A good day to buy hard? | Bitcointalksearch.org

deisik

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Quote from: BillyBobZorton on September 23, 2015, 06:51:54 PM

Quote from: Snorek on September 23, 2015, 03:12:10 AM

It is not just a slight bitcoin price drop. As far as we can see current price is constant and there are no promises of any change.
For me it's clear that without really huge positive news (afaik there won't be any soon) bitcoin price will remain stagnant until 2016.

It's obviously going to stay where it is until the halving. It's the most sane reason to believe. Of course, no amount of technical analysis can ever tell you what will happen. I mean look at what happened with Volkswagen. They had prospects to become the #1 manufacturer of cars in the world and their stocks crashed in a day after the fraud incident. Any news can make the price crash or go moon in a day.

I don't think that this fraud incident will significantly (if ever) affect their position in the car manufacturers' pecking order...

A good day to buy Volkswagen shares (with Bitcoin)

MinerHQ

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Don't think any day is good for buying at one time instead accumulate your coins slowly bit by bit to get best price because no one know which day is best for investments

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: Snorek on September 23, 2015, 03:12:10 AM

It is not just a slight bitcoin price drop. As far as we can see current price is constant and there are no promises of any change.
For me it's clear that without really huge positive news (afaik there won't be any soon) bitcoin price will remain stagnant until 2016.

It's obviously going to stay where it is until the halving. It's the most sane reason to believe. Of course, no amount of technical analysis can ever tell you what will happen. I mean look at what happened with Volkswagen. They had prospects to become the #1 manufacturer of cars in the world and their stocks crashed in a day after the fraud incident. Any news can make the price crash or go moon in a day.

OROBTC

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Quote from: deisik on September 23, 2015, 12:45:11 AM

Quote from: OROBTC on September 22, 2015, 09:48:02 PM

But the mere exercise itself trying to assess probabilities, however subjective and imperfect, is instructive. If only to force you to look at various possibilities, differing conditions and perspective.

Of course I do not claim that trying to enumerate outcomes via probability achieves any better than random guessing... Looking at "probability" is just one analytical tool in the box. It is a useful one for me though.

Perspectives are often what I seek in assessing investments and much else.

I was expecting you to say something to that tune, and have already thought out my reply, wtf

Nope again, it doesn't and couldn't possibly work the way you look at it. How come? Because this mode of thinking is toxic per se. Humans are prone to what gives them false hope and provides fake confidence. If you are going to trade and trade successfully (otherwise I see no reason to engage in this activity), you'd better drop this idea altogether as fiercely detrimental...

I do not trade. I only buy Au and Pt as income arrives (I have paused buying Bitcoin, and may not buy any more -- my purchases of BTC were more of "if available, buy!" nature, due to it being hard for me to FIND Bitcoin suppliers). Yet, I do look at everything I can to help me decide which of the metals to buy (for example, the Au:Pt ratio is now about 1.22 now, platinum is WAY undervalued vs. gold by historical standards).

The above observation is not about probabilities, but is an example of the way I look at investments. I like Pt as an investment now, but gold also seems undervalued vs. paper...

Again, I do not trade. I DO value trading comments (and charts, etc.), as further variables to go into my hopper for churning in my brain.

My PMs will go to my kid and/or grandchildren (if/when the latter come...). With luck, our family's gold will never be sold.

Bottom Line: Peace to you. Differing reasons to invest in gold or BTC are all OK as long as prudence is practiced.

Snorek

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It is not just a slight bitcoin price drop. As far as we can see current price is constant and there are no promises of any change.
For me it's clear that without really huge positive news (afaik there won't be any soon) bitcoin price will remain stagnant until 2016.

MasterYii

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Quote from: deisik on August 24, 2015, 03:21:58 PM

Now that the price slowly but surely approaches $200 mark, many peeps are getting ready to open their purses and shell out big time. Okay, but I have a feeling that the price will crash to 150-160$ just after it touches that number...

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered... Are you really a buy-hard?

All I know is that the market is full of uncertainty and all that stuffs, prices may rise and fall and it is a good time to buy when the price is low.

deisik

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Quote from: OROBTC on September 22, 2015, 09:48:02 PM

But the mere exercise itself trying to assess probabilities, however subjective and imperfect, is instructive. If only to force you to look at various possibilities, differing conditions and perspective.

Of course I do not claim that trying to enumerate outcomes via probability achieves any better than random guessing... Looking at "probability" is just one analytical tool in the box. It is a useful one for me though.

Perspectives are often what I seek in assessing investments and much else.

I was expecting you to say something to that tune, and have already thought out my reply, wtf

Nope again, it doesn't and couldn't possibly work the way you look at it. How come? Because this mode of thinking is toxic per se. Humans are prone to what gives them false hope and provides fake confidence. If you are going to trade and trade successfully (otherwise I see no reason to engage in this activity), you'd better drop this idea altogether as fiercely detrimental...

