Topic: A second bubble? (Read 5463 times)

Beer time!
FTFY

This will be in my next "proudhon being wrong" quote package

External flows entering Bitcoin from other currencies have remained consistent. None of the moves since the USD$5.00 level have been excessive on a weekly basis, and each time so far there has been sufficient time to stabilize. Nothing is overtly suggestive of a major correction.

No problem.

I'm doing both - working a position from day to day and a longer-term basis at a substantially under-par price. I'm not 'investing' in the sense of a losing trade turning into a longer-term 'hold-it-until-its-profitable' kind of trade. Early in my non-bitcoin trading career I've made that mistake, believe me.

I recommend ditching losing positions as soon as possible. Live to trade another day...

Interesting how trading suddenly becomes investing.

haha.
(Don't mind me just pulling your leg a little)

How tiresome.

Go ahead and keep looking for 'bubbles', I'll keep on investing for my financial freedom and the future of finance.

Look again at my post:
In case you are not familiar with this abbreviation: "OP" refers to Original Post(er). My last comment was on the bubble mentioned in the OP. The OP asks, whether we are in a bubble right now. My answer to that is:

Everything in my post before that relates to the first bubble of July 2011.

Overdue.  This thing needs to stop for a few weeks.

Just a temporary setback  

The volume of the latest upspike was way too high for this to be it.
On the other hand bitcoin markets have behaved contrary to high volume moves in the past...

Bear time?

When reading those old posts I came to the conclusion that half the people were arguing whether bitcoin itself is a bubble, and the other half arguing about whether bitcoin was currently in a bubble.  If you don't understand this distinction, a lot of smart people's posts end up sounding idiotic. 

I think its pretty obvious now to all who lived through the last 15 years (tech, housing bubbles) that there WAS a bubble in bitcoin.   But even if the price of a bitcoin eventually goes to zero its pretty clear at this point that you can't conclude that bitcoin-as-a-whole was a "bubble" -- it would merely be a failure.   But perhaps this terminology distinction won't matter to all of us holding onto coins...

Hopefully this is an infinite loop

Signs of a bubble, but not a bubble? Okay, thanks for agreeing with me - in a rather roundabout way, lol.


Hope that cleared some things up for you... (but probably not, lol) Like how you can contradict yourself and cover all the bases. Do you work for CNBC?

So far, these price rises have not entered danger zones on a weekly basis. This week's danger zone is above ~$8.50 with an immediate sell over $10.

Lol, you proved it was not a bubble? Interesting. I think you rather came to the conclusion that it was not (I think I read your thread the other month). IMHO it was a bubble indeed showing all typical signs of a bubble, then it burst, not as abruptly as a bubble would burst with no value in its underlying security but it still did. Have a read through something on the "Gartner hype cycle",
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
you will discover, that what we have seen last June was a typical hype resulting in a correction of exaggerated expectations. Because there is intrinsic value in bitcoin the bubble burst didnt end its live, like with any fad, but only expressed those expectations and the decrease to some more realistic levels, matching yield of the technology in its current state.

@ OP: No bubble yet, but working on it

Except DXY has been on the rise, so while supply might be expanding purcashing power is going up.  Nobody wants to take out debt and that's the only way to get access to that new money.

There's also the possibility that the rise is partially caused by the dollar inflating from the Federal Reserve's balance-sheet activities. M2 supply is up $43 billion from last week. Boggles my mind the numbers that get thrown around when dollar debt/expansion is concerned.

If you could graph BTC priced in dollars minus inflation - maybe its just a stable plateau after all. I leave that to the number crunchers here.

So far, no classical bubble indicators. The volume didn't rise all that much, there's little hype, and the fundamental reasons for a rise might just be there.

That last point is hard to judge. But there is currently a need for both international transactions and an inflation-free asset to store value. Given its potential and its currently low market cap, Bitcoin might provide both.

So while I'm not shouting "RALLY RALLY UP TO 8," I also don't see reason to call 7 a bubble. Who can estimate Bitcoin value to such precision anyway?

It isn't a bubble. I proved that last year in my analysis. If it had been one, we wouldn't be trading at 7, it would be near zero with the overall hashing capacity declining rapidly.

Now, this doesn't mean we can't have large price swings - just don't mistake volatility for a 'bubble', because you'd be using the wrong term. Exponential blow-off tops occur in different markets, and I'm sure we haven't seen the last of those here.

