A Blast from the Past: Irrational Optimism and Bitcoin

Bitcoinpro

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Quote from: alyssa85 on May 23, 2016, 08:46:54 AM

Quote from: monsanto on May 22, 2016, 06:09:02 PM

Quote from: Big Dick on May 22, 2016, 07:57:52 AM

50 Bitcoin Experts Reveal (Guess) What Bitcoin Will Be Trading At Within The Next 12 Months
Published in February 2014
Thoughts?

Despite the mocking comments, most people in this nut house would have agreed with them back then Tongue

At the time there was a thread in the speculation sector where this guy was talking about taking out a loan to buy bitcoin (and the price was already at $1000). Several people tried to talk him down, saying don't borrow, but he'd started the thread to convince himself, didn't really take on board what people were saying and pulled the trigger. He was convinced he'd be rich within six months. I don't think we heard from him again.

I called mtgox collapse 1 yr early a lot of my threads where deleted

where's my 2013 prediction of the year award

I even got a 2 week ban

NUFCrichard

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They are all just guessing and it is human nature to exagerrate predictions .

Look in the speculation section, everyone seems to say Bitcoin will be either zero or $1,000,000 in a short while.
It isn't just Bitcoin, alts do exactly the same thing. The price rises by 25% in one day from $1 to $1.25, so they expect it will be $50 in the next year!

Just enjoy the ride, hope that the price goes up, but if you don't believe in the project, sell out!

5h4do3

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lol $10'000-00

I recon in about 5 years about $6000-00 to $8000-00 stable

alyssa85

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Quote from: monsanto on May 22, 2016, 06:09:02 PM

Quote from: Big Dick on May 22, 2016, 07:57:52 AM

50 Bitcoin Experts Reveal (Guess) What Bitcoin Will Be Trading At Within The Next 12 Months
Published in February 2014
Thoughts?

Despite the mocking comments, most people in this nut house would have agreed with them back then Tongue

At the time there was a thread in the speculation sector where this guy was talking about taking out a loan to buy bitcoin (and the price was already at $1000). Several people tried to talk him down, saying don't borrow, but he'd started the thread to convince himself, didn't really take on board what people were saying and pulled the trigger. He was convinced he'd be rich within six months. I don't think we heard from him again.

Bitcoinpro

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Quote from: yayayo on May 23, 2016, 08:33:38 AM

Quote from: Lauda on May 22, 2016, 07:18:08 PM

Exactly what did you expect with these irrational predictions? The similar story applies for every year and especially the halving. I've heard practically almost every single number between 0 and the moon (possibly even beyond). Even if we assume that each of them is a "Bitcoin expert", that still does not give them any credibility when the price is concerned (economics).

99% agree. However there were some "experts" that at least used statistical extrapolation methods (regression lines) to justify their predictions. But as we all know, past performance is no guarantee of future results...

Quote from: Lauda on May 22, 2016, 07:18:08 PM

Quote from: aso118 on May 22, 2016, 08:35:20 AM

The founder of Mastercoin predicted a big range: $500 to $10,000.

Predicting in such a huge span is pointless.

Not, if the price is below $500 and all you want to know is whether an investment would be profitable or not - provided the prediction is credible.

I think a central question when it comes to predictions is: What are the criteria that define a "Bitcoin expert" (and in what field of the broad phenomenon)? It's my impression that journalists call simply all those people "expert" that had some past media appearance in a Bitcoin context.

ya.ya.yo!

Mastercoin inventor got it right without the 20x multiplier from exchanges it's works out at $10,000 dive that by 20 u get 500, though it will

eventually go much higher

yayayo

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Quote from: Lauda on May 22, 2016, 07:18:08 PM

Exactly what did you expect with these irrational predictions? The similar story applies for every year and especially the halving. I've heard practically almost every single number between 0 and the moon (possibly even beyond). Even if we assume that each of them is a "Bitcoin expert", that still does not give them any credibility when the price is concerned (economics).

99% agree. However there were some "experts" that at least used statistical extrapolation methods (regression lines) to justify their predictions. But as we all know, past performance is no guarantee of future results...

Quote from: Lauda on May 22, 2016, 07:18:08 PM

Quote from: aso118 on May 22, 2016, 08:35:20 AM

The founder of Mastercoin predicted a big range: $500 to $10,000.

