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Topic: A bitcoin retirement plan with a disturbing length of years. - page 2. (Read 529 times)

hero member
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Why do people diversify their portfolios and not focus on bitcoin? They also don't trust bitcoin?


No I don't think it is because of trust that people won't stay with only bitcoin but however, there is a saying that a wise man doesn't rely on only one source of income to be financially stable and satisfied to take care of the family. Diversification is economically wise. Agreed that bitcoin has a level of guarantee but some other coins have survived through time so to also keep some reserve with etheruem is quite reasonable. Apart from bitcoin and etheruem, some other altcoins have also fluctuated and survived like bitcoin, variety is the spice of life as it is said.
legendary
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16 years for me isn't that long. Take note that the Stock Market is existing for many years already, and there are some studies that have been conducted, and on that, it shows that if you just invested on index funds for a certain amount of years, it's 100% certain that you will get profit.

Of course stock market isn't equal to cryptocurrency because like you said, we don't know the future of it, but I'm pretty sure that many here are holding their Bitcoin for more than 5 years already, some might even go as high as 10 years, and there might be some that's higher. As for me, I'm planning to hold my Bitcoin for at least 5 years then from that, I don't know what I will do with my Bitcoins.

Well if history repeats itself, Bitcoin in 16 years might reach as high as $500,000 or a million. We don't know what can be the price of it at that time, but history shows that the trend of the price of Bitcoin is uptrend... so I guess I can say that your colleague's decision might be right, but of course there are some risks to it like the fact that we don't know what can Bitcoin be 16 years from now, and the like.
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With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.
Actually both are good thoughts in terms of investment but I will suggest and appreciate the idea of OP's friend as he wants to invest 20% of his salary every month. This strategy will help him to get more returns. But if you suggest to invest in every 4 years then he might miss the bullrun.
And we should keep trust on Bitcoin because mass adoption is ongoing and it's totally decentralized and transparent. And Bitcoin already proved about it's potential in 14 years by creating history again and again.
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If he saw that the price of Bitcoin could increase very high, say above $ 100k-$ 250k, he would be tempted to sell it and decide to retire early. With such high profit potential, I don't think he will wait until 16 especially when he sees huge profits right before his eyes.

16 years is not a long time because, with busy work, 16 years will pass quickly. But I wonder can he stay invested in Bitcoin for 16 years? Because most people can't wait until 16 years, especially if the price of Bitcoin can increase very much after the next halving.

He needs to have a strong hand holding his Bitcoins because he must have seen the price fluctuate frequently during that waiting time. Emotional control is needed in investing in Bitcoin so that he can hold on to the target he wants.
legendary
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As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

Taking 50% where? I don't understand what you mean.
Do you mean selling 50% of the investment every 4 years? What is he supposed to do with the money? Wait for a bear market to buy more bitcoin? It's a retirement plan, so he probably wants the money to remain not taxed until he starts spending it and he doesn't want to pay exchange fees every few years. Your strategy would work only if bitcoin followed 4 year cycles for the next 3 cycles.
jr. member
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In my opinion we should not invest for too long, the market looks pretty good right now but we don't know what they will be like 10 years from now, in my opinion you should gather your capital and buy one time only. at least 1 year and sell them when you see your profit enough. I usually accumulate assets and buy bitcoin at the end of the year, when investors are looking for a way out of this market
hero member
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I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

If I were you, just let him do what he's planning, maybe the best thing to do is help him expand his understanding of Bitcoin, especially the things he doesn't know and really understands right now.

Because I believe that if you do that with him as a friend and for sure that you won't need to tell him about something you think shouldn't be done, but he himself will change the plans of what he wants to do. What will happen is that you are right that it is possible that the result will not be good.
sr. member
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I have this colleague of mine at workplace who is a bitcoin enthusiast just like me. Often times at work when we're less occupied with our job we kind of spend such moment's  discussing about bitcoin generally. Two days ago he was telling me about his plans to start buying BTC with 20% of his salary every month for the rest of the years he has to retirement that's when he will then take it all. And based on the company total years of service he has 16 years left to his retirement.

