Topic: A more in-depth BTC/USD analysis... - page 2. (Read 3612 times)

I don't have any knowledge of if the number is wrong or right but to put it into context FC4B does >$20K per day and BitInstant is a lot larger and older.  Even if inaccurate $100K is certainly a plausible number.  IIRC there was a Forbes article over a year ago which said something (paraphrasing from memory) like "more than $1M a month".  A year is forever in Bitcoin time.  I mean it is over 87,000 blocks.  I think people who assume bitointalk = Bitcoin have no idea how big the system is becoming.  

yeah, that'd be $36.5 million a year.

yeah i highly doubt it. thats nearly all of the average volume on gox

source?

On a similiar note I think people who use BitInstant don't really care about the price as much as online traders.  They are going to a store, picking up a phone, ordering a money gram or whatever and get their bitcoins.  Most of them will not say, "I am going to wait an hour to see if prices drop."  No.  They are at a store and they want their bitcoins.

Supposedly, BitInstant is doing $100K+ a day.

No you can't cause you can't see the off exchange volume.

Anyone who values something by its nominal price doesn't have enough funds to move the market anywhere.  It would be like saying Apple stock is expensive but if Apple did a 100:1 split it would be an amazing buy.  If people say BTC is too expensive try selling them some mBTC.  mBTC are going for the low price of ~$0.20 per mBTC.  They just need to switch their client to mBTC mode in the dropdown to get in on this better value coin.

Hundreds of BTC ... now that is some large action.  If they can't move those coins tell them to contact me.  I need some regulars looking to unload 10K-20K a week and I then I might be able to meet demand without outages.  Probably not smart to mix whiskey with posting but if you aren't thinking on the scale of buyers who can pickup ten thousand coins a week, every week nonstop since June, well you are thinking way too small. Hint: it is happening everyday.  Coins moving from people looking for a quick payday to those making strategic acquisitions.


BTW no insult intended your technical chart and other metrics look about as good as anyone else's I just thought the above quotes were interesting given my somewhat unique view of off-exchange activity.  Also none of this should be taken as a sign the market can't go down.  The market goes where it wants to go and I don't trade just arbitrage.

+1

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Prices hovering just below the 1-year high of $21.43/BTC. I'm watching this with my undivided attention and interest. 

What happens here at this key technical level will give us a hint as to longer-term future of the BTC/USD rate. I really, really want to see a mild and orderly correction here to allow for a healthy re-balancing of all the money in the Bitconomy. In every market money can only flow in one direction for so long before it's time for some profits to be taken and liquidation and moving-around of funds. Too much money moving in one direction means too much speculative capital stacking up in one place, and holds the market hostage with mass liquidations... too much volatility is, imo, counter-productive for a currency. And we want Bitcoin to grow from new adopters and users, rather than speculative money (though speculation is a valuable slice of the pie).

So watch that $21.43 level. If we fail to take it out, I would prepare for a decent correction and be an enthusiastic buyer near the $17-$16 range (if we get there). There is always the possibility that we catch another big gust in our sails and break out again, but I think continuing to run too far without a rest is a bad thing.

Regards,

--ATC--

Good analysis. Thank's.

You bring up a valid point. If the market stays flat-calm here at these levels for a week or two I would interpret that as an indication that the rally has legs and these prices will stick. Would indeed be a very bullish sign. Likewise, I think a decent correction is a healthy thing and I will be buying BTC like crazy in any dips.

Regards,

--ATC--

How do you transfer fiat to MtGox and other exchanges without paying more than the exchange fee?

I'm a little confused why you'ld do that.  Doesn't that cause you to incur exchange fees three times?  Buying, selling and then eventual re-buy?  Why not transfer fiat and just pay exchange fees once?

https://blockchain.info/charts/miners-operating-profit-margin

The miners are back to their comfort zone.

This big $21 ask wall is certainly going to stall things too...

Thanks for sharing ATC

Beware that the fundamentals for bitcoin are unusual.

The block reward halved at the end of Nov-2012 so some of the recent price increase could be a delayed effect of halved supply.
The number of users is exponentially increasing...
https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users
doesn't this look like the price chart?

Buying bitcoin in 2013 could be compared to buying Microsoft shares in 1988. Sensible at any 1988 price...

Welcome to speculation ATC and thanks for sharing.

I think that while you are correct that a double top could be forming, I am not so sure it will succeed. With bitcoin one of the most important factors to consider is the weekend dip (a result of the fact that the exchanges are open 24/7. but the banks are not). Another thing to consider about Bitcoin is that it doesnt tend to dip in the same way that forex or other markets do. If we are in a long term bull trend, the price tends to hover around one target and not move up (rather than retrace down before continuing up).

I think the chances are greater that we continue at this level for some time (similar to what happened at 13) and then continue the trend back up again.

It is also possible we will be consolidating at these levels...

I feel like the double-tip pattern might be a result of a self-manifesting "weekend dip", where people noticed that prices dipped around the weekend due to lack of fiat being converted on weekends or such, and now they are moving with that pattern.

If we touch $23 this week, and then Fall to $21 or so this weekend, I think that would prove this.

My theory and your analysis could both be on the right track at the same time though, which would make the correction more graded too...

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing.