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Topic: A new design suggestion: Pegged exchange rate of BTC - page 2. (Read 2344 times)

legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination


Because they can print RMB at will.

Expect to see that blow up in their faces in the next 5 to 10 years.

Same as FED printing USD, and that pegged exchange rate is not fixed, I remember it is 3.x in 80s, 8.x in 90s, now 6.x

A pegged system could be aimed by hedge funds. Soros crashed bank of england and some aisan countries, but he was defeated by the HongKong government when he played the same trick, because chinese government had much more USD reserve than he could leverage. As long as an economy scale is small, maintain price stability is difficult
kjj
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1026
Anyone trying to peg the BTC to anything will get pegged  Grin

To OP's point... have you ever researched what has happened to countries that peg their currency to the US dollar? It works for a while, then it gets really ugly really fast.

China has been pegging RMB to USD for decades, it still goes on

Because they can print RMB at will.

Expect to see that blow up in their faces in the next 5 to 10 years.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
the exchange price of a bitcoin. is defined by supply and demand.
it can therefor not be pegged to anything.
example:
you do make a fixed-price exchange. where one can buy 1btc for 10usd.
now if the price on another exchange goes to 13usd per btc.
people will put alot of usd into your exchange, and you will run dry of btc(and your peg is GONE)

sorry mate.

If everyone is honest merchants and the market is enough big, then maybe supply and demand will decide a reasonable price, but for a small currency like BTC, it will take only one hedge fund to push the price to 100+$ and cash out, finally short it to 1$ from there

In a pegged system, the exchange rate is always decided realtime by a basket currency/commodities, so basically all the exchange will have the same rate published.

Of course, if a hedge fund manager put 10 million dollar to buy as much BTC as possible, then exchange will have to provide that amount of BTC to him, since almost everyone is hoarding BTC, exchange simply could not find that much BTC that he can buy, then there will be a liquidity problem

So, for a pegged currency, the exchange should have enough reserve to damp the speculative behavior and keep the promised exchange rate, this role normally is carried out by a central bank

But anyway, with a pegged exchange rate, the worst result will only be liquidity problem, the exchange rate will always keep the same, this will in a large degree discourage the speculation
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
Anyone trying to peg the BTC to anything will get pegged  Grin

To OP's point... have you ever researched what has happened to countries that peg their currency to the US dollar? It works for a while, then it gets really ugly really fast.

China has been pegging RMB to USD for decades, it still goes on
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001
Anyone trying to peg the BTC to anything will get pegged  Grin

To OP's point... have you ever researched what has happened to countries that peg their currency to the US dollar? It works for a while, then it gets really ugly really fast.
legendary
Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
You are WRONG!
the exchange price of a bitcoin. is defined by supply and demand.
it can therefor not be pegged to anything.
example:
you do make a fixed-price exchange. where one can buy 1btc for 10usd.
now if the price on another exchange goes to 13usd per btc.
people will put alot of usd into your exchange, and you will run dry of btc(and your peg is GONE)

sorry mate.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
See this chart.

Chart taken from this article.  I don't agree with the conclusions necessarily, but it gives a good discussion of the exchange mechanism and demonstrates how sterilization works in the real world.

Can you spot the one critical feature in the chart that explains how PBC is able to hold a peg?  Do you understand how the lack of that feature will make it impossible for you (or anyone else) to maintain a peg?

Exchange rate is always need to be controlled, no matter a floated currency or a pegged currency. Bank of Japan just did an intervention yesterday

BTC is a distributed currency, and the exchange rate can also be distributed, that makes a composite exchange rate for BTC attractive





kjj
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1026
See this chart.

Chart taken from this article.  I don't agree with the conclusions necessarily, but it gives a good discussion of the exchange mechanism and demonstrates how sterilization works in the real world.

Can you spot the one critical feature in the chart that explains how PBC is able to hold a peg?  Do you understand how the lack of that feature will make it impossible for you (or anyone else) to maintain a peg?
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
Well, it might need to be designed to suit BTC nature, I haven't think a lot about this

Take China for example, their currency exchange rate is controlled by the central bank

If you want to buy some goods from a chinese merchant, you tell your bank that 100K USD is going to merchant A to buy some goods, then the bank will issue a Letter of Credit to merchant A. Merchant A will dispatch the goods and use the shipping order to get payment from a chinese bank designated in LC. After payment is done, your bank will receive the shipping order and you use that order to get your goods.

Merchant A get payment in RMB, not USD, since his chinese bank has already exchanged those USD to RMB with central bank. Therefore, central bank collect USD and paying out RMB to merchant A.

Same, if merchant A wants to import some USD products, the central bank has to exchange his RMB to USD before any purchase action, using a fixed exchange rate.






hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
How do you intend to peg the exchange rate of a bitcoin?
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
For countries with small economy scale and small amount of currency, they ususally use a USD pegged exchange rate to avoid currency value fluctuate wildly.

So, to be stable in the early stage of BTC, it can use a pegged exchange rate to a basket of world currency and commodities, for example considering such a combination:

USD 10%
EUR 10%
GBP 10%
CHF 10%
JPY 10%
Gold 10%
Crude Oil 10%
Copper 10%
Rice 10%
Cotton 10%

These combined elements will keep the overall exchange rate of BTC very stable, since most of the price movement in these elements will cancel each other
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