Topic: A member LIST .. What do we speculate the price will be this summer JOIN IN - page 13. (Read 5834 times)

$57,089

A hunch

Very nice post, kind worths and a nice price target, for a long time it seems you know how it works pretty good
For the sit/drink/dinner/..... we know it’s coming

Cheers

$67,937

$59,829
After price corrections comes a bullish trend.

62,800

i think this will be the covered value for the end of the quarter  and may climb high in the 3rd .

I have no skills on TA so this is just an honest guess. 
$61,015

$57,775

Update, please always check if you're on the list... also check if the price you wanna write down isn't already taken...

24,472  proudhon
33,333  sgbett
43,000  HeRetiK*
44,290  morvillz7z
46,640  sabotag3x*
47,200  Biodom*
48,377  xandry
48,520  Elwar*
48,777  theymos*
49,500  sheenshane*
50,000  Charles-Tim*
50,823  janggernaut*
51,770  bakasabo*
52,000  LoyceV
52,300  HairyMaclairy
52,469  acroman08
52,520  Woodie*
53,082  ETFbitcoin
53,333  icopress*
54,000  brokedummy
54,700  MoparMiningLLC*
55,000  bitebits*
55,500  jojo69
56,056  TopTort777
56,200  Arriemoller
56,230  Oasisman*
56,700  dothebeats*
57,452  weetious
58,133  Haunebu*
58,222  sirazimuth
58,500  LFC_Bitcoin*
58,820  kurious*
59,250  Krubster*
59,804  bitbollo
60,000  vapourminer
60,424  shahzadafzal*
61,767  DdmrDdmr*
62,220  Mbitr
63,800  DeathAngel*
64,321  smartcomet
65,000  AlcoHoDL
65,847  Dabs
66,666  soullyG
67,500  BitcoinBunny
68,000  2stout
69,420  SatsLife*
69,690  ChinkyEyes
70,000  philipma1957
70,500  Slot Kid
71,500  fillippone
72,239  cAPSLOCK*
72,400  Phil_S
72,555  OutOfMemory
73,155  d_eddie*
74,800  psycodad
75,800  friends1980*
77,500  Paashaas
77,777  JimboToronto
86,839  slaveforanunnak1
89,175  Yabes
100,000 somac.

$60,424

Reason 0.077BTC

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Analysis:

Ok guys i have put all my calculus, geometry, trigonometry, economics and math's knowledge into it and I spent well over one hour to process all the data and come to this price (source code also available on request if someone want to enhance, by source code i mean the excel sheet and notepad++).

I tried to used Guess 2/3 of the average, any one guessing $0 or $1 million by 21 Jun 2021 that will be rational. I can suppose that all the players are rational so it's based on the "common knowledge of rationality of all players".

Finally in school my math teacher told me "The weighted arithmetic mean is similar to an ordinary arithmetic mean (the most common type of average), except that instead of each of the data points contributing equally to the final average, some data points contribute more than others. The notion of weighted mean plays a role in descriptive statistics and also occurs in a more general form in several other areas of mathematics."

ok done : $60,424

Note: 60 participants data thoroughly analyzed from somac. to proudhon, it's shocking how proudhon didn't predict zero and theymos with 9th lowest prediction.

A Fortuneteller told me that I would make a big fortune in the first half year of 2021. As I didn't , so this may be my last chance.
I think over and over again, and $64321 is the bet.

$58,222  (my lucky number for...reasons)

Thanx dude! If I win again, I'll send you another custom medallion!  (and maybe buy some vocal lessons  )

$44,290

Thanks for hosting this game!

46,640

47200

mostly agree with a nice post from Theymos. I also wrote something about price dynamics in WO.
47.2 could be a bounce up from the intermittent 42-43 low.

I don't like giving Theymos a merit point for obvious reason he does not need them.  But it is very well thought out and reasonable set of numbers.

Especially doge = BTC and BTC = Doge concept as it is true to a lot of people.

If you are looking for a coin that is well backed by asics BTC is king but LTC/DOGE has a very solid power use base.

My partners develop solar fields in New Jersey and to act as a tool to make a larger solar array mining BTC is pretty much equal to LTC/DOGE.

So thanks again for the well thought post.
I also quoted curious as I agree with him.

Interesting analysis, Theymos.  A lot rings true.  I still think we are looking at a very bullish last quarter this year, but I can't help nodding in agreement at the rough ride we'll have getting there.

