A Deep Dive Into Bitcoin's Scarcity | Bitcointalksearch.org

magneto

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I have been always telling my fellow bitcoin investor friends. Bitcoin is scarce!. And it is scarcer than we think.

Scarcity isn't just about the supply. It's also about the quantity demanded.

If adoption doesn't pick up, then bitcoin will not become more scarce, and none of these calculations that you have made would matter whatsoever. I also think that the assumption of everyone in the world holding equal amounts of BTC is not a valid one, as that would pretty much never happen.

But I understand where you are coming from in terms of your concept of "true scarcity", and I agree. Given the fact that fiat doesn't have a limited supply the way that bitcoin does with a capped supply, it can be difficult for people to see the advantages that bitcoin has regarding its function as a store of value compared to that of fiat currencies, though it is be apparent to many BTC adopters.

CryptInvest

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It seems to me that Bitcoin continues to be undervalued due to the fact that it is easy to fork. Altcoins bite off a piece of cake from the total value of Bitcoin. The availability of alternatives reduces the cost of a financial asset.

lisasteca

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Quote from: omone1 on April 21, 2019, 11:14:18 AM

Next year will be a great year for bitcoin, miners will start hoarding bitcoin because of the halving to 6.25BTC per block reward, and at this stage, I believe people won't be selling for cheap price, people have to be careful because greedy Ponzi schemes and HYIP will be on the rise once more. I think the big banks and some critics of the bitcoin are busy filling their bags while the suppose apostles of bitcoin are listening to FUD.

I am not sure about it , price of bitcoin it will be speculation matter when is good time to explode it will and someone will help the markek to make huge profit!

bettercrypto

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Yeah! I agree with you OP. Due to the scarcity of bitcoin, it might grow up. The price of it will increase because someday, people will gradually adop the changes when it comes i currencies. Hopefully, by that time I hold already 2 to 5 bitcoins in my wallet. So that,if ever it goes up, I have many dollars to be converted. I am imagining that bitcoin becomes 30k dollars and I am buying a lambo soon.

seoincorporation

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Quote from: fuathan on April 20, 2019, 09:47:35 AM

I have been always telling my fellow bitcoin investor friends. Bitcoin is scarce!. And it is scarcer than we think.

We mined 17.5 BTC up to the present. 1m BTCs is in Satoshi's account. 4m BTCs is lost.

Grasping this scarcity may help why BTC is still undervalued!

From the article below;

If you own just a single bitcoin, only 17 million other people will ever have as much as you.

We have never had true scarcity until now, and because of that, it's a concept that's hard to grasp.

Furthermore, and scaling up a little, let's assume bitcoin manages to hit critical mass, and everyone on the planet tries to grab a piece of the action. There would only be 0.003 BTC for each person…

Check the article below;
https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/8455/a-deep-dive-into-bitcoin-s-scarcity.html

Even Satoshi thinks about this, he says the lost bitcoins can be considered as a donation because less btc on circulation means they should have more value.

But this is a good bump signal, at least it has a reason to bump.

aplistir

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Nowadays scarcity is a relative concept.

If exchanges are using fractional banking, and I believe some of them are, then there is an unlimited amount of "paper bitcoins"

Fractional banking is an accepted and "legal" practice in banks, so why would they not be using it in exchanges too.

maianh09

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The amount of bitcoin circulating on the market falls, and the total bitcoin supply is about to reach its maximum level through mining. When the amount of Bitcoin reaches a maximum of 21 million through mining, everything will officially begin. When Bitcoin cannot exploit the market with high demand, it will make Bitcoin price rise and the number of people who want to own it increases. Buy Bitcoin now, or you won't be able to hold it in the future.

Alpha0One1

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Once Bitcoin hits mass adoption then we will see its true value.
Take note that Bitcoin is divisible into 1.00000000. Making 1 BTC into 100,000,000 satoshis.
IMO, max bitcoin that will be generated should not be viewed as 21 million btc as we might soon be dealing with satoshis only in the near future.

