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Topic: A huge storm is coming - page 2. (Read 6615 times)

legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
January 31, 2015, 10:55:36 PM
#41
...

Greece is back in the news re a economic huge storm.  The new Syriza (leftist) government apparently will not knuckle under to the "Troika" (the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF) re Greece borrowing more in exchange for more austerity there in Greece.  Syriza looks like they want to default or at least get BIG concessions from Germany.  Greece has a debt:GDP of about 175% IIRC.

There is a deadline, FWIW, of February 28 for Greece to agree.

Greece has suffered horribly the past few years, it currently has an unemployment of some 25%, YOUTH unemployment of 50%.  There seems to be a lot of blame to go around:

-- greedy banksters (including Goldman-Sachs helping a prior Greek government to cook its books)
-- general corruption in Greece
-- unwillingness of Germany (and a few others) to absorb the debts of Greece
-- the European Central Bank (led by ex-Goldman employee Mario Draghi)

Etc.

Why does Greece matter?  Its economy is small.  But a "Grexit" (Greek Exit) might be contagious.  Spain has a new & increasingly popular leftist party ("Podemos" = "We Can") that wants to default too, they just had a huge rally in Madrid, apparently in support of Greece.  Spain is TBTF, a failure there would destroy many banks in Europe.

zerohedge.com has been closely following events in Greece and Europe.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 254
January 31, 2015, 10:43:07 PM
#40
If the house price crash, normal working people will lose their job, because the total consumption of the whole society will shrink dramatically when many people are underwater and have to pay much more to bank to have their house. Then many companies' sale will plummet and a mass scale of firing workers will follow

And this is a good thing (TM).
It would be good, long term, because these jobs were create by malinvestments (capital wrongly allocated to not really profitable business).

If too much homes were built, the sane thing to do is stop building new homes where no one is requested or needed.

The people and the capital freed by the bust will be reallocated, given time, to more productive use. Hopefully, a use able to give back a profit without external manipulations.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
World Class Cryptonaire
January 31, 2015, 06:47:02 PM
#39
QE 4, 5, 6, 7 will arrive in some months/years.

My personal opinion is that the USD will never see the end of a QE 5.
sr. member
Activity: 1512
Merit: 326
January 31, 2015, 06:39:49 PM
#38
i think new storm already coming back now Cheesy
newbie
Activity: 68
Merit: 0
January 31, 2015, 06:13:12 PM
#37
Time for the fed to implement qe4 stealth mode :-)
hero member
Activity: 521
Merit: 500
January 31, 2015, 01:43:10 PM
#36
BTC is nowhere near in the situation to provide that volume. The orders of magnitude in difference in liquidity is too much to even think about it.
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
January 31, 2015, 12:05:46 PM
#35
This weeks dramatic volatility in stock market and a soaring bond/gold price indicated that this storm is getting close

It is clear that without stimulus the economy will fall back to recession right away,  and with stimulus, the effect of each stimulus is getting weaker and weaker, since humans are all adaptive

Maybe this is the official end of Keynesian economics





excatly! That's why we need Bitcoin and cryptos to free regular people from dept slavery in current fiat system. by buying btc now
we can get ready for what's coming: The end of the fiat system Cool

1957 launched 100$ bill has lost 87% of it's value by 2005. and that was before currency wars and QE printing started!
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1014
In Satoshi I Trust
January 31, 2015, 11:42:40 AM
#34
QE 4, 5, 6, 7 will arrive in some months/years.
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Knowledge could but approximate existence.
January 31, 2015, 01:09:16 AM
#33
Quote from: Sheila Rabin, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy link=http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/copernicus/#2.1
Not all Greek astronomical ideas followed this geocentric system. Pythagoreans suggested that the earth moved around a central fire (not the sun). Archimedes wrote that Aristarchus of Samos actually proposed that the earth rotated daily and revolved around the sun.[3]
(Red colorization mine.)
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
January 31, 2015, 12:58:04 AM
#32
This weeks dramatic volatility in stock market and a soaring bond/gold price indicated that this storm is getting close

It is clear that without stimulus the economy will fall back to recession right away,  and with stimulus, the effect of each stimulus is getting weaker and weaker, since humans are all adaptive

Maybe this is the official end of Keynesian economics



legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
January 16, 2015, 02:32:28 AM
#31
Its almost like the economy forgot that it can't operate without huge amounts of stimulus
Yah their is going to be some strong pullback because of QE3 it affects the oil prices as well
Question is if there are enough counterbalancing effects to negate the brunt of the damage.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
January 16, 2015, 01:48:12 AM
#30
No illusions here. Facts are we went off the gold standard in '71 nobody is preventing anyone from using/obtaining gold but I would say the dollar is more stable it is why we we say x amount of gold is worth 1xxxUSD and not 1000au.

Dollar is over-produced together with those over-produced goods and services so that you feel the dollar price of everything is stable

By the way, dollar has fallen 15% against swiss franc and 20% against bitcoin today, all the valuation is relative
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1865
January 15, 2015, 09:34:29 PM
#29
...

While I am pleased to be a participant in the whole Bitcoin experiment (and have a decent chunk), I would be very hesitant to dismiss gold, which has a 5000 year + history as the world's premier store of value.

Bitcoin's future history is quite unproven.  Gold will do just fine for many years to come.