Overall, I expect bitcoin to advance and persist.

I have gotten most of my circle into bitcoins solely for gambling. Gambling needs another push, but I have not seen any slide backs in adopters.

The porn market is just in its infancy right now, way to many at home amateurs (sorry girls) but it is trending towards higher quality models as of late.

Drugs..... I think Silk Road has this in done and done, nothing to see here.

Awesome let me know so I can join he he he

Thats actually a good idea.  I might try to make it happen.  My friend plays with a bunch of guys every week. (poker that is)  She brought up bitcoin and they didn't have good things to say about it.  (mostly the same ignorant stuff you hear from people who know nothing about it). 
Working on it though

Interesting. Real life poker games with bitcoins.

"World Series of Poker....with bitcoins!"

You are right.  I think either one of these three would suffice.  It seems gambling is the main contender these days.  I offer to sell bitcoins on craigslist and throw in the texas holdem aspect.  Just started today we'll see what happens.   I personally have gotten 3 people into playing texas holdem on seals with clubs who really weren't into bitcoin but are really into poker.  Now they want to buy bitcoins.

icbit.se

Hey!  It's shorting.  Next excuse....

To make a high stable price bitcoin needs a tripod of DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING to stand on.
Porn needs some more attention, Drugs seems to be a run away success (SR) and Gambling is certainly taking off.

You would be surprised how many speculators and investors don't know this obvious information.  They see an exponential price rise and their only conclusion is to jump on board quick as it's going even higher. 

Is $7+ a bubble?  Probably not, but it's the point where we saw a previous sell off all the way back to the mid $4 range.  I'm a bit surprised we're still sitting well over $6 however, as I thought we'd be back to the low $5 range by now after the hype cycle surrounding Greece died down.  Still, watching my bitcoin fortune grow by doing nothing is very pleasing.

Meh, I'm no good at trading BTC/USD, so I guess the rally is meaningless to me. I'll just keep calmly dollar-cost averaging into BTC over time.

Well, the exchange rate has risen enough for Bruce to suddenly find Bitcoin interesting again. A pretty strong indicator in my opinion...

I find it hard to credit few understood the risks of hacking. Looking back, I distinctly remember thinking we'll see significant losses to theft due to poor security, and the mt. gox debacle was the first big confirmation of that hunch. I'm not that smart, so anyone seriously interested in Bitcoin must have anticipated hacking. I think it's more that we didn't know what, exactly, we should defend against, and that most people aren't that savvy at computer security. Even if you know you should guard against burglars, it doesn't do much good if you don't understand they can break a window instead of coming through the front door...

You're right, though, that hacks are probably priced in now. They will keep happening, but the market's been innoculated against it. On the other hand, the gox order book has been very peculiar lately, what with the walls on both buy and sell sides boxing the price into a rather narrow range. Whether it's one player or a few... Gox knows.

I think the only thing that could stop the escalation in the price would be an outside intervention of the bitcoin network, last year were theft and hackers, maybe this year some government wants to attack against bitcoin  that will be something new and history has shown that people get scared easily 

LOL are you comparing me to Bruce Wagner? Hopefully I've demonstrated that I am not someone of "0 substance." People who know me, trust me, and know that I don't make vapid claims. I'm involved in building many of the things to which I'm referring, and it's not yet time to announce them, so I don't. 

Then why bring it up in the first place? Are we playing Bruce Wagner again, all hype, 0 substance, $100 by end of the month?

I mean, a bear could do the same thing and tell you he knows some secret fundamental that will make Bitcoins go back to 6 cents.

Nope

Being some time on this forum taught me one thing. Such amount optimism always ends in one way. Big selloff. Lets see if history will repeat itself.

This is a really good point, I agree.

Calling it a bubble is a bit premature.

I think a breakout above $7.22 is a big deal, if it happens; it means that for the first time since the crash, the peaks of market sentiment are getting higher. It means we'll have left the shadow of June 2011.

To me, this is the #1 risk factor of this being a bubble and not real growth. As with the highs of last year, there's no capacity for short positions backed by fiat; no matter how unrealistically high a person thinks $7.20 is as a price for 1BTC, they can't put their money where their mouth is unless they're already holding the asset in which they have no faith. Even a functional futures market would be enough to assuage some of my worries here, but alas.

Every bubble that doesn't burst is a good bubble, I hope this one is elastic enough 

+100

It may be over-valued for its present utility, but not by all that much, but the fundamentals are unlike anything else available

Or... the 2011 bubble was never a bubble, just the kind of drop in price you would expect as a consequence of hacks and theft. A bubble presupposes that Bitcoin was fundamentally overpriced. I don't think it was then, and I don't think it is now. If it lives up to one fraction of its potential, Bitcoin is still ridiculously undervalued.

Can you please eleborate on those fundamentals and certain developments in bitcoinworld.
It would be good to know too

+1

I predict a price around $10-$20 by end of the year. This is not because the price "broke through" $7 just now, but because I know of certain developments in bitcoinworld that support such a price (and the above price target does not include speculative froth, but simply a reasonable market price given the fundamentals).

Let's also remember that any price increase anywhere below $32, if a bubble, is less of a bubble than we had last year, for the economy is far stronger now than it was a year ago. In other words, if we shoot up to $25, it might be a bubble, but it's a far smaller bubble than we had prior. The fundamentals are far more supportive of such a price now than prior.

couldnt of said it better myself.
the fact is the scalability issue will be solved, because it can.

anyone remember how lame Linux was back in 1995?
why did some people get so excited about it?

remember bitcoin is only on year 3. it take 10 years for a new tech to really function properly.

you have any idea how many people think bitcoin can be hacked and anyone can make "free money" with it by selling your freely made bitcoin to the "suckers".... some people need years of bashing over the head b4 they understand.

I think it's also worth not forgetting that there isn't an easy way to short anymore.  I expect that when shorting makes it's way back into the system the price will take a pretty big hit.

your the one being short sighted, all you can see is the FACT that bitcoin cannot go over 10$ because the demand simply isn't their

if you look down the road, you see high demand for alternative currency, bitcoin being the best one with a highly developed economy. if fiat fails gold  will rise up, but bitcoin will take over  

I think we could have a pop if something scares everybody off from Bitcoin again, but that's a big if.

Last year, few realized that bitcoins could be stolen in hacks.  That freaked a lot of people out.  This year, everyone knows that they can be stolen and hacked, and that they can also be protected.  Someone gets hacked, and the market correctly says ho-hum, since it understands that the risk of hacking can be mitigated with cold wallets, and correctly realizes that any successful theft probably had much to do with mismanaging wallets.

I see MtGox as the biggest factor in Bitcoin's short-term future.  I sincerely hope nothing bad happens to MtGox, or if something does, that MtGox's competition will be advanced far enough that it won't matter.  Same with Silk Road.  Suppose there was a successful bust of the Silk Road admin(s) and no competing market to take its place - that might precipitate a big blow to the market as well.

On the flip side, if any client developers successfully pull off a working client that allows a full citizen node to function on a partial block chain (either via pruning or meta-chain or meta-tree or whatever), that will be a big plus for the market, because those who correctly point out that Bitcoin is only "so" scalable, will have to re-evaluate just how scalable it is with such a feature.  They'll still be right about it not being infinitely scalable, but they'll have seen a breakthrough to the next serious iteration in scalability and realize that we're still a long way away from insurmountable limits.

If that happens adamstgBit, I'll give you 10 bitcoins, just for me being so profoundly short sighted and wrong.  Free of charge.

hold your lol's for next years, when you sold off all your bitcoins and the price keeps going up but you dont care cuz your busy buying a new house 

Sorry...

12 usd/btc next month if we breakout 7.25 .
And their is no bubbles in bitcoin price.

yes, breaking 7 was significant. It a sign that points up, But I predict their will be a short sell off period above 8$, which will slowly bring us back down to 6.50ish, after that the 2011 high will the next target  and of course we will dramatically over shoot into the 100's

when The Ellet, and bitcoincard become a reality its only a matter of time for bubble #2 to form. actuly the bubble will porble apear at the same time or a few weeks b4 it release. depending on how successful these devices are, the bubble will either pop or we'll see  another 10,000% increase in price, a bubble fallowed by another BIGGER bubble,

I expect the price to be > $40 31.12.2013 without being a bubble.

Is it just me, or is the recent breakout above $7 a sign that we may be making new all time highs next year? Any ideas would be greatly appreciated, thanks.