Topic: A bull market looms on the horizon - page 2. (Read 741 times)

Volume is growing slowly in all exchanges and price is also increasing which suggest we are near another bull run.
I am not buying at current price but will hold what I have to sell on the peak.

Price might grow rapidly after the current fud over coming hardfork will settle down.

I don't support neither one nor the other. Each of them has contributed to undermine the credibility of bitcoin. Unfortunately bitcoin is experiencing some difficulties due to its decentralization. Can be for the community it'd be better if bitcoin had a Central control point. This control center will come in handy to fight the governments when they start a war.

I don't think anyone is doubting that segwit2x hardfork will not happen. It WILL happen, anyone can fork at any time of the day. What matters is that the fork is resolved quickly, similarly to Bitcoin Cash. It has already been solved, we all know Bitcoin Cash is an altcoin and has no real chance at #1.

Now we got the scammers on Segwit2x trying to turn their chain into the only chain by trying to destroy the legacy one. This is why this situation is not exactly like Bitcoin Cash. At least Bitcoin Cash had the decency to add replay protection and compete on the market. S2X scammers are scared to fight in the market because they know people will dump it for real BTC.

But if prices overheat- like I think they did in the last months - then a correction, even a sharper one, is often healthy to bring the investors "back to reality" (with "correction" I don't refer to a kindergarten crash like the $3000 we saw, but a longer bear market, at least for some months). Those that are into Bitcoin because they really believe in it will then still be in, and from those that are in for the quick money (if they don't do short selling) some will get out, at least for a while.


Can you point me to the source of these numbers? Is it a Bitcointalk poll (if yes, I wouldn't have so much confidence in it)?


Look at these charts from 2013/14: Bitcoincharts

In these months, you see basically three periods of "bounces" before the final capitulation. The first bounce (in December) lasted only a few days and almost reached the previous highs. The second bounce in January/February lasted for about 3 months, reached a respectable high and then deflated into a "slower" crash than the first one. The third one lasted from May to October 2014, but on a much lower level (that would be comparable to today's 1500-2500$). Similar patterns were found in early 2013, and also in 2011.

I agree however with you that if the November fork does have a clear "winner" (and so the worst case scenarios can be ignored) then after it the outlook is most likely bullish, at least for some time.

The predictions you made are definitively possible (10K+ in 2019 is also something I have in mind), they are optimist but not too insane. But I don't think the rise will be linear, there will be at least one longer bear market until 2019, and there are some indications that this could be the case in the last months of 2017.

Danger & risks are an inevitability with all securities.  Especially these days, and especially with something as volatile as BTC.  Still, despite all the FUD recently (some justified, some not so much), the value has remained surprisingly strong through it all.  People were convinced that China's reluctance would be the death of BTC, yet it not only weathered that storm fine but here we sit with the value still not far below it's all time high.  Not to mention my mind has changed about the whole China situation.  I think it's largely a game of misdirection on their part.  They're the best poker players.  They have the fastest growing economy in the world right now by far and it's not by accident.  They never report the amount of their gold reserves and I have a feeling they're being intentionally deceptive about their position on BTC as well.  I'd bet that "if" their involvement were to sink the value of BTC they would be the first ones to take advantage of the situation.  US "analysts" are also doing their best to convince people that BTC's are a bad investment whose bubble will burst at any moment.  And I not only find that all highly suspicious but I don't believe it for a moment.  If the masses of common folk like ourselves in here were to lose confidence they would surely reap the rewards of it.  And we can't allow that to happen.

Also I believe this hard fork will turn out to be a good thing when the smoke clears, and I just took a look at a poll and most people agree.  Something like 41% agree that it will prove advantageous.  27% don't think it will really have much of an affect at all (basically much ado about nothing).  So that makes it 68% that believe it'll either be a good thing or irrelevant, vs. 32% thinking it will be a bad thing.  I thought for sure before I saw the results that that those numbers would basically be backwards.  Wishful thinking doesn't tend to play much of a role in an anonymous poll so almost all of that 68% is likely based on empirical data.  But you can bet that much of the 32% was based on the inevitable fear of the unknown.  I believe this is cause for yet more optimism.

I think that second "bounce" would have happened already, before it stabilized for the length of time that it has now.  I agree with the other person above that a spike just before the fork is likely.  Nobody knows for sure of course where it will go from there, but my money is on another period of stability while people cautiously look for any side effects resulting from the fork.  When they see none, or even that in fact the results are positive I see another bullish run ensuing.  7K by the end of 2017 and 5 digits at some point in 2019 after it slowly but surely climbs as new types of investors can no longer ignore it's potential and add it to their portfolios.

Just how 1 man sees things...

Before fork yes we might see a huge bull rally which might even set new all time high price for bitcoin, price of bitcoin is rising but altcoin's price is not increasing against bitcoin. Which suggest people are selling their alts to get bitcoin before fork so they can get free forked coins which they can later on sell for some free cash.

There is surely a lot more optimism in the market than one month ago. But still the danger has not passed away.

We are still inside of what could be the second bounce after an important high (the ATH of just below $5000). The bounce got really high, but its high has still not reached the values of the previous bounce ($4600-700, reached after the first bigger dump down to ~$3950). If we don't break this value, then a bearish outcome is more likely.

There are also still fundamental risks to be considered, above all a bad outcome of the Segwit2x fork in November - it has become a bit less likely because Segwit2x lost a bit of traction, but it is still possible.

I'm not saying it'll happen today.  I'm not saying it'll happen tomorrow.  This period of relative stability may last quite a bit longer...  But the next major swing will be an upward one.  All the signs I see point to this being a virtual inevitability.  And I've been right before about a few things at least.  I just call it how I see it, nothing more, nothing less.  I've always tried to keep it real with people in here whether it was something they wanted to hear or not.

If you have a few bucks to invest it isn't a bad time to do so.