Topic: A possibility in China (Read 3743 times)

I'm saying that the big boys probably will control a share of Bitcoin, but that for them to control the lion-share of Bitcoin, HODLers need to panic sell. And it seems to me that as the Bitcoin community grows, the amount of true HODLers are growing. Just look at the polls of "at which price would you sell?". The more people HODL through pumps and dumps, the more they are going to be committed to HODLing. Sure as price goes up people might want to realize some of their dreams, like buying a house, but a true HODLer would only do that when the amount of Bitcoin they would have to liquidate is a small fraction the Bitcoin they HODL. I'm sure there is a substantial amount of Bitcoin in the hands of such people. But, this is just an impression and it remains to be seen what happens.

As for whether Bitcoin will be different, I think that the earlier adopters have a healthier foundation and a more liberal view of their wealth than many of the Big Boys. Again, this is just an impression that I have. The moral of the story is that if you want the current big boys to continue always winning, then sell your Bitcoin. Otherwise, HODL!

1) When I speak of the financial establishment, I am not talking of salary slaves who actually work in the banks, doing lots of boring stuff.

2) If the Big Boys end up controlling the lion-share of Bitcoin, how is that any different from banksters cornering the gold market, or to use a recent historical example, how is it any different from the USA cornering the gold market after WW2, forcing the whole world to accept the dollar standard (cos they had all the gold)?

3) The Big Boys Always Win!

This is clearly not true as there are several undeniable big boys that have burned and crashed. Don't you remember the credit crunch that caused several banks to go down only to be gobbled up by governments?

Sometimes big boys lose too, and when you are sufficiently big, maybe hubris will bring you down.

Anyway, who is to say that some of the early mining geeks will not become big boys themselves?


Rubbish. The existence of the blockchain is bound to shrink the finance industry immensely because there will be less use for the army of people. Analysts will probably be needed, but alot fewer as there will be less profits on which to divide them.

As for the idea of Bitcoin being an anarchistic force is officially dead? What planet are you living on? To remove the means of controlling the money supply from central bankers is a great formal and practical step towards less government.

Many big boys are for sure moving in to Bitcoin but they will be one party, there are for sure plenty of early and not-so-early adopters who have a large stake when you accumulate their total as a percentage of Bitcoin. The only things that could allow the big boys to take over that share is if someone doesn't fucking HODL!

Get a grip. You speak of the "forces at work in China": these are the exactly same forces at work inside you and everybody else thinking of buying Bitcoin. And Bitcoin went up and down before China.

From now on I predict news from China will have less and less effect.

The Swiss government acknowledging Bitcoin as a currency they will work with; the American government drafting new legislation to set out a long term future for Bitcoin; the European Union banning every European from depositing fiat in their exchange accounts: all these statements have the power to change things immensely. Stop obsessing with the Chinese.

I have large buy in tranches between $100 - $230.

This may seem crazy to most people, but so would have $380 just 14 days ago.

In the much more palatable scenario of Bitcoin revisiting $400 ish, and then shooting back up again, I will also be ready to accept this point as a good buy in opportunity.

These are just my bets at this point in time and my conspiracy theories regarding China or Big Boy Bankers had no influence in me forming them........all that stuff is just intellectual exercises that I find both interesting and plausible.....

.....reality of course is going to be way more complex than all that and will defy any attempts to describe it, short or long. But this is always the case.

Mat,

That all may be true but what is the point of considering such scenarios and what can you do about it? I'm not sure there is an answer, in which case it's really a pointless exercise that really only serves to spread fear and uncertainty.

My default position is to mistrust all exchanges and to expect that there are a shit load of people out there who want to manipulate Bitcoin for their own personal gain.

After that, I don't see any point in guessing what is going on behind closed doors. If you believe the manipulation is so great then I guess it's not the time to be investing but the problem is that it's impossible to know when the next manipulation will occur. Ultimately I believe the number of people wanting the price to go UP vastly outnumber the number that want it to go down and that the long term trend will continue to rise.

Yes, this is all very clear to me. Perhaps Bitcoin is not for the little man in China, but the Big Boys will certainly want in on the action, especially if they think that they see what way the wind is blowing and the think the wind is blowing in the same direction that I think it is blowing in.

Because of my strong interest in monetary politics and history, I clicked on to Bitcoin very early on, sometime in late 2010. I was a gold bug back then so wasn't convinced of its viability and when I downloaded the client to start mining on my PC it all seemed a bit shit (12 hours to mine a Bitcoin on my CPU?, FK that, I am not leaving my PC on 12 hours for that). Also, back then I never knew about Silk Road, so it seemed like nothing but a cool idea, that was probably never going to work just like how loads of other novel ideas 'never seem to take on'.

Even as my sense of Bitcoin's potential grew, and it began to take a place in my anarchist fantasies and theories for the future, had someone shown me a glimpse of Bitcoin today, just a couple of years down the line, it would have been impossible for me to believe.