With the way he was talking to me about it he appears to know exactly what he's about to do and how its going to end for him. But for me his idea has left some apprehension and questioning in my head due to the length of years (good 16 years) he is going to keep up with. From my angle the years are too much as no one can certainly say for sure about what the future of cryptocurrency and bitcoin holds despite how positive it could be looking today.

In my opinion I wanted to talk to him with a logical conclusion why he should reduce the length of years, not to do it at a stretch of straight 16years he has in mind without applying risk management technique, maybe by splitting those 16years into four interjecting years. As in he should in every 4 years be taking 50% of whatever total amount plus profit  till it gets to the 16years he planned. At least in worst case scenario this method could save him something reliable to fall back onto.

How do you guys think about this idea of mine for my colleague? Can it really be helpful to him in the long run or it may just obstruct his original plan killing the whole idea?  Please all opinions are entertained but whatever your opinion might be, also try to put the length of years involved into consideration.(16 years)

I mean it wasn't actually a bad idea, for sure investing in Bitcoin for years is great and it might actually and could easily give you a huge amount of profit in the future. But what he just needs to do is just to observe the market and be updated on it, and at the same time learn how to sell and buy, its actually an advantage since he could just HODL for a long time because the money was just for his retirement so that means he could buy and sell when the price increase or drop at any moment.

He just needs to watch out on bear and bull run since if he's just going to HODL for 16 years that might not make any sense, I mean its possible that it's going to be a huge profit but it doesnt really guarantee retirement, The best way to do it is to watch the bear and bull run market, at least sell a small percentage or half of it on a bull run and rebuy again on the bear market. With that, you could easily guarantee the profit since you are taking profit every time the market price skyrocket.
hero member
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Most people hold their retirement funds in fiat currencies, even though fiat is prone to a high level of inflation, confiscation by the bank or government or a collapse of the financial institution that is holding the funds, but yet people save their money in fiat for longer than 16 years and do not consider it to be ridiculous.

There's nothing ridiculous about holding and accumulating BTC for 16 years, BTC gives the person control of their funds, it is censorship resistant and permissionless and as long as the person owns the keys and do not lose it, the funds will be safe, so it is a better choice for long term holdings. If you're worried about what BTC's price will be at that time, it isn't possible for anyone to know, but because the supply will continue to reduce and because of the usefulness of BTC the demand will also continue to increase, then surely the price will be good even at that time.

If everything goes as smoothly as you think, investing and holding bitcoin is almost perfect.  but the OP's worries are not in vain as we have nothing to prove that the bitcoin price will definitely be better in 16 years.  i am not denying that the demand for bitcoin is increasing every day, but there is no guarantee that it will remain for the next 16 years.  I sympathize with the OP's concern, we will still invest in bitcoin but should plan to diversify rather than focus our entire retirement plan on bitcoin.
sr. member
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It's not disturbing, it's doable.

16years look like something too far in the future but it's not impossible to plan towards such period of time with Bitcoin, with many institutions getting into Bitcoin, it looks like something that can easily survive the next 20 years.

If you can't do this, that's you, please do not talk your friend out of this great plan of his, and moreover this is a plan target with just 20% of his income, I have no reason not to even encourage him.

with 20% of his monthly income, it shows that he understands the risks, be more encouraging to him instead.
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From you stand point on this you actually don't believe in Bitcoin, even though I find it weird that you here already and still have doubts about Bitcoin, despite that you are always entitled to your opinion, but this is that rare case someone from this forum comes out open to write that they had a discussion with someone else and tried talking them about their concerns on Bitcoin.

If you don't think Bitcoin would Last as long as 16yrs what makes you feel what ever alternative you have would also last that long, nothing is certain not even fiat, the world keeps advancing and before Fiat we have had other means of exchange. I think your friend is making a smart choice,the only let down I see is that he may be affecting his standard of living giving out that percentage of his salary in saving for Bitcoin depending on what the salary looks like.

