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Topic: A new and improved BTC difficulty thread inclusive of every coin no censorship. - page 2. (Read 487 times)

full member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 216
It's not just a thread - it is an entire section that is BTC only. Frankly, to cut down on noise about the few valid alts and the massive number of truly crap altcoins I for one prefer that the folks running the Forum keep it that way.

I agree except for the mining sub-section. Mining is mining, there's no need for segregation.
I've also seen the hostility when someone stumbles onto their turf. There's no need for that either.

I'm just trying to show support for Phil, he doesn't deserve to be chased away like that.
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 7701
'The right to privacy matters'
I didn't dare ask the question in the other thread, so thank you for creating this one. Is it the power shortage in China that is responsible for the huge drop in hashrate OR because people switched over to mining BCH when the earnings were significantly higher than BTC?

more that eth is way way way better at $ per watt.

and with power becoming higher cost pick you best gear.

some that bch was godlike for a few days.

some that ltc/doge was better than bch was.



so if your power cost alters you drop the lessor coins.

@ fuzzy its cool

I have enough arguments in economics when I try to blend all POW  coins  into my watt  to dollar earnings ratio concept.



legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2490
Evil beware: We have waffles!
A thread for BTC mining exclusively has been obsolete since 2014.
Since 2014 BTC is no longer the only large cap coin, sha256d is no longer the only ASIC mineable algorithm,
and many altcoins use the same mining equipment as BTC and face the same issues.
It's not just a thread - it is an entire section that is BTC only. Frankly, to cut down on noise about the few valid alts and the massive number of truly crap altcoins I for one prefer that the folks running the Forum keep it that way.

@Phil, personally I would have done this topic in the General Discussion or Economics area where discussion of any coin is not only allowed but expected...
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 7701
'The right to privacy matters'
I am not going to reveal all my thoughts about why including all POW  coins in difficulty threads is needed.

I am not going to reveal all my thoughts about why I do not like POS COINS.

BUT  my thoughts on what have happened to BTC diff and other diff  are as follows.

Power is the key asset to turn profit.

So watts per hash per earnings translate into dollar per watt.

SO the biggest miner is bitmain.

They run the most gear

They have asics for LTC/DOGE merged mining
They have asics for BTC and or BCH
They have asics for ETH

They get or build them cheaply however you want to explain it. They get bargain prices for the gear.

All facts


So sell cloud mining for LTC ETH and BTC along with BCH-they do
Make good cheap machines-they do


I believe they have excess

LTC/DOGE asics
BTC+BCH asics
ETH asics

if they can raise coin prices and tamp down difficulty they never need to sell their gear they can mine

lets say 144 x 7.25 = 1044 bitcoins every day new and fees

1024x60000 = 62,640,000 a day in BTC wealth

lets say 144 x 6.25+ 5  = 905 a day in BCH or 905,000 a day in BCH wealth

lets say 5.3 mill x 100 x .09 = 47,700,000 a day in ETH wealth

lets say

6.81 x 302300 = 2,058,663 a day in LTC wealth

14,972,094 x .3 = 4,491,628 a day in LTC wealth


so above is about what is mined today in 1 day for all the coins I mention

it adds to 117.79 million a day x 365 is 42,995,281,215

 42 billion a year in new mining coins.  


Why sell gear when carefully  shifting your excess gear always maxes your wealth per watt.


So they sell gear when mining prices crash.  Look at diff raise like mad in 2018 as prices drop.

This cycle someone on their team has figured out by holding back gear and having excess gear for all the cloud ops they can maneuver pricing of coins.

SO before the diff crash due to the coal shortage.

Eth diff went up higher and higher

BTC was flat or close to flat.  

They used 120% eth for every 100% they needed to pay the eth cloud miners off.

The extra 20%eth  was used to buy btc to pay some of the btc cloud miners. this saved them power cost.   remember all their gear is cheap for them so having 120 machines when they need 100 machines is easy for them.

Now we had a huge drop in power in china due to the coal issues .

You are bitmain you are getting power cut backs from the government.

You shut down some btc and turn on excess eth

here

btc 100% of the cloud gear needed   but you have  130%
ltc  100% of the cloud gear needed  but you have  130%
eth 100% of the cloud gear needed  but you have  130%

they have to do a massive shift to cover the power cuts and it is easy to see the pattern now.

but phil why not sell gear.

here is why. they can make a s19pro for under 2k and get 9k so 7k profit.

sell 10 = 70k
sell 100 = 700k
sell 1000 = 7m
sell 10000 = 70m
sell 100000 = 700m
sell 1000000 = 7b  

lets pretend they sell 1 million and turn 7billion profit


So showed at the top of the post there is about 42billion in coins to be mined.  and 1 million s19 units is
110eh so if they sold that much gear.  the network jumps to 160+110 = 270 eh

their 30% share of mining in the cloud drops to 17%

so 17% of 42 is 7.14 billion in mining with 7 billion in sales = 14 billion

or 30% of 42 = 12.6 billion in mining with 0 in sales seems worse to do what I say .

nope they set preorders 6 to 9 months in advance  sell 200000 miners profit 1.4 billion on them.

and they have up front money same profits by selling 200,000 as they do by selling 1,000,000

Yeah that's why I think BTC diff is not growing and ETH is growing.
along with BTC price doing 3x 2017 price and eth only doing 1.6 x 2017 prices.

