychological projection issues. You know I have a good-sized stash of coins. If I want to sell, then I am preying on newbie suckers. If I want to hodl, then I'm a "nutter" true believer with no rational basis for this belief. You simply can't fathom the reality that I have reason to value my coins at more than the bid price, even if I bought them much, much, much cheaper. My purchase price has nothing to do with their present and future value. nothing at all. You are projecting what you would be thinking if you were in my place, but you could never be in my place thinking the way you do. You just don't get it, and your efforts to reconcile the cognitive dissonance between your expectations and reality pushes you closer and closer to the edge.

You can't even conceive of the POSSIBILITY that I may have an understanding of the situation that you lack. I'm crazy lucky, and one day that luck will run out, you tell yourself.  Time may prove you correct, but in the mean time, perhaps a little humility would serve you well. We all have much to learn.  
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 01, 2014, 08:51:43 PM
#20

the whales came to the exchanges with coins, not fiat...


Which makes the likes of me an absolute tube for coming to the exchange with fiat, and not coins?

Seriously, what measures can there be to prevent Bitcoin from just being operated as a long drawn out whale fiat fattening scheme?

Is the much talked about institutional finance, the big money that is supposedly going to take Bitcoin to a bazillion USD, really going to be naive or willing enough to jump right into the whales feeding games. It dont matter how much money these big players have. If the acquisition of Bitcoins is king, then the whales are holding all the cards and could take the Wall St boys to the cleaners. Could this really happen!?

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
February 01, 2014, 08:37:09 PM
#19
think of it this way..  say a few whales in an exchange make up 80% of the $$$ and coins in that exchange.. say there is 10 times more coins than their $$ value of cash as well

so what is a whale to do?   churn churn churn selling to yourself and grab as much new guppy money as you can regardless of the price.. these whales have like a cost basis of $1 or less on their coins and you keep thinking they are buying at $815 and selling $813 or something

But you should just tack on any short term loss of a few dollars onto their cost basis of $1 so even if they lose $5 on a trade their cost basis is really $6 on the trades that are with the new money guppies

and then if the coins start to crash, just buy a pile of them up to reflate and recharge

the whales came to the exchanges with coins, not fiat...

  
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 01, 2014, 08:22:49 PM
#18
Eh, ok. I've actually been trading for almost 20 years, 15 of it professionally (and some of those years net negative, humble grows on you after awhile if you survive). I have written a couple books on the subject. Short term trading is extremely difficult. But two things. First, like I said market will trade towards size. Pay attention you will see it, if you have growing bid or ask positions that's a little different. If you have outsized positions at a price level the market will tend to trade towards it. If it's some clown trying to build size where there is no organic support or resistance, the best thing to do is run them over and cover your own position on the momentum from other traders buying/selling the move. We call it scalping, if you can see it, what makes you think anyone else can't.

As for "whales", 500 lot BTC is ~$400k face value. That is a 4-lot bond futures. Less than 4-lot gold, less than 5-lot crude I very seldom trade positions that small on a short time frame.  And I really don't mean to brag, because most traders in my ballpark don't trade that small. This is a very small sandbox. You guys wait til the institutional money shows up if you want action.

I do enjoy following along. I am just long holding in crypto land for the most part. I don't much like the exchanges in their current incarnations.

Good luck.

Fair enough.

I have heard this counter-intuitive rule which states that 'the market moves towards the heaviest side of the order book' but have found that sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. Prior to the previous downslide, the Ask wall was towering above the Bid wall. Certainly when the market was sliding, the heaviest side of the order book occurs on the side in which the market is not moving. The market stops sliding when it hits a Bid wall large enough to absorb the selling pressure, which is often found 'erected' around important support levels.

I don't know if what happened here can be considered scalping as such. I can't prove it, but I suspect that the recent upwards momentum has been largely fabricated by those with enough capital and BTC to push it up as I otherwise sense no organic support for pushing this market higher at this point in time. Now, regardless of how big or little you think 500K worth of BTC is, anyone who can play this game with those size of chips would have to be considered one of the bigger fish to say the very least. As I stated, I was sitting observing this joker shifting these 160 BTC buy tranches around the Bid wall, trying to push steep Bid wall up to spot price. I also noticed a 199 BTC Ask offer hovering around on other side of order book,  and then WHAM! A 500 BTC order smashes into Bid wall taking two of the 160 BTC strong 'chips' with it, then 10 seconds later a 250 BTC order smashes into Ask wall. Presuming that there was just two whales at play here (or perhaps only one), there can't have been more than 80-120 BTC worth of of Joe Bloggs' BTC trades that got caught up in this move. Which means roughly, one whale sold 500 BTC between prices of 820-810 (bulk between 816-812), and then bought 250 at 814.99 precisely! Without getting out the calculator, it is clear that things don't make sense here in that they don't add up, at least not with a profit at the end of it, regardless of who made which moves.

When you trade 4-lot bond futures, 5-lot crude or gold, is it your own capital? If so, then why not just retire and live the good life. If 500K was the size of one of my trading chips, I know for sure I wouldn't be sitting crouched around a computer monitor doing that shit.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
February 01, 2014, 07:58:30 PM
#17
Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

Yes. That explains entirely the two whales (or who knows, maybe it was just one) moving hundreds of BTC worth of funds around the Bid wall before a multiple hundred BTC order smashed right into it.



Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

You really wanna take that bet with all that tax refund money pouring into the exchanges? You think Cypress was the only reason for last April's rally?
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
February 01, 2014, 07:46:36 PM
#16
Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

Yes. You are in the same camp as I am except I suspect that there might be much more of a bloodbath than $600. That don't even touch the 200 day MA!

