i wont repeat myself as this keeps being discussed at length across many topics. so ill paste my response
if i had $10million and wanted bitcoin. i cant simply throw it into a crappy exchange and buy coins(amlkyc flags and alerts will go mad). so i buy rigs and pay my electric with the $10mill. and keep the coins.
anyone selling bitcoins after mining are dumb, and definitely not bitcoin investors.. infact you should treat them as electric company investors as the end result is no bitcoins, no fiat. and only a piece of paper that says they paid a large amount of money to an electric company.
so if your one of these people cashing out over 50% of your hoard... slap yourself with a wet fish and change your mindset
for miners. out of the 3600 coins produced a day, estimates are that only 600 is cashed out to fiat. the rest is hoarded. and of that 600 cashed out very little of it is done on the public crappy exchanges.
example of 2 separate miners on different block rewards
https://blockchain.info/address/19vvtxUpbidB8MT5CsSYYTBEjMRnowSZj4
~6000 coins earned from mining
~5000 coins NOT SPENT
https://blockchain.info/address/1GcF7j3YH8Qs8hvNEe7zbrQZftMU6sRLfu
~5000 coins earned from mining
~3500 coins not spent
anyome mining this month with the mindset to sell out to pay this months fiat lifestyle, will lose out.. and to be honest, thy dont understand bitcoin, thus im half glad that they will give up. as for the smart ones. they will continue
How can you be so sure? Just few common indicators might not give you the whole picture. Let's analyze the hash rate.
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
while things are moving up, price is heading the other direction. I believe most people are underestimating actual price of btc mining in certain asian countries. Mining is just like any other business venture, only those who know how to lower the production cost have the advantages. That means those who cannot compete will get squeezed out making those that remain surviving will be getting larger share of the pie due to less people mining. Perhaps should work on the actual mining cost to find out. Don't take the mining rig price seen in ebay because that might be jacked out several times for profit. Instead take actual rig cost at the production. I'm not going to count.
Oh yeah. On the hoarding... if i were the miner. I would sell all that stash, part of it to cover back operating cost and the rest to buy Alibaba shares at least that's higher chance to up the price with yearly potential return compared to bitcoin which pays zero interest