As an example 157i5gK7iN4bNAN39Ahuoiq6Tx5TaQukTE is owned by Hal, who has publicly confirmed that he still has access to the private key. Last substantial transaction, June 2011.
The reality is we just don't know for sure how many lost coins are out there.
Topic: A simple definition of "lost" coins - page 2. (Read 3671 times)
Do you agree with this reasoning? I'm not saying it's a perfect definition, but it should be reasonably accurate and with very little risk of overestimating lost coins. It is also easy to prove me wrong. If you control any of the above addresses, just spend a satoshi from them. That will be more convincing than any argument, plus you will remain anonymous!
I would say that most of the lost coins are the ones that were mined when Bitcoins were still seen as funny money, before they were $1 each.
Using this data that was at the beginning of 2011.
So see what total you get if you only count addresses that have had no incoming/outgoing transactions since 2010.
Given that all my holdings met that criteria until yesterday, I would have to disagree.
Really? BTW I forgot to add, "address received most of its coins before July 2011."
Edited now.
Most (90+%) of my coins fall into that category,
- mined/received in 2010/2011
- zero outgoing transactions
- zero incoming transactions
I didn't care much about "the great market crash" and didn't sell a single coin at that time, as I mentioned somewhere else, it was $1 (or below), went up to $30 and then "crashed" to $2, so it was still twice as much as before, no reason to panic-sell.
I'm in for the long term, not to get freaky when some bubbles pop.
I would be willing to bet that there are a few individuals out there that probably have a crapload of bitcoins, who are also steady hands and don't have a need / desire / interest in crashing the market... especially if these coins are deemed savings rather than winnings.
Imagine Satoshi has a million bitcoins, which I assume is entirely possible. If you're Satoshi and could clear the orderbook with 100,000 of them, and have 900,000 sitting in offline wallets, regardless of your plans or greed, those 900,000 won't get touched because there's no need to touch them other than to stupidly throw them away to slippage.
A long time ago in early 2011 I griped about how early adopters must have a ton of bitcoins and are going to wreak havoc on us all. If that still is the case, I'm worried much less, as they've shown themselves to be steady hands, and no matter when they liquidate, they'll probably do it slowly, and at a time where the market is able and willing and interested in absorbing more circulating bitcoins. Now that I've been doing bitcoins this long, I'm arguably an early adopter. I have a small well-secured stash (nothing like any of these addresses though!) and I don't care what happens. I will hold them to the moon or to the ground just for the pride of having participated in something so revolutionary, but even then, they're savings to me. If over time they become something big, well that'll be great.
So, anyway though, I'm not counting on those bitcoins being lost. Kudos to whoever's got em. They'll move, eventually, I think, and responsibly, I hope.
Imagine Satoshi has a million bitcoins, which I assume is entirely possible. If you're Satoshi and could clear the orderbook with 100,000 of them, and have 900,000 sitting in offline wallets, regardless of your plans or greed, those 900,000 won't get touched because there's no need to touch them other than to stupidly throw them away to slippage.
A long time ago in early 2011 I griped about how early adopters must have a ton of bitcoins and are going to wreak havoc on us all. If that still is the case, I'm worried much less, as they've shown themselves to be steady hands, and no matter when they liquidate, they'll probably do it slowly, and at a time where the market is able and willing and interested in absorbing more circulating bitcoins. Now that I've been doing bitcoins this long, I'm arguably an early adopter. I have a small well-secured stash (nothing like any of these addresses though!) and I don't care what happens. I will hold them to the moon or to the ground just for the pride of having participated in something so revolutionary, but even then, they're savings to me. If over time they become something big, well that'll be great.
So, anyway though, I'm not counting on those bitcoins being lost. Kudos to whoever's got em. They'll move, eventually, I think, and responsibly, I hope.
I agree with giszmo.
During the crash, the smart money was buying, not selling.
I sure as hell didn't sell, and I'm certainly not the smart money!
During the crash, the smart money was buying, not selling.
I sure as hell didn't sell, and I'm certainly not the smart money!
I solo-mined a block in June 2011 and didn't move it until last week when I moved it to a different wallet. Shitty guess I would say. The fed mined their millions not to crash the market further when a bubble bursts but to prepare for a post-dollar age.
Actually I never lost faith in Bitcoin going far up and beyond of its history record, so low rates were times for buying, not selling. Any equally bullish person would just not touch their old coins.
Actually I never lost faith in Bitcoin going far up and beyond of its history record, so low rates were times for buying, not selling. Any equally bullish person would just not touch their old coins.
