i think people are expecting too much from the halving which is still over a year away from now.
less supply mostly results in higher demand, but what if the demand at that time reaches a record low?
don't get excited too quickly. good reminder.
Topic: A noob question. - page 3. (Read 3515 times)
The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
As far as I can comprehend (because I am an economics noob) less supply = high price. That was at least what my teachers taught me, but what if less supply = less demand? Would the expected price still high or no? Sorry but I cannot really get it.
I don't time events like some any other market trader, but considering I am in a different environment, 72 weeks is indeed ages to count.
As far as the average Bitcoin user is concerned, I don't think this process has a lot to do with how they view Bitcoin or if they will buy or sell it. That said, it wouldn't make sense to think that less supply = less demand. Less supply will cause the market to rise not only because less supply + same demand = more difficult to obtain, but because people will see the rise it causes and want to get into Bitcoin. People will view Bitcoin as more successful the more expensive it gets, thus causing more attraction. That is, if the massive rise and falls and market volatility from time to time don't keep people away.
Last time there was little movement when halving happened. It looked like the movement took place in the months before. So that it was factored in by the date. Generally you are spot on that a decrease in supply leads to a relative increase in demand. But if demand dropped by exactly half then one would expect flat prices.
That sounds right, but if my memory is correct there was a huge rally relatively soon after that post-halving quiet time.
Usually mining reward decrease has no effect on the price.
Currently there are 3600 new coins every day, just in the last 24 hours bitcoin trade volume is above 150,000 coins, 3600 coins if immediately dumped by miners has no effect on price.
Currently there are 3600 new coins every day, just in the last 24 hours bitcoin trade volume is above 150,000 coins, 3600 coins if immediately dumped by miners has no effect on price.
Where did you get the BTC150k figure? From here I see the volume is about $2-7 million (~15k or 20k BTC) per day on most days, with exceptions.
Reducing the daily reward from BTC3,600 to BTC1,800 would definitely have an effect.
Of course that's just a factor as I said before.
Usually mining reward decrease has no effect on the price.
Currently there are 3600 new coins every day, just in the last 24 hours bitcoin trade volume is above 150,000 coins, 3600 coins if immediately dumped by miners has no effect on price.
Currently there are 3600 new coins every day, just in the last 24 hours bitcoin trade volume is above 150,000 coins, 3600 coins if immediately dumped by miners has no effect on price.
Yeah, near as in this time next year...so we get to wait.
It won't be the death to miners, it'll just require consolidation of the miners because only the operations that are scaled big enough will be able to make a profit.
And actually, why do all 21 Million coins have to be mined? They don't. Bitcoin can still survive with whatever coins exist and those that want to mine can spend their time and money doing so. Just like gold today.
It won't be the death to miners, it'll just require consolidation of the miners because only the operations that are scaled big enough will be able to make a profit.
And actually, why do all 21 Million coins have to be mined? They don't. Bitcoin can still survive with whatever coins exist and those that want to mine can spend their time and money doing so. Just like gold today.
if that scenario will ever happen, it mean bitcoin is dying, because no one is buying, and there is only mining going on
It will be a death knell for miners, unless the price is significantly higher than now.
It is good for the long term future of Bitcoin, as inflation will be immediately halved, making the current coins in circulation more valuable, but it is a known event, the market can price it in slowly over time, so no big change in price should be expected, in fact usually such events result in a move in the other direction as people buy the rumour and sell the fact.
It will benefit all the miners that choose to go long term. Those that are in for the quick buck will suffer undoubtedly. It is good for the long term future of Bitcoin, as inflation will be immediately halved, making the current coins in circulation more valuable, but it is a known event, the market can price it in slowly over time, so no big change in price should be expected, in fact usually such events result in a move in the other direction as people buy the rumour and sell the fact.
It will be a death knell for miners, unless the price is significantly higher than now.
It is good for the long term future of Bitcoin, as inflation will be immediately halved, making the current coins in circulation more valuable, but it is a known event, the market can price it in slowly over time, so no big change in price should be expected, in fact usually such events result in a move in the other direction as people buy the rumour and sell the fact.
It is good for the long term future of Bitcoin, as inflation will be immediately halved, making the current coins in circulation more valuable, but it is a known event, the market can price it in slowly over time, so no big change in price should be expected, in fact usually such events result in a move in the other direction as people buy the rumour and sell the fact.
The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
As far as I can comprehend (because I am an economics noob) less supply = high price. That was at least what my teachers taught me, but what if less supply = less demand? Would the expected price still high or no? Sorry but I cannot really get it.
Less supply = higher price.
Less demand = lower price.
That's easy with a single variable.
If both supply and demand change then you need to know which changed more.
For example if supply reduces 25% and demand reduces to half then the price will go down.
That did help. I'm slowly gaining some knowledge with this problem in my mind. I've been thinking about it for hours now and I'm quite shy to ask this.
Thanks for answering. The help is really appreciated. 