My ability to predict the price isn't great at the best of times, but I've been especially uncertain lately. There are strong bearish forces:
 - Institutional money cares a lot about ESG virtue signalling, and I think that the "Bitcoin is not ESG" meme will grow, though I'm not sure to what extent.
 - Any regulatory news is much more likely to be bad than good, and could be very bad. Even just pressure on eg. Robinhood to reduce the "gamification" of investing could hurt BTC to some extent.
 - BTC tends to be correlated with high-risk things (eg. TSLA shares), and these have been falling for a variety of reasons.
 - Interest rates may rise, which makes BTC less attractive because there's less easy money floating around, the far-future prospect of "BTC takes over the world" gets discounted to a lower present value, safer returns are possible elsewhere, etc.
 - A lot of the recent FOMO in all markets may have been due to people being stuck inside, going a bit crazy, with more time and money than usual. This is ending.
 - There's a ton of money held by old hodlers. A lot of these will be tempted to at least incrementally sell as the price goes higher, and they may especially be tempted to panic sell if one day they're a multi-millionaire and the next they're worried that they're going to lose everything due to a sharp price drop (ie. panic selling could cause a small correction to turn into a bloodbath). On top of that, there is an absolutely huge amount of unrealized capital gains held by US Bitcoiners who will want to realize these gains before any significant capital gains tax increases. In fact, Bitcoin is probably the single traded asset that you'd expect to be most affected by Biden's proposed capital gains tax increase. (I predict that the capital gains tax will increase to 30% for $1M+, non-retroactive: less than Biden's proposal, but still enough of an increase to make realizing your gains this year very attractive.)
 - A lot of the money in BTC is pure speculation: the kind of people who see absolutely no difference between DOGE and BTC, for example, and would be happy to pile onto anything that will get them to the moon ASAP. This money is easy-come, easy-go.
 
But there are also strong bullish forces:
 - Institutional money really wants to get into BTC, viewing it as a unique new asset class. This is only one small bullet point in my list, but the interest from large piles of money to shift some of it into BTC is immense.
 - Huge companies are now holding BTC and even accepting it for goods/services. If companies actually started trading in BTC instead of USD, that'd be extremely bullish.
 - Crypto trading is a large, integral component of retail trading now, to an extent that I think has not been fully realized by the market. Many people would rather give up stock trading than crypto trading, if they had to choose. Paypal, Robinhood, and even traditional brokerage firms will expand their BTC offerings. The more accessible BTC buying gets, the higher the price is likely to go.
 - The "interest rates" offered by eg. BlockFi are extremely attractive, and I think that more companies such as Robinhood will soon offer similar things.
 - There's clearly strong "buy the dip" support from somewhere, since it's seemed several times that the price wanted to crash, but it was stopped.
 - Even though I listed it as a possible bearish factor, I don't actually think that interest rates will move substantially higher. In fact, I could see the US entering something of a recession in fall due to a "hangover" from the ridiculous fiscal and monetary stimulus. Low growth = low rates and a search for growth in more speculative areas like BTC. And there's still an unbelievable amount of fiat floating around, looking for somewhere to go.
 - In addition to being viewed as an aggressive speculative asset, BTC can also be viewed as defensive: similar to gold, it's a hedge against the fiat world falling apart. The money-printing over the last year has made it plain to more and more people that fiat is a joke, and it's likely IMO that before the year is over there will be some serious problems with the fiat economy.

By the end of the year, both $25k and $100k are about equally believable IMO...

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BTC has seemed pretty comfy in the $50k-$60k range. It tends to get pushed up rapidly whenever there are big drops. However, over the next few months I'm a little more fundamentally bearish than bullish, and technically I also get the sense that there's more downward pressure than upward pressure. IMO, until ~fall we're most likely to be going up and down in a wide range with a slight negative slope. Something like this (I realize that this is not proper technical analysis: I'm drawing the lines where they feel right to me, not based on proven support/resistance or any math):


For now there is upward pressure whenever it goes below $50k, but this could be fully broken by Jun 21. I guess $48,777.

Please can I ask you 3 more guesses as well ??

21th of June 2021 what will be worth one Bcash?
21th of June 2021 what will be worth one BSV?
Will CWS again try to prove he's Satoshi?

Thx in advance...

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  LOL, just deleted the post and repost it after the list update, excuse me Sir

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Better yet.. will CSW be out of jail on June 21, 2021?  That fuck.

 

My guess would be:
61540$


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61,540 Iced