33bitcoin

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Quote from: fuathan on April 21, 2019, 07:52:36 PM

Quote from: okala on April 21, 2019, 05:20:59 PM

That is why bitcoin operate on the economic law of demands and supply, the more the demands for bitcoin rise the higher the price will go, bitcoin is a deflating commodity it can never be scarce but the price can increase to any amount as long as the demands for the currency keep rising.

Demand is the key. No question about it. However, bitcoin is designed to be 'scarce'. Halving, 10-min rule, steady increasing of difficulty etc. are the indicators of it.

The issue at hand is will bitcoin be too scare? Inflation will drop to near zero percent and mirns will have little incentive to keep on mining, I dont think transaction fees will be enough.

pawanjain

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Quote from: Shenzou on April 21, 2019, 02:36:52 PM

Well you know what that means, start holding your bitcoin, it is actually crazy i though that the supply was supposed to last us at least 100 years before all the bitcoin is mined, but with the supply running low this could lead to many thing not just people having less that 1btc in their wallets, but it will require a lot of machine power to mine what is left of it, meaning that transactions will take more fees and more time, which than may lead to micro transactions made through bitcoin impossible.

You should definitely read this post made by franky1 and if you already did then do it again. This clearly explains the fundamentals of mining difficulty and the units of bitcoin.

Quote from: franky1 on April 20, 2019, 12:07:11 PM

there are 2,100,000,000,000,000 sharable units currently
under the assumption of this. the bitcoin halving events would end new unit creation in ~2140

however some bitcoin devs want to split up the units of account by a further 1000x called millisats. meaning more units of account can be shared out

i know many people will say 'but there will still be only 21m btc because each btc is no longer
100,000,000 sats
but
100,000,000,000 millisats
also by having more dvisions, this would allow more 'coin creation (and thus more halving events) to occur meaning coin creation would continue for a dozen+ more years ()

fuathan

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Quote from: okala on April 21, 2019, 05:20:59 PM

That is why bitcoin operate on the economic law of demands and supply, the more the demands for bitcoin rise the higher the price will go, bitcoin is a deflating commodity it can never be scarce but the price can increase to any amount as long as the demands for the currency keep rising.

Demand is the key. No question about it. However, bitcoin is designed to be 'scarce'. Halving, 10-min rule, steady increasing of difficulty etc. are the indicators of it.

okala

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That is why bitcoin operate on the economic law of demands and supply, the more the demands for bitcoin rise the higher the price will go, bitcoin is a deflating commodity it can never be scarce but the price can increase to any amount as long as the demands for the currency keep rising.

fuathan

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Quote from: Nolimitz84 on April 21, 2019, 03:59:10 PM

Quote from: fuathan on April 20, 2019, 09:47:35 AM

I have been always telling my fellow bitcoin investor friends. Bitcoin is scarce!. And it is scarcer than we think.

We mined 17.5 BTC up to the present. 1m BTCs is in Satoshi's account. 4m BTCs is lost.

Grasping this scarcity may help why BTC is still undervalued!

From the article below;

If you own just a single bitcoin, only 17 million other people will ever have as much as you.

We have never had true scarcity until now, and because of that, it's a concept that's hard to grasp.

Furthermore, and scaling up a little, let's assume bitcoin manages to hit critical mass, and everyone on the planet tries to grab a piece of the action. There would only be 0.003 BTC for each person…

The calculation is too cold.According to Your statement, everyone should strive to purchase bitcoin in view of its growing deficit.But not everyone on the planet has gold and not everyone wants to buy it.But if you look from a pragmatic point of view, right today you can buy 1 Bitcoin and not worry about your old age Cool

According to the rich list of Bitcoin, there are lots of investors who have more than a BTC so the equation is close to accurate. An ordinary guy in this forum has more than a BTC for sure too.

fuathan

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Quote from: Ucy on April 21, 2019, 08:08:30 AM

How do you know how how much Bitcoin has been lost? There is no way of telling as far as I know. What may look like lost Bitcoin to you may be long term holders. Atleast we have seen the kind of long term holders move part of unmoved Bitcoin all of a sudden

By the way, the satoshi 1 million Bitcoin is just a speculation. No one is certain how much he really owns

OK. Satoshi has more than 1 million. But 1 million is certain.

gentlemand

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Quote from: naturerock on April 21, 2019, 04:05:47 PM

Im still not totally convinced that miners will be perfectly fine with living off transaction fees alone. They may move to another chain with higher rewards once the inflation drops below 1 percent.