Predicting in such a huge span is pointless.

Not, if the price is below $500 and all you want to know is whether an investment would be profitable or not - provided the prediction is credible.

I think a central question when it comes to predictions is: What are the criteria that define a "Bitcoin expert" (and in what field of the broad phenomenon)? It's my impression that journalists call simply all those people "expert" that had some past media appearance in a Bitcoin context.

ya.ya.yo!

ahpku

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Quote from: Lauda on May 22, 2016, 07:18:08 PM

Quote from: aso118 on May 22, 2016, 08:35:20 AM

The founder of Mastercoin predicted a big range: $500 to $10,000.

Predicting in such a huge span is pointless.

Especially if you're gonna blow it anyway. I think the price was from $160 to mid-200s in Feb 2015. So anywhere from 1/3 to half the predicted minimum Cheesy

Lauda

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Terminated.

Exactly what did you expect with these irrational predictions? The similar story applies for every year and especially the halving. I've heard practically almost every single number between 0 and the moon (possibly even beyond). Even if we assume that each of them is a "Bitcoin expert", that still does not give them any credibility when the price is concerned (economics).

Quote from: aso118 on May 22, 2016, 08:35:20 AM

The founder of Mastercoin predicted a big range: $500 to $10,000.

Predicting in such a huge span is pointless.

monsanto

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..like bright metal on a sullen ground.

Quote from: Big Dick on May 22, 2016, 07:57:52 AM

50 Bitcoin Experts Reveal (Guess) What Bitcoin Will Be Trading At Within The Next 12 Months
Published in February 2014
Thoughts?

Despite the mocking comments, most people in this nut house would have agreed with them back then Tongue

franky1

legendary

Activity: 4410

Merit: 4766

most of them quotes dont seem as much about maths(statistics and logic).. but would probably be what they would happily call their "sell out" amount they would want after waiting 12 months sitting on their hands..

EG if i said: "if you had to sell your coins in 12 months how much do you hope you can sell them for"
vs
if i said: "if you done some maths and looked at the economy as a whole, trends, advertising and drama occuring how much do you think bitcoin will be next year"
vs
if i said: "as you are a holder of btc and you want to drum up speculation to spark a price rise from new buyers.. what magic number will you use to try getting many buyers to eat up the orders and raise the price through suggesting they can get rich too"

all of which would give very different answers. yet asking the same basic 12 month question

grapevinebitcoin

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Wow. Hope those guys were diversified and hedged properly. My guess is that they were leveraged in one war or another, though.

kik1977

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Wherever I may roam

And those guys should be called "experts"? Predicting 100k is simply bs..

ahpku

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Quote from: ahpku on November 14, 2015, 09:18:33 AM

Lowered Expectations

~ time passes ~

Fatinan

newbie

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There is no way the bitcoin price will be over $10,000 next year, let alone 100,000. I would not call those people expert.

Kprawn

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All the predictions were very high and I guess they thought it would grow much faster as it did. This just shows us, predictions and speculations are of no value... the technology must speak for it self. I

think the closest any of us came to the moon, were the Willy bot price spike. I know of no other commodity that would grow at a rate of 100% to 1000% per year. We should after all be realistic and

also take the negative factors into consideration, when we do these predictions. Roll Eyes

LiteCoinGuy

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In Satoshi I Trust

Quote from: Bitcoinpro on May 22, 2016, 10:48:31 AM

Quote from: LiteCoinGuy on May 22, 2016, 10:04:49 AM

LiteCoinGuy predicts 1000 USD in 2017 Wink

might never make it that low

that is the bottom. Tongue

crazyivan

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100k? Well, I d hardly call that person a BTC expert. I mean we would all like to see price going up big time but spreading irrational BS s NOT a way to go.

Bitcoinpro

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I'm going to wake up with cold sweats checking the price every morning hoping it hasn't jumped several

hundred dollars hehe greedy exchanges should keep that in check

Bitcoinpro

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Quote from: LiteCoinGuy on May 22, 2016, 10:04:49 AM

LiteCoinGuy predicts 1000 USD in 2017 Wink

might never make it that low

LiteCoinGuy

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Merit: 1014

In Satoshi I Trust

LiteCoinGuy predicts 1000 USD in 2017 Wink

Topic: A Blast from the Past: Irrational Optimism and Bitcoin (Read 1058 times)