Not that he doubts bitcoin, but as you also said, nothing is certain, and everything is risky, and bitcoin is no exception. I invest and have great faith in the future of bitcoin, but that doesn't mean I have to put all my faith in bitcoin alone without any backup plan. And there's nothing wrong with questioning the future of bitcoin, as it's been around for more than a decade and hasn't been legalized worldwide, suggesting that there's still a lot of risk surrounding bitcoin.
Why do people diversify their portfolios and not focus on bitcoin? They also don't trust bitcoin?
legendary
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I mean it's just his choice, why you bother and you need to change his decision?

It's true we don't know about the future and what will Bitcoin looks after 16 years, but he has a control over his decision, it's not like he's programmed to buy Bitcoin every month for 16 years. If Bitcoin hacked, get banned by every countries and the price went to $1, he will rethink to keep DCA-ing Bitcoin.

He can just stop after 5 years or 10 years etc.
hero member
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I don't know how big that 20% of his salary is but that's a good investment plan, because the whole 80% is available for him to use or spend on other things, I don't see anything wrong with his plan, there is only one advice that I can give someone like your friend, and that's if or when Bitcoin makes a new all time high, he should not sit on the gains because he planned for 16years accumulation, he should take profits and buy back when Bitcoin faces some difficult time again, there is no point accumulating Bitcoin and watching is shoot through the roof and you just keep staring at your Bitcoin wallet for what it has become, take profit.

There are other things he can use part of the profit for, just for a promised future sake, like other business that will run in his name?

Yhiaali3, he doesn't have to sell the 25$ of his Bitcoin in bull market, I except him to sell everything for USDT, his retirement plan will be fulfill in a short period of time doing this, after selling all the Bitcoin, he should wait for the biggest correction and buy again, it's like selling at 67,000$ and buying back at 17,000$, he will have more quantities of BTC using this method.
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16 years is not a disturbing number of years, it's a regular number if you're thinking long term investments. If one is not certain what it could look like in 16 years then you are equally not certain how the next day or week would affect the currency.

We sometimes refer to how cheap it was 10-12 years ago, but to have been able to benefit from the price increase you need to have held for a long period of time, close to the retirement plan of your friend.
Sixteen years is not too much if he can be able to afford it. If investing 20% of his salary wouldn't affect his expenses, then it not a bad decision.  If he has a family it shouldn't affect the provision of the basic needs and other key expense. It should also be fund that the individual can afford to lose. It is risky to keep it that long but the benefit is commensurate with the risk. Every business has risk, recently a new government in my state began to destroy buildings that was allocated by the former government. So real estate also has risks. When I checked how much people bought bitcoin few years ago, I always wished I bought the coin long time ago. So in order to avoid regret, keep as much as you can afford to hold.    
hero member
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Retirement planning involves careful consideration of multiple factors. Age plays a crucial role as it determines the investment time horizon. The financial goals should account for the risk associated with approaching retirement. It's beneficial to diversify investments to both stimulate personal growth and secure additional income sources. Furthermore, healthcare expenses, which can vary by country, must be factored in, particularly during old age. The size of one's family and any dependents should also be taken into account. Lastly, both the current and desired future lifestyles need to be considered when planning for retirement.
legendary
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Holding Bitcoin all this long time may be a bit exaggerated, but perhaps from your friend's point of view he is looking for a comfortable retirement and he sees that the price of Bitcoin at that time will rise dramatically to achieve this comfortable retirement.

But in my opinion, this long period can be divided into at least four stages. He can sell 25% of his Bitcoin every four years, for example, after each halving, as the price of bitcoin is expected to peak, then he can buy a larger amount after the correction or keep the profits if he wants.
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I do the same because i also budget a few per cent of my salary to buy bitcoin every month but in this case the difference is probably in terms of plan.
i have thought of this before but i was sound knowing bitcoin proper, now I want to tell you that Bitcoin investment that you are not interested to sell within short space of time I wish to join deducting a specific amount of my salary to purchase bitcoin everyday or months received salary, i believe that with such i will have so many bitcoin since I'm a fresher in bitcoins investment, by the time I have stayed up to three years in buying bitcoin every month i received salary for three years i would Have make a lot saves through slow buying and investing in bitcoins.

