Topic: A MACD Analysis Thread (Read 3156 times)
seams we need to address this point macd wont tell you where the freaking top or bottom is if that shit even existed we wont have a market no forex no stocks nothing caput dead muerto mort. Macd just tell you how is the present price compared maximum of past 26 period (default settings )
Uh oh! macd says get out at the bottom.
it ain't no bottom yet
Uh oh! macd says get out at the bottom.
Uh oh! macd says get out at the bottom.
1h macd is about to have a bearish cross so anyone who joined the market from the last bullish cross will have to exit
note that hull macd is very sensible
http://yfrog.com/hsouuvp
remember if any of this is usefully for you donate
note that hull macd is very sensible
http://yfrog.com/hsouuvp
remember if any of this is usefully for you donate
1d macd is not doing anything
http://yfrog.com/ockuboep
1d hull macd is about to cross but remember hull MA is extremely sensible
http://yfrog.com/nx3kqpp
http://yfrog.com/ockuboep
1d hull macd is about to cross but remember hull MA is extremely sensible
http://yfrog.com/nx3kqpp
I hate to break it to you, but the MACD has a fatal flaw. In essence, the MACD is really a lagging indicator. But people seem to think that by shifting the values into future by inconsistent amounts, they can turn it into a leading indicator. That is stupid, of course, but that's what people do. By inconsistent, I mean that the two moving averages used to calculated the MACD are offset by different amounts (of time), and that generates lot of noise which most people interpret (unfortunately) as signals.
Ever wonder why moving averages never seem to be aligned with the data they are averaging? That is because usually when they are drawn, they are shifted into the future by N/2 periods. For example, a 26-day MA is shifted into the future by 13 days and a 12-day MA is shifted by 6 days. This is why the yellow and purple lines on your MACD chart look similar but are not aligned.
If you combine a MA shifted 13 days with a MA shifted 6 days, you get noise. If you remove the shifts, then two things will happen.
1. You will get real signals, and no noise.
2. The signals will all happen after-the-fact.
The MACD is really a lagging indicator, which means that it can't be used to predict anything.
Ever wonder why moving averages never seem to be aligned with the data they are averaging? That is because usually when they are drawn, they are shifted into the future by N/2 periods. For example, a 26-day MA is shifted into the future by 13 days and a 12-day MA is shifted by 6 days. This is why the yellow and purple lines on your MACD chart look similar but are not aligned.
If you combine a MA shifted 13 days with a MA shifted 6 days, you get noise. If you remove the shifts, then two things will happen.
1. You will get real signals, and no noise.
2. The signals will all happen after-the-fact.
The MACD is really a lagging indicator, which means that it can't be used to predict anything.
By this logic, ALL indicators are flawed, since all indicators/oscillators are a retold story of the past. The MACD is nothing more than a pair of exponential moving averages and the convergence/divergence thereof. Similar to the (10, 20, 50, 100, 200) EMA crosses used as an entry level, textbook indicator for determining shifting market trends.
Nothing is perfect in TA. You can only make the most informed decision based on what has already happened.
I hate to break it to you, but the MACD has a fatal flaw. In essence, the MACD is really a lagging indicator. But people seem to think that by shifting the values into future by inconsistent amounts, they can turn it into a leading indicator. That is stupid, of course, but that's what people do. By inconsistent, I mean that the two moving averages used to calculated the MACD are offset by different amounts (of time), and that generates lot of noise which most people interpret (unfortunately) as signals.
Ever wonder why moving averages never seem to be aligned with the data they are averaging? That is because usually when they are drawn, they are shifted into the future by N/2 periods. For example, a 26-day MA is shifted into the future by 13 days and a 12-day MA is shifted by 6 days. This is why the yellow and purple lines on your MACD chart look similar but are not aligned.
If you combine a MA shifted 13 days with a MA shifted 6 days, you get noise. If you remove the shifts, then two things will happen.
1. You will get real signals, and no noise.
2. The signals will all happen after-the-fact.
The MACD is really a lagging indicator, which means that it can't be used to predict anything.
Ever wonder why moving averages never seem to be aligned with the data they are averaging? That is because usually when they are drawn, they are shifted into the future by N/2 periods. For example, a 26-day MA is shifted into the future by 13 days and a 12-day MA is shifted by 6 days. This is why the yellow and purple lines on your MACD chart look similar but are not aligned.
If you combine a MA shifted 13 days with a MA shifted 6 days, you get noise. If you remove the shifts, then two things will happen.
1. You will get real signals, and no noise.
2. The signals will all happen after-the-fact.
The MACD is really a lagging indicator, which means that it can't be used to predict anything.
MACD dont give us much clue only the fast MACD histogram points out lower it can also be a false signal because it is over sensible
http://yfrog.com/mgoaqcp
http://yfrog.com/mgoaqcp
I am looking at a 1 h macd that looks quite different
(bitcoincharts.com)
I am looking at a 1 h macd that looks quite different
(bitcoincharts.com)
bullish cross above ZL and ppl who did the 5 Histo bar front running you risked and got a better entry
what i said on the above post get confirmed here
http://yfrog.com/h6yfuep
what i said on the above post get confirmed here
http://yfrog.com/h6yfuep
the ZL can provide a bounce and a bullish cross but is way to early to tell there is room for side ways for another week and then the bounce of cross can happen
http://yfrog.com/od8u1grp
http://yfrog.com/od8u1grp
so far is a small divergence on 1d chart
http://yfrog.com/kjru2up
macd on 1h chart did X above ZL
http://yfrog.com/esdtkep
http://yfrog.com/kjru2up
macd on 1h chart did X above ZL
http://yfrog.com/esdtkep
the darker ones (slower?)
yesare lagging compared to the lighter ones (faster?)
yesbut they tend to line up very tightly at local tops/bottoms.
because MACD is a oscillator
It seems that in the "layered" MACD histogram, the darker ones (slower?) are lagging compared to the lighter ones (faster?), but they tend to line up very tightly at local tops/bottoms. This may be good for helping in the decision making for entry/exit. Obviously reinforced by other technicals. I do sense the possibility of over trading on shorter bar periods (looks like you used hourly?) If used on a daily chart, it may minimize some of the noise and false triggers, at the expense of a smaller profit.
What do people think about using the MACD histogram to front run MACD crosses? For example when the histogram bars stop rising upwards and the most recent bar is lower than the last bar (in an uptrend). Any good indicator to confirm the "rate reversal" you would see in the MACD histogram?
first one need to remember what is the meaning for histo bar where are the histo bars above or below
is there any divergence ?
macd is a oscillator ( https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/oscillator-vs-indicator-know-them-before-you-speculate-131184 ) so in your scenario i will consider a change IF the bars and macd lines are above the ZL and after 3 histo bars heading lower 5th bar will reinforce this and there should be more analysis in lower and larger time frame using macd, then checking the trend, momentum indicators, BB, EW, MA and FIB levels
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