Topic: A Chinese look at the situation in China - page 4. (Read 14436 times)

Thanks for that objective summary! Part of my family is Chinese and I think you just nailed the whole point regarding their politics.

Thanks a lot for this perspective!

I've traveled through China for a month, but I feel like I don't understand its people any better after that trip than before 

Just wanted to say thank you for taking the time to write the post. It's very difficult for us in the west to understand the psyche of the average Chinese person, perhaps it's the same the other way around?

Underneath the btc phenomenon there is another social shift quietly happening, the ordinary people of the east and west are getting to know each other, and that can only be a good thing.

Well, that would be negative, wouldn't it.

If you were a major share-holder in a company, would you want a CEO that went about blurting out negative statements?

Interesting he doesn't mention anything about the government regulations(ban)

If this is how things are allowed to stand after the 31st Jan, then it changes everything.

Bobby Lee sounds pretty optimistic.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1up06f/fyi_update_email_from_btc_china_today/

Latest regulation simply means China will be left out of a billion dollar market. At least until the party changes their attitude. Perhaps they will once they realize they are hurting the Chinese national economy.

Bitcoin price and economy will continue to rise everywhere else if 'the party' likes it or not.

This might be generally true but it can never be absolutely true.

Even if 80% of Bitcoin holders in China intend to hold their coins post Jan 2014, there will still be 20% that need to cash out.

This would still trigger a significant sell-off event.

It (can't stopy buying) perhaps is not unwise. We will see. At the moment panic sell risks higher than panic buy. "Buy in panic, sell in peace" may still be a good strategy.

You are a very smart man but I mostly admire your patience in waiting for a dip. I tried to wait but I can't stop buying.

I am not so sure. I feel that in China the gloomy outlook has been built in the current price and those who would quit has done so. As I do scrapping, I always keep half of my hand in coins and half in cash, thus if it really go down I would still leverage the opportunity.

Nagle is correct. Living in China and never been to an English speaking country, I thought by saying loyalty everyone already knows what it means. This word Loyalty was turning into a negative word in China (meaning: defend position in a coterie by hurting everyone outside, think of Mafia for example) and I (mistakenly) took it that the rest of the world think so too. A lesson for me to watch for culture shock.


I will answer that in a separate post. It is a topic of its own, and a bit lengthy. But I may fail it, for I am no longer rich in my time.

He is speaking of loyalty to China's leadership. The leadership of China tolerates little internal dissent. They are also very careful to prevent anyone from forming a center of power that doesn't have to be loyal to the leadership. For example, the managers of the larger state owned companies are moved from one company to another every few years. This prevents them from acting like owners. And remember what happened to Bo Xilai.

Recommended reading: "How Asia Works".

In furtherance to the OP's description of the Chinese governments methodology of 'advising' of their intent and 'leaving' it up to groups and individuals to cooperate with their intentions, I read the following recent article, containing a rather telling quote from a Chinese Bitcoin speculator:

“We’re reading the tea leaves,” says Shanghai Bitcoin entrepreneur Jack Wang. “But it looks like they’re going to squeeze the exchanges until they’re not able to operate.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/01/06/china-bites-into-bitcoin/

China is still by far the biggest Bitcoin trading nation. Huobi and OKcoin who have implemented 'work-arounds' to the transaction bans have overtaken BTC38 who have decided to fully comply with the 'intent' of the Chinese government. If China does finally put its foot down in a way that allows no work-arounds such as vouchers or private bank transfers, then how anyone can delude themselves that Bitcoin won't suffer a brutal correction as a consequence, is beyond me. Of course, it is a big 'if' indeed and may never fully come to pass.

I have been bearish since the last crash rationalising my coldness on Bitcoin with this China thing still needing to be played out but events have proven that my attitude has forced me to miss out on almost 100% profits to date (I did actually have heavy buy-ins triggered at ~$540). I have traded the rise here and there, turning a small slice of profit as things have went, give or take the odd stint if idiotic profit raping panic selling. The thing that is knawing at me, is do I buy in now all the same in the hope that the whole China thing will somehow be gleaned over, and that Bitcoin can look forward to its otherwise admittedly bright looking future, or do I do the thing that common sense seems to be yelling at me and stay the fuck out until China is done and dusted.

The Chinese have previous in regulating a virtual currency that came to be traded on commodity markets alongside Gold, out of existence.

Interesting stuff, keep up informing us.

Thank you very much for taking the time to explain some fairly complex structures of Chinese market. This is an interesting view which helps me fill in a lot of details. I'm also interested in what kind of people are currently interested in Bitcoin, like T.Stuart was asking?

Hard to predict what will happen but I liked your explanation, OP. Your first prediction is similar to what some smart people posted here a month ago. Unfortunately the crowd was already screaming in panic and running towards the exit.

Thank you for the post.

One thing I find fascinating is the idea that the govt has the best interests of China as a whole in mind.  To an American like me, that seems too unbelievable to be true.  We are used to our govt using power to help themselves and their cronies at the expense of the people.  A libertarian like me believes everyone in govt is screwing the majority to help the few.  Democrats believe the Republicans are screwing the majority to help their few friends, and Democrats vice versa.  Either way, most Americans think they're being screwed.  It seems strange that people in the Chinese govt place loyalty above profit.

A question for you regarding the future.

What if Bitcoin takes off in the rest of the world?  What if it reaches a much higher price, i.e., $100,000, or similar, and achieves price stability, thereby making it a useful medium of exchange?  What if Bitcoin actual does what us dreamers desire:  a replacement for the dollar, euro, etc.?  

Will the Chinese govt still ban Bitcoin even if it looks like China will be "left behind"?