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Topic: 8/8/11 and the big "meh" - page 2. (Read 3466 times)

full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
firstbits: 121vnq
August 08, 2011, 04:08:46 PM
#10
With a downgrade on US debt, institutions will be forced by their own policies to sell those risky assets off of their books.

No they won't, not unless another rating institution also drops them. Nearly all have a 2/3 rating policy.

Also, looking at the markets, treasuries have strengthened today, just like I predicted. Even if they are supposedly "less safe" than they were last week, the look a hell of a lot better than equities at the moment
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
August 08, 2011, 03:29:28 PM
#9
Just closed my short positions and will sit on the sidelines for a bit.  I expect a bear rally sometime this week.  Even in the worse panics like the crash of '87 when the Dow dropped 22.6% in one day, a bear rally usually follows.  In the case of 1987, the Dow gained 5.9% and 10.1% on Oct 20th and 21st, respectively.  The bottom wasn't registered until six weeks later on December 4th.
hero member
Activity: 548
Merit: 502
So much code.
August 08, 2011, 03:20:29 PM
#8
The reason the AAA rating means anything to the markets is that institutional investors are often limited to AAA-rated instruments. Hence, in 2008 with the mortgage market dipped, everything dropped like a brick because there were AAA stamps on something that was very risky. But the AAA rating allowed large amounts of institutional money to be placed on CDOs and the other fancy instruments that the finance world cooked up.

With a downgrade on US debt, institutions will be forced by their own policies to sell those risky assets off of their books.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
August 08, 2011, 09:19:53 AM
#7
Governments, like people, operate on debt.  It's been that way since the banking system started (long before Europe even knew the world was round).

Republicans have decided to make a news item out of this because they have nothing of real substance to talk about. 

When GWB (aka "the decider") decided to start two large scale military engagements (ie., wars), they never complained where the money was going to come from.  Now, they're  complaining that we're spending too much.

Morons are like roaches.  You can step on millions of them but they always come back.

hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
August 08, 2011, 03:48:00 AM
#6
Didn't the new dept bill only reduce spending in the BILLIONS of $$$ over 10 YEARS... when the deficit is in the TRILLIONS?


I mean, that's pretty lousy.

The largest cuts have not been agreed upon yet and have been effectively postponed until December 23rd.  We will see more fireworks and political posturing before the year is done.  How much really gets cut remains to be seen.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
August 08, 2011, 02:06:13 AM
#5
Didn't the new debt bill only reduce spending in the BILLIONS of $$$ over 10 YEARS... when the deficit is in the TRILLIONS?


I mean, that's pretty lousy.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
firstbits: 121vnq
August 08, 2011, 02:05:41 AM
#4
European default still seems much more likely in medium term.

This will spur China to start squawking a bit more about a new reserve currency. Whether or not they actually start selling dollars remains to be seen.

I think what prompted downgrade was not fundamentals (those have always been crappy) but the fact that the political process to get debt ceiling raised was so dysfunctional and default was actually floated as a legitimate possibility.

There is no safe haven at the moment, where are people going to move that much money anyway? Expect a PM pop and $2k target by fall for AU.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
August 08, 2011, 01:39:07 AM
#3
What I find pathetic is that the USA politicians always pointed to the AAA rating as proof that everything was fine. Now that one agency has changed the rating they blame the agency. Well, why were they using the agency rating as proof before then? The agency ratings are only good when they say what the politicians want them to say?

It's not just the USA that's the problem here, not by a long shot.

Also, I don't recall any predominant rhetorical meme put forth by politicians that cited S&P with any measure of assurance.  I'd assign more credibility to bond ratings given by Bozo the clown.

The main argument I've heard lately (by many, not just politicians) is that the US economy is the largest and most powerful in the world.  If its government debt is AA+ then the rest of the world is AA+ or worse.  

IOW, if the US defaults, then the entire world goes down the drain.

But the US won't default.  That's a non issue.  The world won't go down the drain.  But discussions about it are good for News TV ratings.

It's like saying the sun won't rise tomorrow.

The main issues are related economic growth and how to stimulate that, plain and simple.  Sadly, that discussion is more involved than most people have time or willingness to listen.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
Radix-The Decentralized Finance Protocol
August 08, 2011, 01:21:51 AM
#2
Everybody knows the USA government debt ratings were as valid as the mortgage ratings. The USA government debt should have lost its AAA long ago, so the real question is why is S&P downgrading it now.

An article in The Atlantic speculated that it was a mesure of presure against the Obama administration so they changed some of the regulation of Frank-Dodd Act in favor of S&P. Who knows.

What I find pathetic is that the USA politicians always pointed to the AAA rating as proof that everything was fine. Now that one agency has changed the rating they blame the agency. Well, why were they using the agency rating as proof before then? The agency ratings are only good when they say what the politicians want them to say?
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
August 08, 2011, 01:13:11 AM
#1
1.  Tomorrow, the world will NOT end.

2.  S&P rated top financial institutions as AAA before they went bankrupt in 2008 (eg., S&P has no clue what they're talking about). 

3.  S&P executives may be prosecuted for their shady roles (see above) and have likely realized that the best defense is a good offense.

4.  The market doesn't care about S&P.  The market cares about economic data (eg., unemployment).

5.  The market will likely recover sooner than most think.

6.  What's bad for the stock market and global currencies might be good for bitcoins.
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