A Little Example How Matingale Doesn't Work Even In Sportsbetting and Trading - page 2.

Betwrong

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Quote from: adaseb on September 29, 2018, 06:53:22 PM

The reason why Martingale is heavily used in dice is because most people (myself included) don't think its possible to hit 15+ losses in a row. We basically do the rough probability in our heads and realise that, its most likely not going to happen anytime soon.

Basically what are the chances of getting 5 losses in a row? 1 in 32
Seems like its pretty common

What are the chances of getting 10 losses in a row? 1 in 1024
Seems like its a rare chance.

What about 15 losses in a row? 1 in 32,768?
Seems like impossible to hit.

So basically we think that, "I will only do 100 rolls or less, its not practical for me to lose 15 times in a row" and basically the method works until it doesn't.

I didn't take into account house edge but it would only slightly skew the results, the general probability is still accurate.

Yes, it's accurate and I agree that the 1% house edge can be neglected in such calculations. Contrary to popular belief, house edge doesn't play that big of a part, especially if it's only 1%. For example with wagered amount of 1.5 BTC on one dice site my negative profit should be -0.015 BTC because of their HE. But in fact it is over than -0.05 BTC, mostly because of my unfortunate use of martingale.

Quote from: adaseb on September 29, 2018, 06:53:22 PM

What about 15 losses in a row? 1 in 32,768?
Seems like impossible to hit.

So basically we think that, "I will only do 100 rolls or less, its not practical for me to lose 15 times in a row" and basically the method works until it doesn't.

Indeed it is unlikely to hit 15 reds in row playing with 49.5% win chance within 100 rolls. However, with the help of dice bots people are making dozens of thousands rolls within one day. And then they are surprised at losing the entire bankroll! It should come as no shock actually.

LFC_Bitcoin

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None of these so called strategies are ever sure fire ways to win time after time. I’ve never seen a broke bookie or casino & that’s for a reason. So many people think they can beat the system & sure it might work for a period but long term gambling is, well, gambling.

Enjoy your times of winning but don’t be stupid & only gamble with what you can afford to lose. No strategy will keep you in the green forever.

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Quote from: SyGambler on September 29, 2018, 01:51:30 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on September 29, 2018, 12:33:05 PM

Well done on this demonstration, Sy! Sorry didn't see it earlier but this is just one of many prime examples of how you could very easily and very quickly bust on martingale with sportsbetting.

The best tipsters never martingale, they may increase units bets occasionally when they see really good odds on an outcome they're confident in but it's consistency that good tipsters seek, not the eventuality of picking the right favourite.

Doing martingale on sports also tempts you to look for odds rather than go for the matches you know well... And that's leaving it to luck, which really isn't how a tipster works.

For me, sportsbetting relies on a small selection of sports or games and predicting the form of a player or team over the long term.

yeah mate , actually some of the tipsters I follow use a scale between 1 to 10 for the games they choose so followers can know how much to bet and not keep betting the same amount over and over again
obviously when a tipster sees more value he should ask followers to bet more , but thats not martingale as he won't do that to chase the previous loss

Yeah, I find that most tipsters don't reveal the units or scales for betting, which for me isn't really helpful because a winning percentage simply isn't enough, especially when you've got no way to find out what the odds were or the unit of bets were. Digging deeper you find some tipsters have a higher percentage of wins on very low payouts - which of course just means they pick the bookie favourite more often.

Good luck on finding your value and +EV. I'm also always on the lookout. I know over the long run I don't particularly do well, but I do tend to make good small profits by taking enhanced odds or backing a single player/team when I feel they're on fire.

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Quote from: crwth on September 27, 2018, 06:01:09 AM

I think it's a double-edged sword where you or the casino, in this case, the bookmaker, is at risk, of losing or winning. If you managed to try it, it's not always bad but having every bet losing? It's a low chance event, but it could happen still. As you said, it's a lesson that everyone should understand and not just try immediately. If someone is planning to do it, try doing a calculated martingale or somewhat modified to your liking, not only directly multiplying by two.

