Topic: A move (almost) no one is expecting: gap at $11795 - page 3. (Read 843 times)

Even though most gaps usually fill, you need to realise some of them take a very long time to fill. Basically I have kept the CME gaps in mind when I am looking to take profit on a trade but I never take a trade just based on the fact that a gap needs to fill.

Imagine taking a long at $11500 because you assumed it would go to $11795 and you ended up having price go to the low $3K's. Is it worth it going against you that much just gain about $300? No.

Hence don't take these gap traders too seriously. Sure they will eventually fill but the question is when?

Any break above 10300 now would seem to indicate a break upwards, that could lead to this higher price but I dont know it has to fall especially harshly after that.    I always attribute moves to the market itself not whales, the most some rich traders could do on leverage is topple a boulder already standing atop a hillside. If its setup to fall then its going to happen or at the least be tested, its a natural process so waves back and forth will dislodge most positions.   I think the test down is yet to come but theres no sign yet.

This reminds me of an idea from xxxx123abcxxxx:


As I said in his thread, it would be quite a mind fuck and would really confuse the market. It could be one route to achieving maximum pain. However, Bitfinex shorts continue to fall and are quite low already as longs continue to rise. Bitmex interest rates also indicate bears are not keen on shorting. That suggests to me the direction of maximum pain is actually downward from here, keeping $10.5K intact.

Sentiment analysis is not exactly a science though.

I'd already considered a move to just short of $12K as more than possible, and in my mind the target of a breakout as is the next approximate level of resistance, as some other analysts have also identified. The fact that there is a futures gap up there does make a lot more sense for prices to reach this level. I'm grateful you made me look at the CME chart as there is a double bullish cross-over (including golden cross) of the 50, 100 & 200 Day MAs around $8,500. I also think it's possible price could move down to these levels as a bull trap for spot/leverage traders, before futures traders buy up this golden cross and volume point of control support level.



That said, I don't see any reason why prices would then fall back down to the $5-7K region or lower. Of course they could, anything could happen; global panic could continue, the stock markets could have a volitle crash again after a double top, many things could happen, the future is unknown. But in my mind, breaking through $10.5K to $12K level, would mean somewhere between $8-10.5K would be more likely to act as support, as there would be a lot of support waiting for the price at these levels given a successful breakout upwards.

That was difficult to speculate. And I'm afraid that many usual traders and investors will fall into their traps. The Zigzag line tells us that dumps will certainly be followed with pumps in a short while but I'm not sure if all of us here had already noticed that trend.

What I have observed now is that it takes more time to recover and reach another peak, and quite that different as it dumps. The $10k resistance that we've been waiting for is already broke but the problem is that the market can't able to sustain that high, instead it drops back again. Well, that whales have something to do in order to catch their prey and that they'll do now is quite effective and beneficial to them but too sad that small market players and newcomers had suffered such (expected) losses.

Holders will not be impacted as long as they hold you are right about this, I was specifically talking about traders who work with stop losses all the time (both bears and bulls), thanks for adding this precision even though, some bulls who are not traders will lose money in this scenario because we know how it works, you buy expecting Bitcoin price to pump, but there is a crash and lots of them will sell after seeing so many red candles. Emotions and money often do not fit well together.

Short term and medium term traders will be wrecked, but I'm not sure either of those are mutually exclusive to bulls or bears.

I'm probably always short/medium bear and very long term very bull, and neither of those scenarios wreck me, both actually benefit me since I'm always buying in any of that range!

Alternative thread title: Whales boost long-term users, dump out speculators?

What if the whales decide to wreck both bears and bulls in the next coming weeks?


At the time of this post, Bitcoin is trading a bit above $9700.





Now we are well aware of the big resistance at $10500, placing a short with a stop loss at $10600 sounds too easy, too obvious?

Whales could destroy all those bears and liquidate all these stop losses.


Then everyone would turn bullish because the resistance has been officially broken. Whales now can destroy these bulls, go to $11795 area to fill the gap on the future exchange.


Coincidentally, our Fibonacci gives us $11765 (Fib 100) since the last $8600ish bottom   Would be amazing if this happens. This way, the whales ruin both bears and bulls. Our lovely downtrend is back from $11.7k to go below $7000 for a first take profit target (that would be around $6700).






The move from $11.7k to below $9.5k needs to be quick, similar to June 2019 when we touched $13.8k then dropped very fast from there (gravestone doji).





A quick drop is necessary so the monthly candle of June 2020 doesn't close above $9.7k, this is necessary to stay in the bearish triangle that started since December 2017.

Best way to benefit from such possible move is to wait for $11600 and short the market from there, with a tight stop loss above $11.8k.


Wait and see  





tl;dr

Whales troll the market, pump to $11.7k then dump with a possible crash to $3.1k area.

A more boring version is we reached our top for 2020 already and Bitcoin will not break the $10.5k resistance. More boring but also more expected at this stage.