Buy and hold both!
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
January 15, 2015, 08:19:57 PM
#28
USD is the most stable currency in the world. Don't think that will change soon.

There is no such thing as stable currency, value is all relative, a scientific unit of value only exists in people's imagination. People tends to believe that their domestic currency is the unit of value, but not any foreign currency. So for a Japanese people, USD is not stable at all since it rose a lot against Japanese Yen recent years. Similarly, it rise against Rubble and petroleum by 50% in one year, while it fell against bitcoin by 1000% in two years


I don't follow. I say USD is stable because it is the closest thing to a universal currency. We don't have a gold standard anymore. Everything is calculated in terms of dollar amounts because it is the most stable.

Gold is the closest thing to a universal currency for thousands of years. Dollar has fallen against gold and lost 96% of its value since 1971, its value is an illusion, since it is created out of nothing. you can have an illusion for as long as you believe it, and there are many people who believe in its value because they simply don't understand how money works. Banks have created so many illusions to hide the truth and average Joe has no way to get it


Things evolve. Deal with it
newbie
Activity: 8
Merit: 0
January 15, 2015, 06:43:12 PM
#27
No illusions here. Facts are we went off the gold standard in '71 nobody is preventing anyone from using/obtaining gold but I would say the dollar is more stable it is why we we say x amount of gold is worth 1xxxUSD and not 1000au.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
January 15, 2015, 06:18:28 PM
#26
USD is the most stable currency in the world. Don't think that will change soon.

There is no such thing as stable currency, value is all relative, a scientific unit of value only exists in people's imagination. People tends to believe that their domestic currency is the unit of value, but not any foreign currency. So for a Japanese people, USD is not stable at all since it rose a lot against Japanese Yen recent years. Similarly, it rise against Rubble and petroleum by 50% in one year, while it fell against bitcoin by 1000% in two years


I don't follow. I say USD is stable because it is the closest thing to a universal currency. We don't have a gold standard anymore. Everything is calculated in terms of dollar amounts because it is the most stable.

Gold is the closest thing to a universal currency for thousands of years. Dollar has fallen against gold and lost 96% of its value since 1971, its value is an illusion, since it is created out of nothing. you can have an illusion for as long as you believe it, and there are many people who believe in its value because they simply don't understand how money works. Banks have created so many illusions to hide the truth and average Joe has no way to get it
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Knowledge could but approximate existence.
January 15, 2015, 05:38:06 PM
#25
Quote from: Sheila Rabin, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy link=http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/copernicus/#2.1
But observers realized that the heavenly bodies did not move as Aristotle postulated. The earth was not the true center of the orbits and the motion was not uniform. The most obvious problem was that the outer planets seemed to stop, move backwards in ‘retrograde’ motion for a while, and then continue forwards. By the second century, when Ptolemy compiled his Almagest (this common name of Ptolemy's Syntaxis was derived from its Arabic title), astronomers had developed the concept that the orbit moves in ‘epicycles’ around a ‘deferrent,’ that is, they move like a flat heliacal coil around a circle around the earth. The earth was also off-center, on an ‘eccentric,’ as the heavenly bodies moved around a central point. Ptolemy added a point on a straight line opposite the eccentric, which is called the ‘equalizing point’ or the ‘equant,’ and around this point the heavenly bodies moved uniformly. Moreover, unlike the Aristotelian model, Ptolemy's Almagest did not describe a unified universe. The ancient astronomers who followed Ptolemy, however, were not concerned if his system did not describe the ‘true’ motions of the heavenly bodies; their concern was to ‘save the phenomena,’ that is, give a close approximation of where the heavenly bodies would be at a given point in time. And in an age without professional astronomers, let alone the telescope, Ptolemy did a good job plotting the courses of the heavenly bodies.
(Red colorization mine.)
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1009
January 15, 2015, 05:35:34 PM
#24
The dollar is currently leveraged 77 to 1 by the FED.  This means the FED has 1/77th of the capital to support the existing supply of dollars.  This is up from 22 to 1 before 2008.  

The appearance of stability is not the same as actual stability.
newbie
Activity: 8
Merit: 0
January 15, 2015, 05:21:34 PM
#23
USD is the most stable currency in the world. Don't think that will change soon.

There is no such thing as stable currency, value is all relative, a scientific unit of value only exists in people's imagination. People tends to believe that their domestic currency is the unit of value, but not any foreign currency. So for a Japanese people, USD is not stable at all since it rose a lot against Japanese Yen recent years. Similarly, it rise against Rubble and petroleum by 50% in one year, while it fell against bitcoin by 1000% in two years


I don't follow. I say USD is stable because it is the closest thing to a universal currency. We don't have a gold standard anymore. Everything is calculated in terms of dollar amounts because it is the most stable.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
January 14, 2015, 08:21:48 PM
#22
USD is the most stable currency in the world. Don't think that will change soon.

There is no such thing as stable currency, value is all relative, a scientific unit of value only exists in people's imagination. People tends to believe that their domestic currency is the unit of value, but not any foreign currency. So for a Japanese people, USD is not stable at all since it rose a lot against Japanese Yen recent years. Similarly, it rise against Rubble and petroleum by 50% in one year, while it fell against bitcoin by 1000% in two years
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