I want to ask if it's good for somebody to use half of it's saves to invest in bitcoins, will the person make it in bitcoins industry or it's good for someone to start small in bitcoin investment with little capital because of lose that is involve for Bitcoin investment, in my local environment some of us is discourage of bitcoins because of the negative information people has been telling of bitcoins, i know that with this forum i will understand the necessary information I need to get exploit in bitcoins and fall back to base and transpired the information of bitcoins to them in different way.

Learning is a continuous process
hero member
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16 years of saving 20% of his salary into BTC may be a wrong and risky move because of the uncertainty. I feel he should not dive into this if the saving is really towards retirement.
Although there is a risk behind this, I don't think it is the wrong investment due to the future we see in Bitcoin. This is a great plan, and I am sure he will benefit from it.

Quote
I will also suggest that he can do like 5% in BTC for the duration of 16 years(Take the interest as often as possible) In my own opinion,20% is too high. However, if the retirement plan stated above is not available in his workplace then he should invest 15% out of the 20% in a more secure investment because he's saving towards retirement while 5% goes into BTC.
20% in BTC investment is not a poor idea, nor is it a risky investment, as you are saying.

This demonstrates to me that you did not trust Bitcoin, which is why you are concerned about investing 20% of your salary for the next 16 years.
Remember, the employer should have a fixed retirement savings account; hence, if he risks investing 20% of his salary for the remaining period, he has a very good strategy to have enough money to spend after retirement.
hero member
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OP, your friend has great plans for his future and how he's preparing for his retirement.
But the question is, how can he do it consistently with 20% of his salary every month? It's hard for me, of course.
I can imagine that it is difficult to stay consistent with 20% of his total salary, with a journey of 16 years it is not a short one but on the way everything will not go smoothly according to plan, there are always urgent needs every month.

You have to see how much salary you get and what your lifestyle is. Everyone will not be disturbed if they do not have dependents every month and the salary they have is only used for themselves, not for other important needs. For those who have many dependents every month and have to pay for the needs of their wife and children, it will be difficult. setting aside just 10% of the salary is quite a lot, but sometimes there is nothing that can be set aside due to emergency needs. Buying bitcoins every month consistently with money set aside for salary is a good idea, but needs adjustments to all conditions. If it's consistently done it's the same as connecting, but with Bitcoin investments that have the opportunity to go up and provide benefits.
How much salary and lifestyle is of course that is a factor plus if they are already married and have children who are already in school of course the dependents will be even greater, usually the basic monthly salary will be very limited if someone who already has dependents in them will paying more each month for settled needs.
Emergency money must also be prepared in times of urgency so that an emergency fund will be our savior in an urgent situation.

I know that everyone, even though they are married, has a frugal lifestyle plus a large monthly salary, for example, of course they can set aside a little for bitcoin, if their salary is above $1500 I think they invest a little in bitcoin.
legendary
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MAaaN...!! CUT THAT STUPID SHIT
OP, your friend has great plans for his future and how he's preparing for his retirement.
But the question is, how can he do it consistently with 20% of his salary every month? It's hard for me, of course.

Maintaining a consistent plan is very difficult because the needs that must be met are sometimes never the same from month to month. There are times when you can't save 10% of your salary in one month, sometimes your salary is not even enough because you have to spend it on something very urgent. So I never thought about doing it regularly, but I probably will when I can save some money. Anyway the idea is good, but consistency is not mandatory because you also need to maintain a balance between needs and investment plans.

You have to see how much salary you get and what your lifestyle is. Everyone will not be disturbed if they do not have dependents every month and the salary they have is only used for themselves, not for other important needs. For those who have many dependents every month and have to pay for the needs of their wife and children, it will be difficult. setting aside just 10% of the salary is quite a lot, but sometimes there is nothing that can be set aside due to emergency needs. Buying bitcoins every month consistently with money set aside for salary is a good idea, but needs adjustments to all conditions. If it's consistently done it's the same as connecting, but with Bitcoin investments that have the opportunity to go up and provide benefits.
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