Topic: A Big Move Is Coming Very Soon...Up or Down? - page 3. (Read 696 times)

A break upwards is many times more likely than a break downwards. The market right now is showing all the signs of being in the transition stage between bear market and bull market - low volatility, a stable price, sitting just above the firmly established bottom of the market. Also making this more clear is that all year Bitcoin has been bouncing around between the bottom of ~$6000 and lower highs: first around $11,700, then $9900, then $8500, then $7400. With the final lower high of the bear market only about $1500 above the firmly established bottom of the market there is no more room for a lower high to take place.

The only way for a bear market to continue is if like the OP says it broke down significantly through the bottom of the market, but that bottom has been established for 8 months and held support four times throughout those 8 months. There is very little reason to think the price will drop from here. We are likely looking at possibly another month or two of prices between the bottom ~$6000 and the last lower high of the bear market ~$7400 and probably by the end of the year we'll see a break back up to $8k, signally the start of the next long bull market which will likely last through 2020 or thereabouts.

I suppose it is even possible that a break out to start the next long bull market starts this month, but personally I think it'll at least another month or two.

The first sign of the start of the next bull market will be when the price breaks above $7500, thus ending the bearish pattern of lower highs that has been going on since the start of the year. And then when it breaks above $8500 to beat the second to last lower high of the bear market that will be the signal that confirms we are definitely in the very early stages of the next bull run. That will be the sign for any very conservative investors who still have money sitting on the side that you need to throw it all in. But right now is the best chance to put in money sitting on the side, as it is extremely unlikely to go lower ever again and we'll probably be looking at a rising price starting in the next two months.

the only big move that i can think of is the ETF approval which will be an upward movement bringing the price up to somewhere near $10k otherwise even ETF denial is not enough for breaking the buy support at the bottom which has been proven to be $6k and be very strong.
there is always possibility of unexpected things to happen but we are not speculating based on unexpected things but only what we can expect and predict.

I think up is more likely. If it were to drop down there was nothing keeping it from going down right now, there are no buyers and no hype so if anyone wants to bring it down they can and they would had no trouble at all doing it, the prices are staying still almost all day which means you can collect 50+ million dollars worth of bitcoin everyday for the past 50 days at these levels and than all of a sudden sell all of it together at once and drop the price, no one would have done anything to stop you.

However to get it bigger you would have to get prepared a lot harder and need bigger capital. So, I think we are preparing for a lift off. Usually how down a market goes, it will lean double to triple of it. I remember some Forex analyst told me about the downtrend, it is like a power gaining phase for a future upward movement, who knows, bitcoin market might be in power gaining phase right now.

The side way price movement has last for long and we expect that the bullish trend will soon resume.  I think thing are in bullish directions except something very bad happened to the market before we can talk of bearish trend.

there are other considerations. selling triggers tax liability. and if he's in the USA or similar, that can make a huge difference because short term gains are taxed at much higher rates than long term (1+ year held) gains.

then there's KYC and banking fees. or, if he wanted to hold $ on the exchange to catch the bottom, he's exposed to third party exchange risk.

i only ever sell to cover real life expenses. otherwise i hedge with leveraged futures with a small portion of my coins. but i always hold my coins through downtrends. i've been bitten hard by exchanges over the years. between that and taxes, it's a no brainer.

plus, there's always the possibility that he'd be selling the bottom and have to chase back higher. not uncommon in crypto. it's what turns a lot of traders into hodlers.

the only thing these two statements say is that you are either trolling or you are dumb specially since you are making a speculation topic!
if you truly think there is a drop of that size which is more than 50% drop then any sane person would not say "i'm holding", a sane person instead will think about selling so that he can double his investment buying back at the bottom after the 50% drop which he is expecting.

 Uptrend in my opinion but not sure if it will surge to the current all time high value because market still not stable which probably around 10k before year end unless if the market growth rate constantly increasing until November which is a high chance to exceed more up to year end.

+1. It looks like the kind of long term base we see in stocks all the time. We haven't seen the "sign of strength" (to use Wyckoff's term) to confirm that accumulation is happening, but I suspect we'll see it soon in the coming weeks.

I'd say I'm 70/30 bullish. I definitely wouldn't rule out the "bear run to $3,000" scenario. But I'm still holding my spot coins and I also have a long open with stops comfortably below key levels.

Usually in most markets, whether it be stocks or commodities. When its in a long bear downtrend and the volume is non-existant it usually implies the bottom might be set.

Usually when the markets are choppy like they are today its due to lack of volume because most sellers are out of the market and there is nobody left to sell except maybe people selling on margin to short the markets even lower.

So anything is possible, I might be wrong and we might still go downwards but with the price action we have now with the low volume and the price essentially being like 15% from the yearly low, we might go up from here.

For me I think $6000 price is strong enough and I think it will not go down to $3000 because I know people not want to see the price dump so they better to hold it until bull run start. And one more thing people experience a long bearish so they know what to do now they will not dump again.

I don't wanna see bitcoin down to 3000 dollars i think thats enough 9 months of dropping the value and the remining 3 months is for the pumping the value again. Big move will happen this month and next coming month so be ready and we will see again 5 digit value for the bitcoin.

i'm glad to see it's mostly bears in here! this bodes well for holders.


i'm leaning bullish. but i'm sitting tight waiting for a breakout, not trading right now.

the 2018 correction looks like a triple zig zag, ending with a terminal triangle. normally, a bearish flag would have fallen to new lows long ago. it would have made sense to crash again in june when bears made new lows. instead, bears were rejected into another sideways range.

trading wisdom says that a downtrend followed by sideways should imply continuation. however, since bears have repeatedly failed to force resumption of the downtrend, i believe we're creating lots of potential bottom sellers/shorters that will fuel a medium term uptrend.

I also believe we will see a dump, but down to $4888. Some people made a correlation between this value and the $188 bottom in the 2013-2015 bear market.

I believe it will happen until January next year.

Well everything is destined to happen in crypto market

But about the $3,000 drop?no I don’t think that drastic bitcoin price can go before the run.maybe its enough to say that $4-5,000 is the bottom value before the great bull runs on the story again

Since both of us are holding the number one coin for long now.yet theres no good movements happening

I think a big move is coming but over an extended period, so in crypto terms maybe not a big move. I think within the next 6 months we will either be up or down by 100%/50% in one direction or the other. Let's wait and see, history would suggest it would be the upwards direction but eventually bitcoin must turn bearish for the long term.

I think that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below 6000. In my production, very soon we will be expected to rise to at least 8000. I expect that the price of Bitcoin will be 10,000 on the New Year.

Your thread will unlikely become FUD if you preferred the amount to be lower than $6000 USD that many consider being the floor for the price of BTC, But I would be guessing that the price of bitcoin would be down and the price that we might see will be at $5800 mark or $6100 for sure, and it will not gonna become lower than that, I am really thinking that the bearish market will unlikely make the value of bitcoin stiff and gonna come back and forth in that floor of price and will stay there until next year perhaps.

Why most of the people that are predicting does have similarity in price? most of you guys are saying that it will go down up to $3000 before taking another action to go up.

When we reach $3000, the same words from them as well. IMO, I don't think we will be there soon. $6500 is a strong support.

3000 is too low prediction for me but i agree that 6000 might not hold. Perhaps after breaking 5500-6000 support big whale will appear and use those extra supply from panic selling to buy it and start new bull run. That happends. It may also find another support lower but in my opinion closer to 4.5k range.