The thing is that at the end long streaks of losses are bound to take you out eventually anyway as you keep trying to chase winning and then losing more just to recover the first. At the end you are more like doubling your chances of losing more every time you use the martingale strategy or any strategy at all when it comes to gambling.

I like the fact that the OP also made mention of trading which I believe most people who trade today simply does not even have any strategy to trade at all, and with that they are just gambling, and if the strategy anyone would ever come with when it comes to trading is martingale strategy, they are just going to get ruined eventually, most especially if it is even marginal trading.

adaseb

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The reason why Martingale is heavily used in dice is because most people (myself included) don't think its possible to hit 15+ losses in a row. We basically do the rough probability in our heads and realise that, its most likely not going to happen anytime soon.

Basically what are the chances of getting 5 losses in a row? 1 in 32
Seems like its pretty common

What are the chances of getting 10 losses in a row? 1 in 1024
Seems like its a rare chance.

What about 15 losses in a row? 1 in 32,768?
Seems like impossible to hit.

So basically we think that, "I will only do 100 rolls or less, its not practical for me to lose 15 times in a row" and basically the method works until it doesn't.

I didn't take into account house edge but it would only slightly skew the results, the general probability is still accurate.

SyGambler

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 29, 2018, 12:33:05 PM

Well done on this demonstration, Sy! Sorry didn't see it earlier but this is just one of many prime examples of how you could very easily and very quickly bust on martingale with sportsbetting.

The best tipsters never martingale, they may increase units bets occasionally when they see really good odds on an outcome they're confident in but it's consistency that good tipsters seek, not the eventuality of picking the right favourite.

Doing martingale on sports also tempts you to look for odds rather than go for the matches you know well... And that's leaving it to luck, which really isn't how a tipster works.

For me, sportsbetting relies on a small selection of sports or games and predicting the form of a player or team over the long term.

yeah mate , actually some of the tipsters I follow use a scale between 1 to 10 for the games they choose so followers can know how much to bet and not keep betting the same amount over and over again
obviously when a tipster sees more value he should ask followers to bet more , but thats not martingale as he won't do that to chase the previous loss

buwaytress

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Well done on this demonstration, Sy! Sorry didn't see it earlier but this is just one of many prime examples of how you could very easily and very quickly bust on martingale with sportsbetting.

The best tipsters never martingale, they may increase units bets occasionally when they see really good odds on an outcome they're confident in but it's consistency that good tipsters seek, not the eventuality of picking the right favourite.

Doing martingale on sports also tempts you to look for odds rather than go for the matches you know well... And that's leaving it to luck, which really isn't how a tipster works.

For me, sportsbetting relies on a small selection of sports or games and predicting the form of a player or team over the long term.

Betwrong

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Quote from: kurian on September 27, 2018, 10:07:58 AM

~
When doing martingale we often forgets to stop when we are facing too much loses in a row.

Actually, we don't forget, but rather we don't want to stop because we already lost a lot and we want to recover with the next bet which we think should be a winning one. I know this from my own experience, it's impossible to stop when you lost almost half of your bankroll.

Quote from: kurian on September 27, 2018, 10:07:58 AM

As you said, optimism in us makes us to bet more in hope of winning the next one. Keep trying will give us a win sooner or later but, to cover the loses we should have a huge bankroll which is not possible for normal gamblers to keep.

Many people talk about huge bankroll which is needed for martingale to be successful, but few of them realize that even very big one wouldn't save them from losing all their balance in a matter of seconds. For example, with just one satoshi as initial bet you can lose over 1.3 BTC when hitting 27 reds in a row.

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Like an actual strategy, martingale is like the easiest way to lose tons of money without even being aware of it in the process. It's really easy to keep doubling and waiting for a good result. However, now that I think of it, perhaps as a theoretical strategy, it does work in 100% of the cases? It's not applicable to real world, but suppose an infinite bankroll for, say dice. You, you take a standard martingale strategy by choosing something with about 50% chance of winning, and double the bet in case you lose. With an infinite bankroll and infinite number of random rolls of dice, eventually you will end up putting a huge sum of money on the option that will win, right? If it's odd or even, it can't be even all the time. It will come to the 'odd' at some point and you'll get your money back and will probably even win something, right? The reason it's dangerous and bad for real life is that the bankroll is not infinite and people end up with no money to continue the game at some unlucky point, devastated that they lost everything.

