We have been in a CRASH since Nov (when BTC hit ~$1200) and been in a lame ass sideways motion since just like the April crash... we probably have another 3-4 months of this crap. Wake me up when we hit another ATH of $2500 or more
Topic: 820 is the new 130 (Stamp) - page 2. (Read 3296 times)
So we will have another dip then? We had that SR dip last time after 130.
If we are going to extrapolate, might as well extrapolate everything.
If we are going to extrapolate, might as well extrapolate everything.
October 15 is the last extension deadline for most taxpayers. Interesting that spikes have occurred in April and November in the past.
After Jan 31 no one will use Huobi as an excuse to stay out.
After Jan 31 no one will use Huobi as an excuse to stay out.
When do people get those tax refunds or whatever you call them in US? How big those usually are for normal people? In my country they are paid in early december and range something like 300-3000€ usually.
Depends on the amount of taxes you paid to the federal government and state government. Tax laws here usually are very complicated and it depends on a wide variety of different factors. We usually get them around February, but the deadline is April 15 to file a return. Could be any amount, from $1 to $100000, and if you don't pay enough you might have to pay them.
Several things are suppressing the price, in my opinion. Briefly:
1) More bad news expected from China.
2) As much as people want to shrug off mining centralization concerns, it is a problem which Bitcoin will eventually have to decisively confront. Ghash reminded us of this.
3) Regular people are still having a hard time getting Bitcoin. If they can't buy it with a credit card online, they are puzzled.
4) Merchant adoption is great, but it is simply encouraging holders to liquidate. Currency outflow > inflow implies a price drop. The inflow isn't as high as it should be due to 3). I'm guessing holders are slow to replenish their coin because, let's face it, it is difficult to buy something at $800 you once bought at $50. Irrational, yes, but this is reality.
1) More bad news expected from China.
2) As much as people want to shrug off mining centralization concerns, it is a problem which Bitcoin will eventually have to decisively confront. Ghash reminded us of this.
3) Regular people are still having a hard time getting Bitcoin. If they can't buy it with a credit card online, they are puzzled.
4) Merchant adoption is great, but it is simply encouraging holders to liquidate. Currency outflow > inflow implies a price drop. The inflow isn't as high as it should be due to 3). I'm guessing holders are slow to replenish their coin because, let's face it, it is difficult to buy something at $800 you once bought at $50. Irrational, yes, but this is reality.
When do people get those tax refunds
Mid- to end-Februar 
I'm betting on an April rally 
When do people get those tax refunds or whatever you call them in US? How big those usually are for normal people? In my country they are paid in early december and range something like 300-3000€ usually.
November's drama aside, hasn't the norm for Bitcoin been a gradual ascent with periods of stasis?
The OP thinks of September 2013
You seem pretty confident.
The OP thinks of September 2013, I think of late April 2013.
The cost of mining has gone down and people are still paying off their Christmas credit card bills so January is likely to be a little slow. Once people start getting their tax returns in the US, we're likely to see another March/April run.
I kind of agree that we will be hovering around the $800/coin area for a little while. I think it will range from like $775-$850 for some time, unless some major news comes out that makes people jump in either direction.
Blast from the past
Sounds a bit like projection of wish fulfilment to me.
Getting a bit cheeky, huh? :D
I agree that ~800 (bitstamp) is a focal price point. But I also see us in a similar spot as 6 days ago. When we finally broke upwards on Jan 10, it was about as weak as it could get. Now we're back at the 800 level, and to me at least it looks slightly more likely that it's going to resolve downwards this time. That's not a firm conviction though, just based on two trends I keep an eye on that we're touching now and didn't touch 6 days ago, and based on the total exhaustion of volume.
I agree that ~800 (bitstamp) is a focal price point. But I also see us in a similar spot as 6 days ago. When we finally broke upwards on Jan 10, it was about as weak as it could get. Now we're back at the 800 level, and to me at least it looks slightly more likely that it's going to resolve downwards this time. That's not a firm conviction though, just based on two trends I keep an eye on that we're touching now and didn't touch 6 days ago, and based on the total exhaustion of volume.
And next peak is $7000, then correction to $5000 which becomes the new $820 
Blast from the past
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