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Topic: A couple of questions about the dollar - page 2. (Read 1718 times)

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
March 13, 2014, 12:26:36 PM
#9
Just a couple of questions for the economists among you.

We have all been reading about Russia's veilled threat at dumping US debt - and it got me to thinking. What would be the effect on the US (over the medium term) of (say) Russia and China slowly getting rid of their US treasuries ? What would be the practical effect ? Presumably the cost of the bonds (to the purchaser) would go down whilst the cost to the US treasury would go up in interest payments. Is this how it works ?

And secondly, and kind of related to the above - the BRICS countries (or so it has been rumoured) are considering dumping the dollar as their reserve currency. China it seems are stocking up on gold. What is going on here ? And what would be the effect on the dollar/US economy if they did use a new reserve currency ? Dollar devaluation and (hyper) inflation ?

And last but not least - what would be the effect of all this on BTC (assuming of course BRICS were not to adopt BTC as the new reserve currency - and it seems pretty unlikely that they would, even if it would be perfect for the job) ??  Could a dollar collapse send US citizens straight into the arms of bitcoin perhaps ?

1. Dumping U.S. debt would either cause interest rates to go up or the value of the dollar to go down, depending on what the Fed does. If the Fed buys the dumped debt, then it will have to increase the money supply causing the value of the dollar to drop, otherwise interest rates will increase until the demand can match the new supply.

2. Dumping dollars will lower the dollar's value because of increased supply with lower demand.

3. A drop in the value of the dollar will increase the demand for other currencies, including Bitcoin. Their values will rise.

+1, well explained!

Plus, don't forget the mother of all money, which is gold...!
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
March 13, 2014, 12:25:50 PM
#8
Russia and China are strongly pushing against the Dollar, especially with an increasing amount of oil trading going on in Yuan, without USD roundtrips. If anything, the Dollar's user base is sliding.
To disperse some currency around the world, it is necessary to run trade deficits for years.

How did you get that idea?

The dollar is reserve currency mainly because if you want to buy oil, you have to pay in dollars, and everybody needs oil, so everybody is forced to buy dollars. Also, many countries are holding reserves in dollars. It has nothing to do with a trade deficit.

sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
March 13, 2014, 12:22:42 PM
#7
Yup, OP, you pretty much nailed it. All of your fears coming out in your questions - this seems to be about to become reality!

The US has overdone the abuse of the printing presses, China has started to dump treasuries and talks and actions about circumventing the dollar as a reserve currency are going on in many parts of the world.

The dollar as a reserve currency will be done soon, and this will not go over nicely...
legendary
Activity: 4438
Merit: 3387
March 13, 2014, 03:03:40 AM
#6
Just a couple of questions for the economists among you.

We have all been reading about Russia's veilled threat at dumping US debt - and it got me to thinking. What would be the effect on the US (over the medium term) of (say) Russia and China slowly getting rid of their US treasuries ? What would be the practical effect ? Presumably the cost of the bonds (to the purchaser) would go down whilst the cost to the US treasury would go up in interest payments. Is this how it works ?

And secondly, and kind of related to the above - the BRICS countries (or so it has been rumoured) are considering dumping the dollar as their reserve currency. China it seems are stocking up on gold. What is going on here ? And what would be the effect on the dollar/US economy if they did use a new reserve currency ? Dollar devaluation and (hyper) inflation ?

And last but not least - what would be the effect of all this on BTC (assuming of course BRICS were not to adopt BTC as the new reserve currency - and it seems pretty unlikely that they would, even if it would be perfect for the job) ??  Could a dollar collapse send US citizens straight into the arms of bitcoin perhaps ?

1. Dumping U.S. debt would either cause interest rates to go up or the value of the dollar to go down, depending on what the Fed does. If the Fed buys the dumped debt, then it will have to increase the money supply causing the value of the dollar to drop, otherwise interest rates will increase until the demand can match the new supply.

2. Dumping dollars will lower the dollar's value because of increased supply with lower demand.

3. A drop in the value of the dollar will increase the demand for other currencies, including Bitcoin. Their values will rise.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
March 12, 2014, 08:23:16 AM
#5
Russia and China are strongly pushing against the Dollar, especially with an increasing amount of oil trading going on in Yuan, without USD roundtrips. If anything, the Dollar's user base is sliding.
To disperse some currency around the world, it is necessary to run trade deficits for years.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 12, 2014, 08:12:37 AM
#4
As Chinas exports decline, the appeal of trading oil for RMB also declines.  The dollar and the yen remain the risk-off trade.  The yen will fail before the dollar fails.  Compared to the eventual failure of the dollar, the failure of the euro before it will be small potatos. When the dollar finally does go to zero, fiat will no longer be viable.
newbie
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
March 12, 2014, 07:50:05 AM
#3
Russia and China are strongly pushing against the Dollar, especially with an increasing amount of oil trading going on in Yuan, without USD roundtrips. If anything, the Dollar's user base is sliding.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
March 12, 2014, 05:51:09 AM
#2
Big questions.

There is no competition for the reserve currency, it is the dollar. There is no formalism, it is just accepted anywhere and distributed everywhere. The dollar is expanding in user base.
hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
March 09, 2014, 04:10:48 PM
#1
Just a couple of questions for the economists among you.

We have all been reading about Russia's veilled threat at dumping US debt - and it got me to thinking. What would be the effect on the US (over the medium term) of (say) Russia and China slowly getting rid of their US treasuries ? What would be the practical effect ? Presumably the cost of the bonds (to the purchaser) would go down whilst the cost to the US treasury would go up in interest payments. Is this how it works ?

And secondly, and kind of related to the above - the BRICS countries (or so it has been rumoured) are considering dumping the dollar as their reserve currency. China it seems are stocking up on gold. What is going on here ? And what would be the effect on the dollar/US economy if they did use a new reserve currency ? Dollar devaluation and (hyper) inflation ?

And last but not least - what would be the effect of all this on BTC (assuming of course BRICS were not to adopt BTC as the new reserve currency - and it seems pretty unlikely that they would, even if it would be perfect for the job) ??  Could a dollar collapse send US citizens straight into the arms of bitcoin perhaps ?
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