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Quote from: SyGambler on September 23, 2018, 06:13:15 AM

chasing the past loss is way too dangerous

I like this word and yes, chasing the loss is not making us any chance to win, and even worst, we can get another loss, and this is why that we need to know when we need to stop the game. I don't know about using any strategy on the gambling games because I don't want to get confused with the strategy and I think I will it as a simple way to enjoy the game. And no matter you use Martingale or not, in the end, you are risking your money, and you will lose your money.

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Quote from: SyGambler on September 23, 2018, 06:13:15 AM

AND CONGRATULATIONS YOU JUST BUSTED AROUND 2 MILLIONS CHASING AND TRYING TO WIN 100 !!!!

See, that's the reason why I don't understand that Martingale is so popular. If you have a large enough bankroll to survive a lot of losses, there would be far better ways to put that money into good use.
Something that will get you a better return with way less risk.

Every time I see people recommend Martingale, I really wonder how it can have such an appeal to people, while it's pretty obvious that it doesn't work.

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Quote from: STT on September 27, 2018, 07:43:06 PM

Mixing this over simplified system with Forex or sports gambling even seems like a disaster. Like so not a good thing, they make movies about the failure visted upon the people who dont learn early thats a bad idea.

It is a disaster, even with 50-50 chance, martingale already a bad strategy, with forex or sport gambling that got high house edge, it definitely not a good idea at all, martingale is not a good idea because in long run you will always lose the game, and it's not worth to spend a huge amount of money to win over small base bet, martingale maybe can work in short time and you need to put stop loss, but for long term, it's going to make you bankrupt really quickly

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Mixing this over simplified system with Forex or sports gambling even seems like a disaster. Like so not a good thing, they make movies about the failure visted upon the people who dont learn early thats a bad idea.

At the very least I would recommend only starting with a super low pennies bet but really dont do it at all. The point with FOREX is that the odds will vary by various tides and influences that apply through a day. Start of trading begins with Tokyo, then London then hands to New York and out of hours trading and other centres perhaps. The point I'm making there is all those people of those countries vary, how can a bet be calculated by any simple system when its consistency is changing so much throughout.

If you want to an incredibly bleak but also artful movie imo that includes an awful bet of this type, then watch Bad Lieutenant (1992) with Harvey Kietel . Probably you shouldnt watch it but also it felt a very real depiction of the worst judgement

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On a games like dice and color games, I think Martingale strategy will work but not 100%, but not on games like sports betting and card games this will not work. This is designed on games that relies only on what will be the outcome of the game without the use of strategies like in basketball, boxing, poker. In games like color game and dice all you need is just toss and your done. I guess that's where it will work.

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Quote from: Betwrong on September 27, 2018, 06:47:03 AM

I have a theory on why martingale is so attractive. In real life when we are doing something repeatedly, for example, trying to find a good job, we eventually succeed in most cases. It is so because in fact we are not doing the same thing over and over again. We are improving with every new attempt: we learn more stuff, we act more politely during a job interview, etc. Thus we are increasing our chances of success and that’s why we normally succeed after a certain amount of attempts.

Now, in gambling by making more attempts we are not improving anything. We can lose an unlimited amount of times in a row regardless of the number of previous attempts. But since human beings tend to be optimistic, our brain dismisses the reality and we think that in gambling we can also succeed after a certain amount of attempts as we do in real life when looking for a good job. This is a substitution error, if you will, and we must understand it for the avoidance of losing everything to martingale.

When doing martingale we often forgets to stop when we are facing too much loses in a row. As you said, optimism in us makes us to bet more in hope of winning the next one. Keep trying will give us a win sooner or later but, to cover the loses we should have a huge bankroll which is not possible for normal gamblers to keep.