I'd disargee.
Furthermore, your suggested method of proving ownership is faulty as well.
Many of these may be "paper" wallets or "brain" wallets using addresses whose private key has never been used on a computer connected to the network.
To send a Satoshi, the private key would have to be imported and used to sign the transaction, and the public key would be made known reducing the security of the cold storage.
To regain the original security, the owner would have to start over creating a whole new offline cold storage. More hassle than anyone will want to go to just to prove you wrong.
Furthermore, your suggested method of proving ownership is faulty as well.
Many of these may be "paper" wallets or "brain" wallets using addresses whose private key has never been used on a computer connected to the network.
To send a Satoshi, the private key would have to be imported and used to sign the transaction, and the public key would be made known reducing the security of the cold storage.
To regain the original security, the owner would have to start over creating a whole new offline cold storage. More hassle than anyone will want to go to just to prove you wrong.
Given that all my holdings met that criteria until yesterday, I would have to disagree.
Really? BTW I forgot to add, "address received most of its coins before July 2011."
Edited now.
Given that all my holdings met that criteria until yesterday, I would have to disagree.
I may be wrong, but I believe the following rule allows identification of lost coins with pretty high confidence.
Any address with 10,000+ BTC that was existing before July 2011, has had zero outgoing transactions since then, and has received less than 5 coins since then.
Q: Why does this formula manage to distinguish lost coins from coins in cold storage? And why July 2011?
A: That's the time of the great market crash and start of the plunge to near zero. Any large holders would have surely sold at that time or in the following weeks.
Applying this rule, we find that a LOT of the richest addresses are actually lost forever (hopefully this list doesn't have any mistakes):
79957.042 1FeexV6bAHb8ybZjqQMjJrcCrHGW9sb6uF
50000.041 1P3S1grZYmcqYDuaEDVDYobJ5Fx85E9fE9
50000.041 1DEpjpftLbsGiCJvJDp2F2quVRnymV8U5Q
40000.041 1cXNTyXj4xPGopfYZNY5xfSM1EPJJvBZV
40000.041 12HddUDLhRP2F8JjpKYeKaDxxt5wUvx5nq
40000.041 16Ls6azc76ixc9Ny7AB5ZPPq6oiEL9XwXy
38000.041 18Hsgq92AUB1PYLU6MUMQXiwdebaDRo9oQ
31000.041 12ib7dApVFvg82TXKycWBNpN8kFyiAN1dr
28150.041 12tkqA9xSoowkzoERHMWNKsTey55YEBqkv
23249.041 12fZ2HxkLjG9zn1u44XYsFFYKHM4A2zCea
13050.000 1KX8EPDcziwbGaC7oDHDuKE9SfLWMmmbZy
12950.000 1MHdm5XZMrfoZFoUktEaGhYevmdiXoc4x4
12800.000 1B1wPLyrJ831sg1D8hnZLBG7SejXbqMMrH
10770.515 1F34duy2eeMz5mSrvFepVzy7Y1rBsnAyWC
10689.034 1FpqQnKQCgDkJFMC94JL8FpRyHTZ3uRVZ1
10009.251 1f1miYFQWTzdLiCBxtHHnNiW7WAWPUccr
10000.000 18k9tin39LKegFzHe8rxSgvJXDpuMriGJq
10000.000 1JtpgqCf3SSeCeYWEDJjkfYFH7Ruhy4Vp1
10000.000 1DJSiWg6Ci6DLmxZFjVNBKn9CcahLFx5gS
10000.000 1Du2jAQsBQnkkVZkN4oqC46tS78k7WMkVq
10000.000 1CPaziTqeEixPoSFtJxu74uDGbpEAotZom
10000.000 1ucXXZQSEf4zny2HRwAQKtVpkLPTUKRtt
10000.000 1BAFWQhH9pNkz3mZDQ1tWrtKkSHVCkc3fV
10000.000 12dUggmXPYsPVHaHr1DoW5J6bb6gvh4yZq
10000.000 1EyArywoLEhFto6uKWMxA9QKXJWLTNghsz
10000.000 14YK4mzJGo5NKkNnmVJeuEAQftLt795Gec
10000.000 1Le6MkiTvkorvC1JwYXzQUSfqA3ebzGW7N
10000.000 1P1iThxBH542Gmk1kZNXyji4E4iwpvSbrt
10000.000 1KbrSKrT3GeEruTuuYYUSQ35JwKbrAWJYm
10000.000 16TPVCpvtJ6FkV5xNKBp35aMo4BWFGxiEY
10000.000 145YHsQU7HMzkRnD5SBSuFAzQgCYnAnLkN
10000.000 12tLs9c9RsALt4ockxa1hB4iTCTSmxj2me
Total: 562,625 BTC
Do you agree with this reasoning? I'm not saying it's a perfect definition, but it should be reasonably accurate and with very little risk of overestimating lost coins. It is also easy to prove me wrong. If you control any of the above addresses, just spend a satoshi from them. That will be more convincing than any argument, plus you will remain anonymous!