It is what it is. Not sure how it shakes out in the long run.
full member
Activity: 1372
Merit: 216
A thread for BTC mining exclusively has been obsolete since 2014.
Since 2014 BTC is no longer the only large cap coin, sha256d is no longer the only ASIC mineable algorithm,
and many altcoins use the same mining equipment as BTC and face the same issues.

That BTC purity is still strictly enforced is nothing less than elitism, or at the risk of violating Godwin's law,
another kind of "ism".
full member
Activity: 201
Merit: 404
I didn't dare ask the question in the other thread, so thank you for creating this one. Is it the power shortage in China that is responsible for the huge drop in hashrate OR because people switched over to mining BCH when the earnings were significantly higher than BTC?
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 7701
'The right to privacy matters'
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 7701
'The right to privacy matters'
Spacer


Yeah  right now if you have an okay amount of gear and want more you are better off doing Newegg shuffle and hoping for a gpu.

For you in the US maybe, for us is a disaster, unless you go for a rx6700 and pay 1200euros you have to settle for 1050ti or an 1660 forgotten on stock, and the prices are hilarious sometimes, the 1050ti goes for 400 euros twice as much as when it was a brand new card.
But unlike in the asics business, Nvidia can produce easily millions of cards unless we see another insane surge in the price of altcoins probably the madness will stop, but god knows, I anticipated a lot of things and none came true

Back to bitcoin...

I wonder if this insane profit margin will fuel the theory of miners helping the overall price by not dumping to pay for electricity and other costs, at these rates you can easily cover the cost with a fraction of the income and not forced to liquidate like in the past.
It's still ~960 daily coins, (last24h) $60 million that are not completely hitting the exchanges....again, speculations, speculations









Yeah. I mine

BTC
ETH
LTC/DOGE
BCH
OCTOPUS
KAPOW

everything is designed on getting more BTC

So gpus on ebay in usa at stupidly high 2x prices  are a bargain compared to s19pros.

so buy a gpu at 2x msrp mine eth convert to cash and btc  is simply far better to do

than buying the s19pro on ebay or at blokforge.  blokforge had some s19pros at 16500. add tax and shipping  I got to just under 18000 for 1 s19pro

it makes 38 cents a th or 110 x 38 = $41.80 it burns 80 kwatts or 4 dollars that is 38 a day or 474 days to break even.  It is pretty loud it is hot. it needs a custom psu.

Which at the cost it is you should order the psu for it  just in case . say 500 more

I went to uk ebay and I see nvidia 3070 gpus for about. £1300 so 10 = £13000 = 17900 usd. tack on 500 for 2 mobos plus etc

and 18500 for the gpus vs 18000 for the s19pro

you get 600 mh or 600 x 19 cent that is 60 usd a day in eth auto vert to btc
power is under 50 kwatts or under 3 a day at 5 cent power
60 usd - 3 = 57 a day

18500/57 = 324 days to break even for 2 five card rigs

18500/38 = 474 days to break even for 1 s19pro and a spare psu


lets see with gpus you may or may not have the warranty since you got them on ebay
the gpus have resale value

the asic you have the crappy warranty service for 6 months.

but roi is 324 days vs 474 days.

this is directly affecting btc hashrate. as resources are diverting to  gpus

https://etherscan.io/chart/hashrate. from 269 nov 17 2020 to 539 apr 13 2021 about 100%

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate.   from 126 nov 17  2020 to  169 apr 13 2021  about 34%




remember the chip shortage will force choices on how to expand

I am going to check out merge mining of LTC/DOGE

and see if the hash rate has grown like ETH or like BTC



LTC was 171 on nov 17 2020
LTC is now 288 on apr 14 2021 or about 68% up
Doge was 191 on Nov 17 2020
Doge is now 285 on Apr 15 2021 or up about 49%



So BTC diff nov 2020 to April 2021 + 33%
Doge diff nov 2020 to April 2021 + 49%
LTC diff nov 2020 to April 2021 + 68%
ETH diff nov 2020 to April 2021 +100%

So it looks like a lot of people are doing what I do.

Mining the coins that  gets the most $ per watt

Then convert it to some fiat for bills and some BTC

Now when you look at merge mined LTC/Doge more diff increases than BTC. less than ETH

and the reason is LTC/Doge makes more per watt than an s19pro
but less per watt than gpu rigs.

you can get 2 l3+ for about 1000 usd
so you can get 36 for about 18000 usd

that would be 18gh
it would burn  648 kwatts

earn 112 usd in ltc
earn 96 usd in doge
208 -33 = 175 a day

18,000/175 = 102 days.  this looks best. but that is because doge has jumped to 12-13 cents.

I suspect more growth here except chip short age will slow it.

So when you look at it all.

any of the three are good to mine

but

ETH and or LTC/Doge are clearly more bang for the buck than BTC asics.