With that in mind, now that Bitcoin has made its mark and has established itself and its uses, just think about the sort of place that Bitcoin will take in the fantasies of guys who live and breathe high finance. There are going to be some pretty big hitters out there who are going to want in on this shit. Some of them are going to be Chinese, some of them are going to be Chinese bankers with a huge level of influence within the Chinese political system. And if you were to suspend your own beliefs and accept my hypothesis for a minute or two, you would have to admit that China has played a blinder in ramping Bitcoin into stratosphere, bring large amounts of coin into their economic system (BTC is in China if majority of holders need to cash out in CNY), and then using the influence of the Chinese market to send Bitcoin into basement across the globe.

Furthermore, if there is any truth in my hypothesis, then you would have to imagine that Bitcoin is going to be beaten down much lower yet.


You may be right.

A goldbug in 1999 may also have been right in his belief that due to rapid credit expansion, that price of gold was going to go through roof as financial institutions had and increased need to hedge against inflation. Then Gordon Brown could have come along and pronounced " I am a big fkn one eyed paedo retard, and I am selling half of the UK's gold reserves". The goldbug could have thought, "Idiot, who cares about Gordon Brown?". And the long run, he would have been right.

In the short-run however, Gordon Brown's announcement and the subsequent sale of 400 tonnes of gold, still would have given the goldbug a 50% haircut on any gold he may have been holding in the short-medium term. The goldbug would have been both right, and wrong, and certainly out of pocket.

As others have mentioned, the government could also just print 100 Billion Yuan tomorrow and buy out the currency.  The potential gain in this entire fiasco is POCKET CHANGE to the world's second largest economy.

Why would the government ever want Bitcoin to be legal in China?  They have extreme capital controls for a reason.  What incentive do they have to allow people to transact with Bitcoin, thereby circumventing all the rules they went and set up?

Let me give you an example.  If you went to China tomorrow, and wanted to convert your USD cash to RMB, you would have to go to a state-owned bank.  At the bank, the teller would ask for your passport, make you fill out a form with all your personal information, and then they'd let you exchange... $500.  All that, to exchange a maximum of $500 to RMB.  You could go back tomorrow and do the exact same thing.  $500 per day.

Now, imagine you can use Bitcoin.  You buy Bitcoin at home for $50,000 USD.  You go to China.  You put your Bitcoin on a Chinese exchange, create a Chinese bank account (takes about same amount of time as converting $500 USD).  Maybe you already had a Chinese bank account.  Now you sell your Bitcoin on the exchange, and pull it to your bank.  It works.  It's instant.  You've completely bypassed the exchange limit (by a factor of 100), without the government knowing at all.

Zero tax is earned in this process by the government, and you incur almost zero loss in the entire process.

So you can see how Bitcoin undermines the country's capital controls.  The same situation works in reverse as well.  You can transfer RMB -> BTC then BTC -> USD.  Once again, China has no idea this wealth has left the country.

Personally I'm not too concerned about China. It's a big market for bitcoin but it's not the only market, and all the information I've read suggests that China is predominantly a speculative market which isn't very helpful at all. I think people put way too much emphasis on what they are doing. In the end they may force the price up and force it down but in real terms the value of bitcoin is trending up. And really, given how controlling China are, why does anyone give a shit what they do anyway? I said a while ago they would be the first country to block it, and it looks like that may end up being true. The less we concern ourselves with China the better.

Bitcoin is global and we haven't yet had a really good bit of news to throw us into a REAL gold rush. There is still lots of potential progress in the U.S. The signs so far are quietly positive, if we see some legislation over there we will see a big rush as businesses all seek to get a slice of the market, that has the potential to push BTC well above what China has been capable of doing so far.

Perhaps, but if government 'heavies' started leaning on BTC China, I would suggest that they would bend any which way was required of them.

Despite all indicators pointing towards further downtime, I believe that Bitcoin is going to grow big, with a market cap several order of magnitude than it currently is. If this is to be the case, then it will be another market or financial product that the Big Boys are going to want to control, but to control the market, they need to enter the market. The Big Boys do not enter the market at all time highs, they enter at unfathomable lows. This is how the world works. Their are forces at work in China that one way or the other, have served to ramp the sh1t out of Bitcoin, and then bring it crashing to the ground all across the globe. Lets face it, the Chinese government could send Bitcoin up to $2000, or down to $200 tomorrow on the strength of a single statement.

For the time being, they are the market makers and one has to wonder what their motives might be, or what the motives are of certain influential individuals with the Chinese hierarchy.

I would have to agree with R2Pleasent. I feel that for the owners of BTC China there is very little to be gained by playing games like this with their customers. In the short term yes, maybe, but in the long term, surely the confidence of the Chinese in the exchange is paramount? Unless of course they felt BTC in China did not have a future and so were trying to maximize their profits now before the whole thing goes to shit.