Any address with 10,000+ BTC that was existing before July 2011, has had zero outgoing transactions since then, and has received less than 5 coins since then.
Q: Why does this formula manage to distinguish lost coins from coins in cold storage? And why July 2011?
A: That's the time of the great market crash and start of the plunge to near zero. Any large holders would have surely sold at that time or in the following weeks.
Applying this rule, we find that a LOT of the richest addresses are actually lost forever (hopefully this list doesn't have any mistakes):
79957.042 1FeexV6bAHb8ybZjqQMjJrcCrHGW9sb6uF
50000.041 1P3S1grZYmcqYDuaEDVDYobJ5Fx85E9fE9
50000.041 1DEpjpftLbsGiCJvJDp2F2quVRnymV8U5Q
40000.041 1cXNTyXj4xPGopfYZNY5xfSM1EPJJvBZV
40000.041 12HddUDLhRP2F8JjpKYeKaDxxt5wUvx5nq
40000.041 16Ls6azc76ixc9Ny7AB5ZPPq6oiEL9XwXy
38000.041 18Hsgq92AUB1PYLU6MUMQXiwdebaDRo9oQ
31000.041 12ib7dApVFvg82TXKycWBNpN8kFyiAN1dr
28150.041 12tkqA9xSoowkzoERHMWNKsTey55YEBqkv
23249.041 12fZ2HxkLjG9zn1u44XYsFFYKHM4A2zCea
13050.000 1KX8EPDcziwbGaC7oDHDuKE9SfLWMmmbZy
12950.000 1MHdm5XZMrfoZFoUktEaGhYevmdiXoc4x4
12800.000 1B1wPLyrJ831sg1D8hnZLBG7SejXbqMMrH
10770.515 1F34duy2eeMz5mSrvFepVzy7Y1rBsnAyWC
10689.034 1FpqQnKQCgDkJFMC94JL8FpRyHTZ3uRVZ1
10009.251 1f1miYFQWTzdLiCBxtHHnNiW7WAWPUccr
10000.000 18k9tin39LKegFzHe8rxSgvJXDpuMriGJq
10000.000 1JtpgqCf3SSeCeYWEDJjkfYFH7Ruhy4Vp1
10000.000 1DJSiWg6Ci6DLmxZFjVNBKn9CcahLFx5gS
10000.000 1Du2jAQsBQnkkVZkN4oqC46tS78k7WMkVq
10000.000 1CPaziTqeEixPoSFtJxu74uDGbpEAotZom
10000.000 1ucXXZQSEf4zny2HRwAQKtVpkLPTUKRtt
10000.000 1BAFWQhH9pNkz3mZDQ1tWrtKkSHVCkc3fV
10000.000 12dUggmXPYsPVHaHr1DoW5J6bb6gvh4yZq
10000.000 1EyArywoLEhFto6uKWMxA9QKXJWLTNghsz
10000.000 14YK4mzJGo5NKkNnmVJeuEAQftLt795Gec
10000.000 1Le6MkiTvkorvC1JwYXzQUSfqA3ebzGW7N
10000.000 1P1iThxBH542Gmk1kZNXyji4E4iwpvSbrt
10000.000 1KbrSKrT3GeEruTuuYYUSQ35JwKbrAWJYm
10000.000 16TPVCpvtJ6FkV5xNKBp35aMo4BWFGxiEY
10000.000 145YHsQU7HMzkRnD5SBSuFAzQgCYnAnLkN
10000.000 12tLs9c9RsALt4ockxa1hB4iTCTSmxj2me
Total: 562,625 BTC
Do you agree with this reasoning? I'm not saying it's a perfect definition, but it should be reasonably accurate and with very little risk of overestimating lost coins. It is also easy to prove me wrong. If you control any of the above addresses, just spend a satoshi from them. That will be more convincing than any argument, plus you will remain anonymous!
Jump to: