A bullish opinion for people who panic when the price is dropping

NotLambchop

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Quote from: gjgjg on February 05, 2015, 07:44:11 AM

Quote from: NotLambchop on February 04, 2015, 02:22:46 PM

Usefulness of something with claims to "a good store of value" is related to price, sure. Especially when said price has dropped by ~75% over the past year.
As a payment processor of any size, Bitcoin is a nonstarter--7 transactions per second limit is simply laughable.

New apps and tech can't fix the fundamental flaws of Bitcoin. It's flawed at the conceptual level, with cludgy workarounds (hardforks] now being proposed to smear salve over old sores.

7 per second.... oh dear... wasnt aware of that...

the store of value stuff, im not sure where it comes from but in my mind thats a relative concept with too many variables to be a generally good statement. same logic for anything that is considered to be a store of value though.

i dont know enough about the tech itself to comment on your last part, but it seems to me that a lot of people with much better understandings than i have a lot of faiht in the tech. im sure there are two sides to it all, but the weight seems to be on the positive side - i know 'people' better than the tech, so thats good enough for me :p

"Oh dear" is right. That's called a non-starter.
The tech? Nothing wrong with the tech per se, just doesn't scale & costs 12% of Bitcoin's market cap per year to keep the network secure. So if you don't mind the constantly tanking price, it's all good.

Far as smarter people than you having faith in this tech? They have faith in [seemingly neverending supply of] greater fools, not tech.

gjgjg

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Quote from: Dafar on February 04, 2015, 09:15:39 PM

Usefulness = more people having the incentive to use/acquire bitcoin = more demand = less supply. If 100 million people (1.5% of the population) have the incentive to use bitcoin... how many of those people can own an entire bitcoin when there are only 21million in supply? That's what I meant

ah, id agree with that. imo the usefulness of btc in increasing over time at the moment, so its a matter of waiting for the people to catch on after that. since most people arent aware or know enough about btc to buy in, im betting that part comes later after further increases in usefulness:)

gjgjg

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Quote from: DieJohnny on February 04, 2015, 09:23:56 PM

Why is your activity count and post count the same? I do not understand the activity formula. The help page does not explain it to me....

such confusion

there is a post around here about it, its a merged value of posts + times logged in or something (im usually logged in on one device or another most of the day). if i find the link ill share.

gjgjg

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: NotLambchop on February 04, 2015, 02:22:46 PM

Usefulness of something with claims to "a good store of value" is related to price, sure. Especially when said price has dropped by ~75% over the past year.
As a payment processor of any size, Bitcoin is a nonstarter--7 transactions per second limit is simply laughable.

New apps and tech can't fix the fundamental flaws of Bitcoin. It's flawed at the conceptual level, with cludgy workarounds (hardforks] now being proposed to smear salve over old sores.

7 per second.... oh dear... wasnt aware of that...

the store of value stuff, im not sure where it comes from but in my mind thats a relative concept with too many variables to be a generally good statement. same logic for anything that is considered to be a store of value though.

i dont know enough about the tech itself to comment on your last part, but it seems to me that a lot of people with much better understandings than i have a lot of faiht in the tech. im sure there are two sides to it all, but the weight seems to be on the positive side - i know 'people' better than the tech, so thats good enough for me :p

DieJohnny

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Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:58:24 PM

Not sure exactly what you mean but imo the usefulness is not really related to the price, it works fine regardless of it - assuming its mainly used as a payment/transmission system and we dont consider the mining reward side (which in theory could be compensated by other ways).
Im sure many new apps and techs will come along in the next year or so to make it even easier to use, and they wont be hindered by the price fluctuations.
For other uses Im not sure how price affects it really, apart from investment/trading/speculation - but thats not really a BTC specific function.

Why is your activity count and post count the same? I do not understand the activity formula. The help page does not explain it to me....

such confusion

Dafar

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dafar consulting

Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:58:24 PM

Quote from: Dafar on February 04, 2015, 01:51:17 PM

Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:06:46 PM

Quote from: Dafar on February 03, 2015, 09:36:56 PM

I agree with your post, and that there is plenty of upside despite the current state of fear.... but I'm more concerned it may take 5-10 years for the demand to catch up with the supply where the next rally may happen. A lot of people thing the 2016 block halving will cause a rally but I highly doubt it

why so? a lot can happen in 2015 to be able to call 2016 already, nevermind 5~10 years a head.
the longer the time frame the more confident i personally am about a higher price, but in the btc world a year is an epoch! so i think its totally possible to see a big rally before too long. like a physical fire it can take a while to catch and get burning but once it started it spreads quick:p

anyway, even if it does take 5~10, is that so bad? gives us time to accumulate even more!

It's not a bad thing if it takes that long, but the reason I think it may is because bitcoin needs to be useful, accessible, and simple for it to catch on to any significant portion of the population. This technology isn't as usefull out of the box, it needs to be utilized by applications that are yet to be developed.

Not sure exactly what you mean but imo the usefulness is not really related to the price, it works fine regardless of it - assuming its mainly used as a payment/transmission system and we dont consider the mining reward side (which in theory could be compensated by other ways).
Im sure many new apps and techs will come along in the next year or so to make it even easier to use, and they wont be hindered by the price fluctuations.
For other uses Im not sure how price affects it really, apart from investment/trading/speculation - but thats not really a BTC specific function.

Usefulness = more people having the incentive to use/acquire bitcoin = more demand = less supply. If 100 million people (1.5% of the population) have the incentive to use bitcoin... how many of those people can own an entire bitcoin when there are only 21million in supply? That's what I meant

NotLambchop

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Activity: 378

Merit: 254

Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:58:24 PM

Quote from: Dafar on February 04, 2015, 01:51:17 PM

Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:06:46 PM

Quote from: Dafar on February 03, 2015, 09:36:56 PM

I agree with your post, and that there is plenty of upside despite the current state of fear.... but I'm more concerned it may take 5-10 years for the demand to catch up with the supply where the next rally may happen. A lot of people thing the 2016 block halving will cause a rally but I highly doubt it

why so? a lot can happen in 2015 to be able to call 2016 already, nevermind 5~10 years a head.
the longer the time frame the more confident i personally am about a higher price, but in the btc world a year is an epoch! so i think its totally possible to see a big rally before too long. like a physical fire it can take a while to catch and get burning but once it started it spreads quick:p

anyway, even if it does take 5~10, is that so bad? gives us time to accumulate even more!

It's not a bad thing if it takes that long, but the reason I think it may is because bitcoin needs to be useful, accessible, and simple for it to catch on to any significant portion of the population. This technology isn't as usefull out of the box, it needs to be utilized by applications that are yet to be developed.

Not sure exactly what you mean but imo the usefulness is not really related to the price, it works fine regardless of it - assuming its mainly used as a payment/transmission system and we dont consider the mining reward side (which in theory could be compensated by other ways).

Usefulness of something with claims to "a good store of value" is related to price, sure. Especially when said price has dropped by ~75% over the past year.
As a payment processor of any size, Bitcoin is a nonstarter--7 transactions per second limit is simply laughable.

Quote

Im sure many new apps and techs will come along in the next year or so to make it even easier to use, and they wont be hindered by the price fluctuations.
For other uses Im not sure how price affects it really, apart from investment/trading/speculation - but thats not really a BTC specific function.

New apps and tech can't fix the fundamental flaws of Bitcoin. It's flawed at the conceptual level, with cludgy workarounds (hardforks] now being proposed to smear salve over old sores.

gjgjg

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dafar on February 04, 2015, 01:51:17 PM

Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:06:46 PM

Quote from: Dafar on February 03, 2015, 09:36:56 PM

I agree with your post, and that there is plenty of upside despite the current state of fear.... but I'm more concerned it may take 5-10 years for the demand to catch up with the supply where the next rally may happen. A lot of people thing the 2016 block halving will cause a rally but I highly doubt it

why so? a lot can happen in 2015 to be able to call 2016 already, nevermind 5~10 years a head.
the longer the time frame the more confident i personally am about a higher price, but in the btc world a year is an epoch! so i think its totally possible to see a big rally before too long. like a physical fire it can take a while to catch and get burning but once it started it spreads quick:p

anyway, even if it does take 5~10, is that so bad? gives us time to accumulate even more!

It's not a bad thing if it takes that long, but the reason I think it may is because bitcoin needs to be useful, accessible, and simple for it to catch on to any significant portion of the population. This technology isn't as usefull out of the box, it needs to be utilized by applications that are yet to be developed.

Not sure exactly what you mean but imo the usefulness is not really related to the price, it works fine regardless of it - assuming its mainly used as a payment/transmission system and we dont consider the mining reward side (which in theory could be compensated by other ways).
Im sure many new apps and techs will come along in the next year or so to make it even easier to use, and they wont be hindered by the price fluctuations.
For other uses Im not sure how price affects it really, apart from investment/trading/speculation - but thats not really a BTC specific function.

Dafar

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Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

Quote from: gjgjg on February 04, 2015, 01:06:46 PM

Quote from: Dafar on February 03, 2015, 09:36:56 PM

I agree with your post, and that there is plenty of upside despite the current state of fear.... but I'm more concerned it may take 5-10 years for the demand to catch up with the supply where the next rally may happen. A lot of people thing the 2016 block halving will cause a rally but I highly doubt it

why so? a lot can happen in 2015 to be able to call 2016 already, nevermind 5~10 years a head.
the longer the time frame the more confident i personally am about a higher price, but in the btc world a year is an epoch! so i think its totally possible to see a big rally before too long. like a physical fire it can take a while to catch and get burning but once it started it spreads quick:p

anyway, even if it does take 5~10, is that so bad? gives us time to accumulate even more!

It's not a bad thing if it takes that long, but the reason I think it may is because bitcoin needs to be useful, accessible, and simple for it to catch on to any significant portion of the population. This technology isn't as useful or convenient out of the box by itself, it needs to be utilized by applications that are yet to be developed. And when those applications come, that utilize bitcoin as a digital programmable currency, and use it in a way that cannot be done with conventional currency or credit cards, that's when I think more will start using it. Like the internet, it could take a decade for that to happen

gjgjg

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dafar on February 03, 2015, 09:36:56 PM

I agree with your post, and that there is plenty of upside despite the current state of fear.... but I'm more concerned it may take 5-10 years for the demand to catch up with the supply where the next rally may happen. A lot of people thing the 2016 block halving will cause a rally but I highly doubt it

why so? a lot can happen in 2015 to be able to call 2016 already, nevermind 5~10 years a head.
the longer the time frame the more confident i personally am about a higher price, but in the btc world a year is an epoch! so i think its totally possible to see a big rally before too long. like a physical fire it can take a while to catch and get burning but once it started it spreads quick:p

anyway, even if it does take 5~10, is that so bad? gives us time to accumulate even more!

Dafar

legendary

Activity: 1330

Merit: 1000

dafar consulting

I agree with your post, and that there is plenty of upside despite the current state of fear.... but I'm more concerned it may take 5-10 years for the demand to catch up with the supply where the next rally may happen. A lot of people thing the 2016 block halving will cause a rally but I highly doubt it

gjgjg

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

160~220 support holding well. couple of tests in last month caused 10~30% bounce, which is promising.
plenty of sellers lurking below significant trend resistance of 300~330 however. so looks like were stuck in this range for a while before getting a breakout.

not much fundamental reasons to think previous uptrend low of $50 will break.
mostly good fundis lately suggesting it will hold, therefore maintaining long term up trend channel. but lack of new territory fever adoption means new speedy rally unlikely any time soon (so resistance @ 300 might hold for ages..). with all the good fundis in the last few months and lack of rally suggests current markets are adopting slowly/saturated (and reinforcing point that new territories are slow to adopt).

homo homini lupus

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Quote from: nwfella on January 13, 2015, 12:41:11 AM

Quote from: altcoin hitler on January 12, 2015, 11:15:14 PM

Bitcoin has failed. Abandon ship!

Says the man with 56 posts!

you think your opinion is worth more because you spammed more?

Chef Ramsay

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Quote from: nwfella on January 13, 2015, 12:41:11 AM

Quote from: altcoin hitler on January 12, 2015, 11:15:14 PM

Bitcoin has failed. Abandon ship!

Says the man with 56 posts!

I can only imagine the commentary had this person been a noob during 2011 like, "cut your losses and your wrists!" Grin

nwfella

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Well hello there!

Quote from: altcoin hitler on January 12, 2015, 11:15:14 PM

Bitcoin has failed. Abandon ship!

Says the man with 56 posts!

altcoin hitler

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Bitcoin has failed. Abandon ship!

gjgjg

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Merit: 250

250 reached, interesting price point as it is the previous high on the current up-trend.

sadly no new territories on the radar to introduce new buying pressure. current market players still looking for the bottom. close inspection tech analysis puts bottom at~200. usd orderbooks clearly have buying pressure between 250 and 50. fundamentals still same (market reacted well to stamp hack) so not seeing certain reasoning for uptrend to break just yet (not looking so good on cny market orderbook though... lets see how market reacts to 250;).

gjgjg

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Quote from: grappa_barricata on August 20, 2014, 11:59:27 PM

Very nice point of view on the situation.

I believe the hordes of people working in foreign countries and sending money home on a monthly basis (aka: the 'remittance industry') will be so much better off using bitcoin: they are currently raped by a few businesses and there was no alternative before bitcoin. That will be the next 'gradual' push, in my opinion.

agreed, this is a kind of transient market that could be huge (maybe even the biggest single 'non-national' market) and Id imagine these people would be a big reason the 'home' markets adopt BTC.

gjgjg

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Quote from: AdamSmith on August 21, 2014, 12:06:42 AM

Nice post. You are neglecting one important factor, supply and demand.

The price you see today gives you the signal of how much the market is willing to pay for 1 bitcoin. The supply cost based on difficulty today is way higher than what the market willing to pay.

So, based on this factor, bitcoin is still rather bearish since the price is still way below production cost.

Even if the smaller miners stop producing coins due to increased costs v lower BTC prices, the supply to the market should stay steady anyway (I thought) because the difficulty level will adjust.
So the people that are left mining are still finding it profitable anyway, even with the lower prices, because they will always have an edge on the (lower) difficulty rate, and so be able to produce more coins to compensate the lower price, right?
By my understanding the supply will stay steady unless the price drops to 0 and stays there, or everyone stops mining or the cap is reached because the difficulty rate will always adjust to the amount of Hash power on the network.

I must admit Im not an expert on this side, thats just my understanding of it. Maybe I got it totally wrong and making an ass of myself here lol. Tongue

Im more focused on the market trading within itself, because supply was inherently steady (afaik)

AdamSmith

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Nice post. You are neglecting one important factor, supply and demand.

The price you see today gives you the signal of how much the market is willing to pay for 1 bitcoin. The supply cost based on difficulty today is way higher than what the market willing to pay.

So, based on this factor, bitcoin is still rather bearish since the price is still way below production cost.

Topic: A bullish opinion for people who panic when the price is dropping (Read 3795 times)