That's going to be in 2032. By that point lord knows what the landscape will look like but if BTC is still up there the idea of another SHA256 coin consistently paying out more to miners will be laughable. They'll have been left in the dust years before.

Any chain can dole out more coins. Whether those coins are worth anything is another matter.

naturerock

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Im still not totally convinced that miners will be perfectly fine with living off transaction fees alone. They may move to another chain with higher rewards once the inflation drops below 1 percent. Being a deflationary currency is a gift and a curse.

Nolimitz84

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Quote from: fuathan on April 20, 2019, 09:47:35 AM

I have been always telling my fellow bitcoin investor friends. Bitcoin is scarce!. And it is scarcer than we think.

We mined 17.5 BTC up to the present. 1m BTCs is in Satoshi's account. 4m BTCs is lost.

Grasping this scarcity may help why BTC is still undervalued!

From the article below;

If you own just a single bitcoin, only 17 million other people will ever have as much as you.

We have never had true scarcity until now, and because of that, it's a concept that's hard to grasp.

Furthermore, and scaling up a little, let's assume bitcoin manages to hit critical mass, and everyone on the planet tries to grab a piece of the action. There would only be 0.003 BTC for each person…

The calculation is too cold.According to Your statement, everyone should strive to purchase bitcoin in view of its growing deficit.But not everyone on the planet has gold and not everyone wants to buy it.But if you look from a pragmatic point of view, right today you can buy 1 Bitcoin and not worry about your old age Cool

Shenzou

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Quote from: fuathan on April 20, 2019, 09:47:35 AM

I have been always telling my fellow bitcoin investor friends. Bitcoin is scarce!. And it is scarcer than we think.

We mined 17.5 BTC up to the present. 1m BTCs is in Satoshi's account. 4m BTCs is lost.

Grasping this scarcity may help why BTC is still undervalued!

From the article below;

If you own just a single bitcoin, only 17 million other people will ever have as much as you.

We have never had true scarcity until now, and because of that, it's a concept that's hard to grasp.

Furthermore, and scaling up a little, let's assume bitcoin manages to hit critical mass, and everyone on the planet tries to grab a piece of the action. There would only be 0.003 BTC for each person…

Check the article below;
https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/8455/a-deep-dive-into-bitcoin-s-scarcity.html

Well you know what that means, start holding your bitcoin, it is actually crazy i though that the supply was supposed to last us at least 100 years before all the bitcoin is mined, but with the supply running low this could lead to many thing not just people having less that 1btc in their wallets, but it will require a lot of machine power to mine what is left of it, meaning that transactions will take more fees and more time, which than may lead to micro transactions made through bitcoin impossible.

franky1

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Quote from: omone1 on April 21, 2019, 11:14:18 AM

Next year will be a great year for bitcoin, miners will start hoarding bitcoin because of the halving to 6.25BTC per block reward,

Quote from: bigmelons25 on April 21, 2019, 11:54:31 AM

It will be really interesting to see how fast the price will rise when the next block reward gets cut in half. Inflation rate will be lower than all fiat currencies and it will only continue to drop in the future, this will make bitcoin a better store of value than gold

dont get to set on thinking the halving will be a direct cause.

put it this way. imagine the hashrate was 50ex and the mining cost was ~$5k/btc
but imagine that the market rate was $12k(future time)($7k speculative margin/profit)
....
this continues for months until the halving event. and then when it happens it obviously makes mining costs move to $10k/btc
but because the market is already(at the time) $12k miners are still in profit. so you dont see any big change and wont see a big instant change to $24k.

what happened in 2012 was that the price didnt change much. it wasnt until ASICS launched and the mining costs rose in 2013 did the prices suddenly go crazy.

so if there is already alot of speculative margin(profit above cost) then dont expect the halving to cause much reaction

bigmelons25

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It will be really interesting to see how fast the price will rise when the next block reward gets cut in half. Inflation rate will be lower than all fiat currencies and it will only continue to drop in the future, this will make bitcoin a better store of value than gold

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