I think you might be struggling with it because you are basically trying to predict the future based on a few knowns today. Economic forces are not simple matters, and usually if you expect A to happen then B will happen. There's more to supply and demand than just "supply" and "demand", those two terms are very broad and encompass and number of different elements.
I completely agree. On an economic point of view, the terms "supply" and "demand" are somewhat very broad and complex--incomprehensible to the not-so economist-type of person, including myself.
The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
As far as I can comprehend (because I am an economics noob) less supply = high price. That was at least what my teachers taught me, but what if less supply = less demand? Would the expected price still high or no? Sorry but I cannot really get it.
Less supply = higher price.
Less demand = lower price.
That's easy with a single variable.
If both supply and demand change then you need to know which changed more.
For example if supply reduces 25% and demand reduces to half then the price will go down.
That did help. I'm slowly gaining some knowledge with this problem in my mind. I've been thinking about it for hours now and I'm quite shy to ask this.
Thanks for answering. The help is really appreciated. I think you might be struggling with it because you are basically trying to predict the future based on a few knowns today. Economic forces are not simple matters, and usually if you expect A to happen then B will happen. There's more to supply and demand than just "supply" and "demand", those two terms are very broad and encompass and number of different elements.
The halving will also have a ripple effect because if the reward is half and the price stays the same then the inefficient miners will go out of the market these miners are probably small and save the bit-coin. I think that it will be a net zero event maybe a small increase but the price will go up once bit coin gains more steam due to supply and demand.
The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
As far as I can comprehend (because I am an economics noob) less supply = high price. That was at least what my teachers taught me, but what if less supply = less demand? Would the expected price still high or no? Sorry but I cannot really get it.
Less supply = higher price.
Less demand = lower price.
That's easy with a single variable.
If both supply and demand change then you need to know which changed more.
For example if supply reduces 25% and demand reduces to half then the price will go down.
That did help. I'm slowly gaining some knowledge with this problem in my mind. I've been thinking about it for hours now and I'm quite shy to ask this.
Thanks for answering. The help is really appreciated. i dont care if the price will rise or not but we should definitely make a halving party 
!
!We really should have one!
i dont care if the price will rise or not but we should definitely make a halving party !
! The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
As far as I can comprehend (because I am an economics noob) less supply = high price. That was at least what my teachers taught me, but what if less supply = less demand? Would the expected price still high or no? Sorry but I cannot really get it.
Less supply = higher price.
Less demand = lower price.
That's easy with a single variable.
If both supply and demand change then you need to know which changed more.
For example if supply reduces 25% and demand reduces to half then the price will go down.
The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
As far as I can comprehend (because I am an economics noob) less supply = high price. That was at least what my teachers taught me, but what if less supply = less demand? Would the expected price still high or no? Sorry but I cannot really get it.
I don't time events like some any other market trader, but considering I am in a different environment, 72 weeks is indeed ages to count.
Last time there was little movement when halving happened. It looked like the movement took place in the months before. So that it was factored in by the date. Generally you are spot on that a decrease in supply leads to a relative increase in demand. But if demand dropped by exactly half then one would expect flat prices.
First of all, there's more than a year until halving.
Second, I've seen a few halving moments in Dogecoin life. A price jump was expected. And you know what happened? Nothing. Exactly nothing.
So the rule is.. that there's no rule. Not all miners dump everything. The buyers .. some days buy more, some days buy less. Not related to the dumps by the miners, more related to their needs and calculations.
The price.. follows all this.
Second, I've seen a few halving moments in Dogecoin life. A price jump was expected. And you know what happened? Nothing. Exactly nothing.
So the rule is.. that there's no rule. Not all miners dump everything. The buyers .. some days buy more, some days buy less. Not related to the dumps by the miners, more related to their needs and calculations.
The price.. follows all this.
So does that mean that the price is heavily dependent on the miners and buyers side, and the supply only affects little of the movement in price?
First of all, there's more than a year until halving.
Second, I've seen a few halving moments in Dogecoin life. A price jump was expected. And you know what happened? Nothing. Exactly nothing.
So the rule is.. that there's no rule. Not all miners dump everything. The buyers .. some days buy more, some days buy less. Not related to the dumps by the miners, more related to their needs and calculations.
The price.. follows all this.
Second, I've seen a few halving moments in Dogecoin life. A price jump was expected. And you know what happened? Nothing. Exactly nothing.
So the rule is.. that there's no rule. Not all miners dump everything. The buyers .. some days buy more, some days buy less. Not related to the dumps by the miners, more related to their needs and calculations.
The price.. follows all this.
The halving is near, and as many of us know, it will slow the amount of coins "minted" each time the miners find a block. I understand the basic of supply and demand, and I also know that the lesser the supply is, the higher the price. But what if there is a less supply but also less demand on the other side? Would the price still be high as expected? Or will it be low because apparently there are no buyers on the other side of the market?
Confused here. Please help.
Confused here. Please help.
The halving of the reward is only one factor. Of course if the demand reduces more than the supply then the price will go down.
But the halving means a price increase is more likely (just likely).
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