Either way, I think it's a pointless exercise. All markets are open to manipulation from inside and out and dwelling on it won't make you feel any better. What we need is more exchanges to reduce the likelihood of one single exchange crashing the market.

No.

He is describing typical mobster tactics.

The world is run by gangsters, waging wars to protect their rackets, and always looking to muscle into new ones. The Chinese are in the position not just to crash their own Bitcoin market, but the global bitcoin market. Who says that the Chinese Big Boys won't be buying up firesale priced coin on markets the world over? Afterall, they have enough 'worthelss' dollars burning big fkn holes in theirs pockets that they simply don't know what to do with.

You are the retard.

Ok, probably I am bit biased, I don't think China is bitcoin avoider ... It just spread faster than they thought. In my point of view its a positive sign to bitcoin, its shows its popularity.

But if you read the book "Electronic Exchanges: The Global Transformation from Pits to Bits - Michael Gorham" you can get some clues about their culture ...

in the early 1990s in China, it was much easier to connect a tradematching  system  to  a  bunch  of  computers  in  one  room  than  to computers spread throughout a building, a city, or a country. The Internet had not really come to China yet.
Both the exchange and the government liked having all the traders in a single room.  Since  futures—and  for  that  matter,  markets  generally—were  new  to China, the exchanges wanted something visual that they could show visitors. This was especially true for potential customers such as grain merchants and others involved in the cash commodity markets. And, since government support was crucial for these new creations, a floor made it much easier to explain to government officials what was going on. Trading floors have always been more
interesting than PowerPoint slides. Of course, the government liked having all the traders in one place so it could keep an eye on them. Finally, for purposes of general promotion, there is nothing like a trading floor for the media to take photos of and for the general public to visit, just as they would the Forbidden City, the Great Wall, or the Shaolin Temple.  


But in my point of view ... I do agree to Mr Andreas Antonopoulos


2 decades ago ou could not send a message from one continent to another, such as popular Internet. There wasn't a debate among millions of people, as such as in social networks. There was no consensus, etc just like there is in Bitcoin. Hierarchical systems solve problems of the 17th century that no longer exist.

Man we live in a "moneyball statistic analisys" world ...

Sorry today is Friday .. and I already got my whiskey shot but don't worry .. I am hodler to the bones  ...

You're probably right but as Bitcoin will get much bigger we cannot ignore this possibility.

I don't want to look paranoid but when money is involved people are ready to do anything.

No. It is communist by name. Not disputing that.

But the context in which the question came up (is China communist or not?) was one where the actual *meaning* of "communist" mattered. clownposterwhosenameiforgot clearly argued from the perspective of a China acting in a certain way because it is run by a party that adheres to 'communism' in either the classical Marxist sense, or perhaps in the (less classical, but still historical ) Soviet sense.

And Chinese politics, especially their economical politics, is almost *nothing* like Marxist or Soviet communism.

That's why it's not "just semantics".

+1. He got it. This is not about there being no manipulation (in China, or anywhere else). I'm sure there is, more often than I can imagine.

This is about the notion that there was some grand concerted effort to pump & dump BTC and profit from it, reaching into the highest levels of Chinese politics, involving "direct orders" to state TV, etc.

That's what I called bullshit. Because, among other reasons, BTC simply isn't important enough for that kind of play yet.

BTCChina was an extremely rapidly-growing startup, whose potential value was in the 10-100 billion dollar range in a Bitcoin-friendly China.  It would be an extremely unwise business decision to fabricate a ban on payment processors.  They make enough money each day just on the 1% withdrawal to RMB fee they have on their site (and now 0.3% trade fees).  There is absolutely no reason for them to bother risking their reputation and trust in the Chinese Bitcoin system.

This guy would have been the Zuckerberg of China if his exchange had governmental immunity.

If you truly believe the story you are saying, you are actually retarded.

I see it like this....
BTCChina announces payment processors are being restricted.
People panic and dump.
No fiat can get onto the exchange...except of course those running the exchange itself and their friends (big players).
All the dumped coins bought up (big players) and a short time later, to everyones relief, a 'new' payment processor is implemented.

It is a complex world yet for every complex issue there is a simple answer, which is always wrong. Although the truth is always hidden, patterns and tendencies certainly do emerge that can't be ignored.

Your suggestion is perhaps more likely than mine given the present day scale of Bitcoin in the grander scheme of things but China has certainly acted just like a group of dodgy businessmen pumping and dumping a penny stock, whether that as a result of a bungling bureaucratic government, of officials seeking to line their own pockets, or indeed of a broader initiative of the Chines establishment to take a controlling stake of something that just might grow into an economic monster.

Whatever the case is, right now the Chinese government have Bitcoin by the balls.

It is a communist state in the meaningful sense that it is run by the Chinese Communist Party according to socialism with Chinese characteristics. 

Any deeper analysis is just semantics.