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Quote from: crwth on September 27, 2018, 06:56:28 AM

Quote from: SyGambler on September 27, 2018, 06:34:42 AM

the thing is it really doesn't worth it , why to risk your whole bankroll to chase winning back little amount that you lost previously
as I said martingale is a disaster , it makes even the good sportsbettor and trader lose money at some point
these losing streaks are unavoidable , so the only way is to have a good staking plan and keep betting regularly and if you have an edge then long run you will win without risking your whole bankroll

If it's for a short-term, I think it's okay; it can be worth it but not all the time. In a sense, it's true; it depends on the amount you have bet and towards the thought of having more and still winning. It is a disaster and scary to do but what it could do is save your previous bet. I agree with Hydrogen that it could be another way around, but I haven't tried that. Usually what I do is double my bet every time I lose then reset. It's something to be worried about when using a martingale, but overall, you are risking something when gambling. There's always pros and cons.

well yeah mate and I'm not talking about normal casino games like dice where you mathematically you will lose anyways
I'm talking about things that can generate you income if you are good , so if you are a successful sportsbettor or a good trader will you do your bets or trades only for few days ?
of course not since you are good you should be aiming to doing that as much as you can

and even in short term the bad variance may come at the very first try

so my point of this thread was just to prove than even if you are profitable with sportsbetting you will bust your whole bakroll with martinagle
as you can see the tipster I follow had a long losing period , but overall he is still profitable so imagine if he was martingaling how much money he would had lost

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Quote from: SyGambler on September 27, 2018, 06:34:42 AM

the thing is it really doesn't worth it , why to risk your whole bankroll to chase winning back little amount that you lost previously
as I said martingale is a disaster , it makes even the good sportsbettor and trader lose money at some point
these losing streaks are unavoidable , so the only way is to have a good staking plan and keep betting regularly and if you have an edge then long run you will win without risking your whole bankroll

If it's for a short-term, I think it's okay; it can be worth it but not all the time. In a sense, it's true; it depends on the amount you have bet and towards the thought of having more and still winning. It is a disaster and scary to do but what it could do is save your previous bet. I agree with Hydrogen that it could be another way around, but I haven't tried that. Usually what I do is double my bet every time I lose then reset. It's something to be worried about when using a martingale, but overall, you are risking something when gambling. There's always pros and cons.

Betwrong

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I have a theory on why martingale is so attractive. In real life when we are doing something repeatedly, for example, trying to find a good job, we eventually succeed in most cases. It is so because in fact we are not doing the same thing over and over again. We are improving with every new attempt: we learn more stuff, we act more politely during a job interview, etc. Thus we are increasing our chances of success and that’s why we normally succeed after a certain amount of attempts.

Now, in gambling by making more attempts we are not improving anything. We can lose an unlimited amount of times in a row regardless of the number of previous attempts. But since human beings tend to be optimistic, our brain dismisses the reality and we think that in gambling we can also succeed after a certain amount of attempts as we do in real life when looking for a good job. This is a substitution error, if you will, and we must understand it for the avoidance of losing everything to martingale.

SyGambler

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Quote from: crwth on September 27, 2018, 06:01:09 AM

I think it's a double-edged sword where you or the casino, in this case, the bookmaker, is at risk, of losing or winning. If you managed to try it, it's not always bad but having every bet losing? It's a low chance event, but it could happen still. As you said, it's a lesson that everyone should understand and not just try immediately. If someone is planning to do it, try doing a calculated martingale or somewhat modified to your liking, not only directly multiplying by two.

the thing is it really doesn't worth it , why to risk your whole bankroll to chase winning back little amount that you lost previously
as I said martingale is a disaster , it makes even the good sportsbettor and trader lose money at some point
these losing streaks are unavoidable , so the only way is to have a good staking plan and keep betting regularly and if you have an edge then long run you will win without risking your whole bankroll

crwth

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I think it's a double-edged sword where you or the casino, in this case, the bookmaker, is at risk, of losing or winning. If you managed to try it, it's not always bad but having every bet losing? It's a low chance event, but it could happen still. As you said, it's a lesson that everyone should understand and not just try immediately. If someone is planning to do it, try doing a calculated martingale or somewhat modified to your liking, not only directly multiplying by two.

Topic: A Little Example How Matingale Doesn't Work Even In Sportsbetting and Trading - page 2. (Read 625 times)