CydeWeys, I'll take the bet if you're interested.
After the next difficulty change if the difficulty is <=430,000 I win. >430,000 you win. 1BTC stake.
(edit: changed <430,000 to <=430,000)
Topic: A bet on the future difficulty level - page 2. (Read 3739 times)
I'm not too confident in my bet at 500,000. I was just sure his claim of 360,000 was too low, and 500,000 was the first thing I came up with as a counter-offer. I'm not too sure of my other bet, and you're offering worse terms than that one, so I'll have to say no.
But I'll still consider myself to have won if the actual difficulty level is not "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000", even if there is no money riding on it
But I'll still consider myself to have won if the actual difficulty level is not "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000", even if there is no money riding on it
Hey now, you said it would be "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000". 
It sounds like the terms of our bet would be under 400,00, you win, over 400,000, I win.
As for GPG, there are good instructions here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/ Basically, you download the software, generate a key, register it with the gribble bot on #bitcoin-otc, and then from there I can pretty easily show you how to sign a message with your key.
Haha, no way I'm taking that bet! That leaves you with all the room for a mistake in judgement on my prediction. It sounds like the terms of our bet would be under 400,00, you win, over 400,000, I win.As for GPG, there are good instructions here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/ Basically, you download the software, generate a key, register it with the gribble bot on #bitcoin-otc, and then from there I can pretty easily show you how to sign a message with your key.
My bet is that the difficulty will be 400,000, and unless you're changing your mind, your bet is that it will be 500,000. That leaves 450,000 as the center point. If you want to go over/unders, then my bet is that it will be below 450,000. Take it or leave it, but it sounded like you were pretty confident in your bet at 500,000.
Hey now, you said it would be "way closer to 360,000 than 500,000". It sounds like the terms of our bet would be under 400,00, you win, over 400,000, I win.
As for GPG, there are good instructions here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/ Basically, you download the software, generate a key, register it with the gribble bot on #bitcoin-otc, and then from there I can pretty easily show you how to sign a message with your key.
It sounds like the terms of our bet would be under 400,00, you win, over 400,000, I win.As for GPG, there are good instructions here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/ Basically, you download the software, generate a key, register it with the gribble bot on #bitcoin-otc, and then from there I can pretty easily show you how to sign a message with your key.
1. You should have bet 360,001. 
The way we made the bet was the only fair way to do it. Otherwise he could just as easily have turned it around on me and insisted that he won for any value below 500,000. Setting the victory condition in the middle of the two bets was the only way that actually allowed both sides to agree to it.
2. The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000. Just my opinion though, we'll see.
Want to put money on it?
I'll bet 1 BTC that the next difficulty jump will end up with difficulty closer to 400,000 than 500,000. Deal? I have no idea how to GPG though, you'll have to teach me. Or you can go off of my feedback at bitcoinfeedback.com, either way. But if you agree here on the forums, that will be taken as a binding betting agreement.
1. You should have bet 360,001.
The way we made the bet was the only fair way to do it. Otherwise he could just as easily have turned it around on me and insisted that he won for any value below 500,000. Setting the victory condition in the middle of the two bets was the only way that actually allowed both sides to agree to it.
2. The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000. Just my opinion though, we'll see.
Want to put money on it?
Two things.
1. You should have bet 360,001.
2. The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000. Just my opinion though, we'll see.
1. You should have bet 360,001.
2. The difficulty will be way closer to 360,000 than 500,000. Just my opinion though, we'll see.
Well the increase happens between block 127007 and block 127008, right? Anyway, it's pretty clear what was meant.
I could see this bet going either way. Hopefully that makes it a good bet. And now that I have some money riding on it, I'm very curious to see the outcome.
I could see this bet going either way. Hopefully that makes it a good bet. And now that I have some money riding on it, I'm very curious to see the outcome.
won't it still be 244139 at block 127007
now block 127008 is a different matter. I think ~360000 sounds about right. hard to see it going >400000
now block 127008 is a different matter. I think ~360000 sounds about right. hard to see it going >400000
Black8 and I have entered into a bet on the difficulty level at the next increase. Both of us are registered on #bitcoin-otc. Here are the signatures confirming the bet:
This is my first time making a bet that is cryptographically sound, so that's fun. None of the bets I've made in real life have been nearly this rock solid.
So, the question is, who do you guys think is going to win? Discuss
Code:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
CydeWeys and black8 enter into a bet of 1 BTC on what the difficulty level
will increase to at block 127007. CydeWeys bets 500,000. Black8 bets
360,000. Accordingly, the one who wins is the one whose bet is closer to
the actual difficulty level (i.e. if the difficulty level is less than or
equal to 430,000, Black9 wins; if it is greater, CydeWeys wins). If
CydeWeys wins, Black8 will send payment to address
1LP3DrXnJPcjCwR3FmTHR57R2nf6V1jKSJ. If Black8 wins, CydeWeys will send
payment to 15atSSWBCP5X3QPVVWb6faTZ1PRP6AeQ4s.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (MingW32)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=b3Fg
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
CydeWeys and black8 enter into a bet of 1 BTC on what the difficulty level
will increase to at block 127007. CydeWeys bets 500,000. Black8 bets
360,000. Accordingly, the one who wins is the one whose bet is closer to
the actual difficulty level (i.e. if the difficulty level is less than or
equal to 430,000, Black9 wins; if it is greater, CydeWeys wins). If
CydeWeys wins, Black8 will send payment to address
1LP3DrXnJPcjCwR3FmTHR57R2nf6V1jKSJ. If Black8 wins, CydeWeys will send
payment to 15atSSWBCP5X3QPVVWb6faTZ1PRP6AeQ4s.
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.11 (GNU/Linux)
iEYEARECAAYFAk3W5pMACgkQvCEYTv+mBWcvZgCgi85cpwiuBARF7g9yZCPkeldk
Y5cAoIpNDZgjV5xxi8kIspvMu6KDnBrH
=/SAv
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
This is my first time making a bet that is cryptographically sound, so that's fun. None of the bets I've made in real life have been nearly this rock solid.
So, the question is, who do you guys think is going to win? Discuss
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