However, this thread wasn't about the 'dramatic' drop in Bitcoin price, but more about how it happened. This wasn't market forces, but the hands of just two, or maybe even just one 'heavy weight'.

I watched it play out and funnily enough, when I was watching the 160 Bid tranches hop around, I thought to myself, "I would love the power to be able to to take this fkn joker right out", and then someone did....and it hurt me.

I have had enough of this for now....horrible horrible manipulated market.

A bad day at the office. Think I will bow out trying to trade for now. Shorting option has been broken and Bitstamp is a fkn awful platform to try and trade on...even when trading long.



$600 was being conservative. Perhaps it may go lower...who knows.
member
Activity: 182
Merit: 10
February 01, 2014, 07:43:26 PM
#15


Limited experience with btc but IRL we have a standing rule that any market will move toward the size. It is counterintuitive but the bulk of volume comes in bursts, we know this, so if you want to bait the market higher you are actually better off dangling a sell order far enough away to cancel it. algos are helpful for that. And yes someone probably saw the same amatuer move you did and decided to slap them and make a few bucks. I would have done same.  

You would have done the same!? You don't even know what you are talking about m8, but 3/10 for at least trying to sound like a pro trader.


Eh, ok. I've actually been trading for almost 20 years, 15 of it professionally (and some of those years net negative, humble grows on you after awhile if you survive). I have written a couple books on the subject. Short term trading is extremely difficult. But two things. First, like I said market will trade towards size. Pay attention you will see it, if you have growing bid or ask positions that's a little different. If you have outsized positions at a price level the market will tend to trade towards it. If it's some clown trying to build size where there is no organic support or resistance, the best thing to do is run them over and cover your own position on the momentum from other traders buying/selling the move. We call it scalping, if you can see it, what makes you think anyone else can't.

As for "whales", 500 lot BTC is ~$400k face value. That is a 4-lot bond futures. Less than 4-lot gold, less than 5-lot crude I very seldom trade positions that small on a short time frame.  And I really don't mean to brag, because most traders in my ballpark don't trade that small. This is a very small sandbox. You guys wait til the institutional money shows up if you want action.

I do enjoy following along. I am just long holding in crypto land for the most part. I don't much like the exchanges in their current incarnations.

Good luck.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 01, 2014, 07:31:04 PM
#14
you sound frustrated, holding is much more relaxing.  <3 =) <3    that said im extreamly bearish at the moment. my fiance was trying to buy some at 710  but couldnt yet due to coinbases rules. i told her dont worry about it, we should see prices there again soon....   dammit we better! shes glaring at me every morning like its my fault bitcoin is going up.   CRASH CRASH BITCOIN this house needs to see 710 again! =)

I reckon you will get your 'wish' soon enough....and then some.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
February 01, 2014, 07:05:50 PM
#13
I think microtransactions like the chicago paper will bring the price up but retailers adding bitcoin will bring more sell pressure

(ie: people can cash out in items, not really going to cashout a lot on content, but many people buying a small stash of btc for content is bullish)

among other things of course.. lots of stuff swirling around these days
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
February 01, 2014, 06:56:29 PM
#12
Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

Yes. You are in the same camp as I am except I suspect that there might be much more of a bloodbath than $600. That don't even touch the 200 day MA!

However, this thread wasn't about the 'dramatic' drop in Bitcoin price, but more about how it happened. This wasn't market forces, but the hands of just two, or maybe even just one 'heavy weight'.

I watched it play out and funnily enough, when I was watching the 160 Bid tranches hop around, I thought to myself, "I would love the power to be able to to take this fkn joker right out", and then someone did....and it hurt me.

I have had enough of this for now....horrible horrible manipulated market.

A bad day at the office. Think I will bow out trying to trade for now. Shorting option has been broken and Bitstamp is a fkn awful platform to try and trade on...even when trading long.



you sound frustrated, holding is much more relaxing.  <3 =) <3    that said im extreamly bearish at the moment. my fiance was trying to buy some at 710  but couldnt yet due to coinbases rules. i told her dont worry about it, we should see prices there again soon....   dammit we better! shes glaring at me every morning like its my fault bitcoin is going up.   CRASH CRASH BITCOIN this house needs to see 710 again! =)
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 01, 2014, 06:42:26 PM
#11
Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.

Yes. You are in the same camp as I am except I suspect that there might be much more of a bloodbath than $600. That don't even touch the 200 day MA!

However, this thread wasn't about the 'dramatic' drop in Bitcoin price, but more about how it happened. This wasn't market forces, but the hands of just two, or maybe even just one 'heavy weight'.

I watched it play out and funnily enough, when I was watching the 160 Bid tranches hop around, I thought to myself, "I would love the power to be able to to take this fkn joker right out", and then someone did....and it hurt me.

I have had enough of this for now....horrible horrible manipulated market.

A bad day at the office. Think I will bow out trying to trade for now. Shorting option has been broken and Bitstamp is a fkn awful platform to try and trade on...even when trading long.

legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1491
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
February 01, 2014, 06:33:23 PM
#10
Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

Yes. That explains entirely the two whales (or who knows, maybe it was just one) moving hundreds of BTC worth of funds around the Bid wall before a multiple hundred BTC order smashed right into it.



Longer term I am a bull but I believe we have not worked off all of the downside/sell offs entirely. We may see $600 by early to mid March. Time will tell.
hero member
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
February 01, 2014, 06:28:14 PM
#9
Price has been trapped in a range around $800, slowly sliding from $1000 over the past few weeks.

I still think we will see some downside in the next 4-6 weeks. Put a bottom in and then start slowly the next bull leg up.

Yes. That explains entirely the two whales (or who knows, maybe it was just one) moving hundreds of BTC worth of funds around the Bid wall before a multiple hundred BTC order smashed right into it.

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