It should be interesting to watch this over the next 2-4 months.

~
By applying a simple cumulative distribution function of blocks found between 60 and 120 mins intervals we get
exp(−60/10)−exp(−120/10) =  0.24%, by pure luck you mean great luck? Grin.

You, you...you!  Grin
Now, just read a topic about another mess in China with power failures do toe coal mines accidents, I know some of the guys reading around here are more knowledgeable about the things happening there, how much of that is true?

The difficulty prediction is a mess:
Please forgive me if posted junk info based on what I saw on cryptothis.

Common bro, don't be like that, makes me feel like an a**!
I was just asking where you got that as obviously since I was watching that at different times than you I got some other numbers, plus I thought the first time the whole retarget was 7% and I was like, whaaat!?!




People are moving gear to BCH. It is up 29%

https://www.viabtc.com/.   check the numbers




say you own a s19pro 110th

so 110th x 0.3713 = 40.843 usd worth of btc

or 110th x 0.4564 = 50.204 usd worth of bch


mine direct to coinbase convert to btc  and you gain 25% rather than mining btc direct.


This is one of the reasons thinking btc only is fine for stacking a coin.  but

what you mine to get that btc needs to be flexible.  and

40 usd a day vs 50 usd a day is a big difference for 1 machine.

Quote
https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   679539  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   79.0516%  (148 / 187.22 expected, 39.22 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   23137439666472.05                            
Current Difficulty:   23581981443663.85                            
Next Difficulty:   between 18659038009141 and 22733651728131
Next Difficulty Change:   between -20.8759% and -3.5974%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:40 PM  (+1.9213%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 30, 2021 at 4:15 AM  (in 13d 5h 23m 24s)
Next Retarget (latest):   May 3, 2021 at 8:42 AM  (in 16d 9h 50m 8s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 35m 35s and 17d 17h 2m 20s


This would be quite amazing to get a 20% drop and have BTC go to 75K Grin

We can dream.

But I do see

BTC at 37.8 cents a th

BCH at 47.68 cents a th

26.5% better to mine BCH at the Moment.

No idea where he's getting it from, but I wish all this shitcoin crap would go back to the parts of the forum where it belongs.


unfortunately it is directly affecting BTC difficulty.

those numbers are all viabtc payout numbers.

If bitmain only built BTC gear.

I can see your point but they don't.

If bitmain only had BTC cloud I could see you point but they don't

If all other coins did not exist and could not be traded on the same exchanges as BTC I could see your point.

If you truly believe that $$$ per watt is meaningless to BTC difficulty I would agree with you.

But I will give it a rest.

Here is the chart I get for payouts for coins from via btc


at this moment in time eth mining  is the best way to covert power into cash and or btc

with LTC/Doge the second best








Well if power available is being dropped to Chinese Miners.

And they have multiple kinds of gear. But 20 percent less power what do they turn off?


A s19pro burning 3300 watts to make 40 usd

or

a  shit coin asic machine  burning 3300 watts to earn 270 usd.

Both units earn money.

but one earns 6.5 x the  money for the same power.

These are real examples of real gear that does exist .

China is short power.

Btc gear is being shut down.

I as a USA miner may soon see a 23% boost in my btc earnings.


Quote
Current Pace:   76.8564%  (282 / 366.92 expected, 84.92 behind)

This current pace number and the difficulty's still going down to the point where even this snapshot is not accurate anymore, so I can only assume farms are still shutting down their BTC gear (the altcoins dump of late did not help either).

Can someone kindly explain to me what these bold numbers are referring to?

sure if we were at 0% diff or flat  we would be at 366 or 367 blocks

since we are -23% we are at 282 blocks about 84 or 85 blocks short.

since bitmain has the largest cloud ops in the world and they now have restricted power availability they have to choose the most profitable miner at watts .

the most profitable gear is not any sha256 know to exist.

so while the s19pro makes money it makes 33 to 35 usd for 3300 watts

there are pieces of gear that make 250 usd for 3300 watts.

if you are bitmain and you are a business you pick the gear that makes the most usd per watt.

so i care fully edited this to not say what gear makes 250 usd for 3300 watts.

but this is why btc diff dropped a lot.

1) a shortage of power in china due to coal
2) bitmain the worlds largest builder of asics choosing to use the gear that earns the most usd per watt
3) bitmain has made three huge cloud mining deals this year.

I get why some want the mining section to be for btc. Not alt coins.

But btc is not in a vacuum  so I am trying to create  a way to incorporate  satoshi's  idea of turning power  into why there are multiple

competing coins. All these coins compete the worlds available power.

The genii is out of the bottle. I am going to open a diff thread in alt coins rather then buck the system here.




link

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.56812967
legendary
Activity: 4088
Merit: 7701
'The right to privacy matters'
Spacer

I have been running difficulty threads for BTC in the BTC mining section.

I have had too many complaints and censorship that I include alt coins in the threads as explanations as to why BTC diff is down.  Rather  than fight against the idea of BTC maximalism I will post here in this thread.

I will not delete other than:

 fuck blow me bitch type posts
 I will kill you posts

All opinions are welcome.

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