Miss Fortune

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Quote from: deisik on August 24, 2015, 03:21:58 PM

Now that the price slowly but surely approaches $200 mark, many peeps are getting ready to open their purses and shell out big time. Okay, but I have a feeling that the price will crash to 150-160$ just after it touches that number...

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered... Are you really a buy-hard?

I dont think there is really a certain good day for that I think you should be investigations first before buying.
One advice from me. I hope it helps you.

OROBTC

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...

deisik

But the mere exercise itself trying to assess probabilities, however subjective and imperfect, is instructive. If only to force you to look at various possibilities, differing conditions and perspective.

Of course I do not claim that trying to enumerate outcomes via probability achieves any better than random guessing... Looking at "probability" is just one analytical tool in the box. It is a useful one for me though.

Perspectives are often what I seek in assessing investments and much else.

deisik

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Quote from: OROBTC on September 22, 2015, 01:12:49 PM

My opinion is that you can get a rough idea of probabilities (not what will happen, but probabilities) based on past price behavior. Same with almost any other prices.

Probabilities like that can be calculated based on data.

I had been of the same idea just a few years ago. No, it doesn't work. And what is even more troublesome and damaging (besides just not working) is the feeling of false confidence that may and will cost you dear in the long run...

I learned it the hard way

OROBTC

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Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 03:32:27 PM

Quote from: d5000 on September 20, 2015, 03:10:09 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 06:46:39 AM

Now you are obviously trying to backpedal this issue. You say that the longer the price stays at $230, the less chance it has to drop below $200. What is it if not predicting an unpredictable thing? Generally, it is irrelevant (how long it stays there), but in reality it works quite the other way round (as I said)...

I agree with the statement. We categorize objects and prices all the time. If Bitcoin stays on a price level, then we get used to this level. Obviously, the probability that a guess like this is true is low in a highly volatile market like Bitcoin's, but it grows while stability is growing.

Perhaps we do have now a probability of 10% to "not falling below 200" this year. In one month more Bitcoin staying at this price level it could increase to 12 or 13 %. (It's only a raw example, not a calculation I actually made).

You cannot calculate such probabilities (or otherwise measure them). And I'm not talking about any definite number like 10% or any other number for that matter. I mean any such methodology would be pretty much useless. Why? Because for such calculations to make any sense you should know the probability distribution, that is, a probability of each possible Bitcoin price, which you don't and can't know...

Unless you have a time machine indeed

My opinion is that you can get a rough idea of probabilities (not what will happen, but probabilities) based on past price behavior. Same with almost any other prices.

Probabilities like that can be calculated based on data.

But, Black Swans and other unpredictables will always confound that. Nonetheless, IMO it is worthwhile taking a look at past price behavior as ONE VARIABLE in making decisions to buy/sell BTC (and even gold).

miketouchteam

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Quote from: oblivi on September 20, 2015, 06:43:45 PM

Quote from: NorrisK on September 20, 2015, 03:36:32 PM

Quote from: Franciem on September 19, 2015, 09:04:20 PM

Quote from: BlackSpidy on September 19, 2015, 02:29:52 PM

A great great day to buy hard indeed. I am seriously considering buying with all my available money right now. We're flat, I dont think the price is dipping below $200 again, ever. We may be leaving behind $300 and maybe $400 forever within the next 8 months. I am very optimistic of the route we're taking in the not-so-distant future.

yea we can see a big buy wall at 220$ https://i.imgur.com/yD6CHyj.png
Im hold my bitcoin too

I wouldn't place my trust in a big buy wall... The one purpose of a huge buy wall is a great opportunity to get dumped on hard. Sells will be absorbed easily.

There are tons of fake walls being put on both sell and buy orders. If you go on bitcoinwisdom or specially in Poloniex you can see how there are walls being created and then being taken off suddendly trying to trap other people's orders on there. Poloniex also has an annoying bot that automatically creates orders of +1 satoshi increments. Is there any logical explanation for this?

Maybe the bot is trying to get it's orders filled first?

oblivi

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Quote from: NorrisK on September 20, 2015, 03:36:32 PM

Quote from: Franciem on September 19, 2015, 09:04:20 PM

Quote from: BlackSpidy on September 19, 2015, 02:29:52 PM

A great great day to buy hard indeed. I am seriously considering buying with all my available money right now. We're flat, I dont think the price is dipping below $200 again, ever. We may be leaving behind $300 and maybe $400 forever within the next 8 months. I am very optimistic of the route we're taking in the not-so-distant future.

yea we can see a big buy wall at 220$

Im hold my bitcoin too

I wouldn't place my trust in a big buy wall... The one purpose of a huge buy wall is a great opportunity to get dumped on hard. Sells will be absorbed easily.

There are tons of fake walls being put on both sell and buy orders. If you go on bitcoinwisdom or specially in Poloniex you can see how there are walls being created and then being taken off suddendly trying to trap other people's orders on there. Poloniex also has an annoying bot that automatically creates orders of +1 satoshi increments. Is there any logical explanation for this?

tommorisonwebdesign

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The price of bitcoin is low so yes now is a good time to buy if you have the money to invest. I think bitcoin has a lot of potential as a technology and I don't think the price will dip below $200 again. Bitcoin is still in development and anyone who is using it now in my opinion is investing in their future.

NorrisK

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Quote from: Franciem on September 19, 2015, 09:04:20 PM

Quote from: BlackSpidy on September 19, 2015, 02:29:52 PM

A great great day to buy hard indeed. I am seriously considering buying with all my available money right now. We're flat, I dont think the price is dipping below $200 again, ever. We may be leaving behind $300 and maybe $400 forever within the next 8 months. I am very optimistic of the route we're taking in the not-so-distant future.

yea we can see a big buy wall at 220$

Im hold my bitcoin too

I wouldn't place my trust in a big buy wall... The one purpose of a huge buy wall is a great opportunity to get dumped on hard. Sells will be absorbed easily.

deisik

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Quote from: d5000 on September 20, 2015, 03:10:09 PM

Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 06:46:39 AM

Now you are obviously trying to backpedal this issue. You say that the longer the price stays at $230, the less chance it has to drop below $200. What is it if not predicting an unpredictable thing? Generally, it is irrelevant (how long it stays there), but in reality it works quite the other way round (as I said)...

I agree with the statement. We categorize objects and prices all the time. If Bitcoin stays on a price level, then we get used to this level. Obviously, the probability that a guess like this is true is low in a highly volatile market like Bitcoin's, but it grows while stability is growing.

Perhaps we do have now a probability of 10% to "not falling below 200" this year. In one month more Bitcoin staying at this price level it could increase to 12 or 13 %. (It's only a raw example, not a calculation I actually made).

You cannot calculate such probabilities (or otherwise measure them). And I'm not talking about any definite number like 10% or any other number for that matter. I mean any such methodology would be pretty much useless. Why? Because for such calculations to make any sense you should know the probability distribution, that is, a probability of each possible Bitcoin price, which you don't and can't know...

Unless you have a time machine indeed

d5000

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Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 06:46:39 AM

Now you are obviously trying to backpedal this issue. You say that the longer the price stays at $230, the less chance it has to drop below $200. What is it if not predicting an unpredictable thing? Generally, it is irrelevant (how long it stays there), but in reality it works quite the other way round (as I said)...

I agree with the statement. We categorize objects and prices all the time. If Bitcoin stays on a price level, then we get used to this level. Obviously, the probability that a guess like this is true is low in a highly volatile market like Bitcoin's, but it grows while stability is growing.

Perhaps we do have now a probability of 10% to "not falling below 200" this year. In one month more Bitcoin staying at this price level it could increase to 12 or 13 %. (It's only a raw example, not a calculation I actually made).

deisik

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Quote from: Amph on September 20, 2015, 01:45:46 PM

lol man opinion can't be wrong, they are you know... opinion on something that can't be known, wtf you're talking about? i think you're trolling and we are utterly off-topic, i stop here

Opinion - a belief, judgment, or way of thinking about something : what someone thinks about a particular thing...

Now tell me another

Amph

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Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 11:59:44 AM

Quote from: Amph on September 20, 2015, 11:45:48 AM

Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 10:09:16 AM

Quote from: Amph on September 20, 2015, 09:57:41 AM

Quote from: deisik on September 20, 2015, 06:46:39 AM

Now you are obviously trying to backpedal this issue. You say that the longer the price stays at $230, the less chance it has to drop below $200. What is it if not predicting an unpredictable thing? Generally, it is irrelevant (how long it stays there), but in reality it works quite the other way round (as I said)...

man you're not understanding, it's not repeating anything it's only a guess like i said above, it's not like because i don't know a thing i can't have an opinion on it

if you simply want to say "i don't know" fair enough, but from my point of view i want to guess about the possible direction and i believe will not go down because of the reason i said above, all this semantic no sense it's useless

As I said, there are no grounds for assuming that if the price stays long enough at one level, it won't go down. This is what you said and meant. I don't care about your delusions and biases (in fact, I profit by them), but only as long as you don't voice them (pretending to be true) since it is a dangerous one...

i'm not voicing anything, again, it's a simple opinion, all my quote are opinion when i'm guessing, after all it's all guessing can't be a fact you know, if you see it as a fact it's your problem only....

Your opinion is wrong, if you want me to put it this way, and can lead to potentially devastating financial losses if taken as genuine and authentic. If you yourself believe it to be true (that's to be expected), then it is a delusion (or bias), by any definition...

When expressing a personal opinion, people usually avoid saying "you can stay sure". That's why I won't let it go

lol man opinion can't be wrong, they are you know... opinion on something that can't be known, wtf you're talking about? i think you're trolling and we are utterly off-topic, i stop here

deisik

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Quote from: Amph on September 20, 2015, 11:45:48 AM

i believe you're misunderstand on purpose just to post more but anyway, i don't care...

As the author of this topic I feel responsibility on my part to keep it free from bullshit

Topic: A good day to buy hard? (Read 7209 times)