Topic: A Single Bitcoin will Worth $100K - Do You Believe it? - page 5. (Read 13614 times)

That and a few thousand years of gold hoarding tradition.  Until un-backed fiat came into vogue, everything was settled in physical or 1:1 gold notes.  Bitcoin has 6 years of hoarding tradition?  And an unlimited number of cryptos can be propped up to spar with Bitcoin?  I'd say tread lightly.  The landscape will be totally different in 5 years, and I'm not confident Bitcoin will remain on top in the crypto world, let alone the physical world.

I really appreciate your postings but don't you think you are overestimating the influence of the bitcointalk-board? I think this board, and particularly, the shouting crowd of uber-perma-bulls just as perma-bear-trolls has an vanishingly small impact on the price movements or the long term future of bitcoin.

Uber-perma-bulls buying 0.5 BTC to get rich same day or perma-bear-trolls selling 0.25 before the end of bitcoin....

...an ignorable factor ;-)

Gold only has value because people are as crazy for it as we are for BTC...

I'll let you guys figure out what I am getting at.

Because those ppl are seeing the bigger picture and are long-term holders. Cant youre brain accept the power of Bitcoin?

You stay at ignored.

When you build your home on rocks (or math) it usually last more than the homes someone else built on sand (and trust).
It is not irrational to expect the homes built on sand and trust to be washed away from a flood (of water or fiat).

The fact a lot of people, here, believe in "to the moon" scenarios is heavily compensated by the fact outside of here a much, much larger group of people do not believe it and believe in "ponzi" scenarios.

Currently there are probably less than a couple of millions of users.
1/3500 people worldwide.

of these, just a small minority really believe in 1 M$/BTC (in today purchasing power).

It might be a valid line of thought if this was a forum talking about magical cardigans with pictures of fairies that we really, really hoped the rest of the world would love too.

It ain't. Price projections are based on straightforward adoption and usage of something that could be potentially incredibly useful.

The question is to what extent the rest of the world learns that it could be of use to them.

That...actually makes the most sense. Let's hope you're dead wrong lol.

I think due to the fact that so many people here have so much complete blind faith that it will reach extremely high levels, that it will never happen. It's too easy, too expected. If something is too good to be true then it probably is.

Not in the next bull run, but the one after, we will probably see the price of one kg of gold to be lower than the price of 1 BTC.

Before the end of the year we will be able to buy 1 gold ounce with less than a BTC, maybe two ounces or three (at the peak and depending on the exchange rate of gold and USD).

Before the end of the next year we will be able to buy 1 kg gold for one bitcoin (maybe not, if the gold price soar as I hope to 2K before the end of this year and 4K before the end of next year).

Well, not really. It was really difficult to break through the spot price of gold, and it happened only momentarily and only for GoxBux. You could never actually buy gold for bitcoins at that price.

So one thing at a time. Surely one bitcoin has the potential to be worth much more than one ounce of gold, which are both completely arbitrary units. Probably several times more. But it's not really true that it has been there.

Worried? Here's to HOPING

I'm worried that the dollar will fail by the time we're at $20,000 per coin. Afterwards BTC might be the new monetary system. Like it or not, apart from gold, it's the only candidate.

Well given the absence of a time target I guess it is possible but I doubt a bitcoin will ever be worth 100,000 USD worth of 2014 purchasing power.  Here's why:

Right now all btc really allows you to do is access the btc payment network and be a commodity with a fixed number of units.  The first of these is easily imitated by alt coins, the litecoin or doge payment network is functionally equivalent, and in some ways better, than bitcoin's.  This just leaves the second and while bitcoin will clearly benefit from network effects, in fact it already has, I just don't see people agreeing that it is worth 100K each.

However, I must say, as a huge bitcoin fan, I hope I'm wrong.

It is unfortunate that Ghash.io managed to get 51%+ as that does cut to the core of the bitcoin value proposition of decentralization.  Given something like this happened, that a year ago I would have said was impossible, clearly there are challenges ahead, which also work against the 100K USD price target.

thats a great point zimmah. people act like alt coins could 'easily' overtake bitcoin, but they're all literally useless. i think drk and ltc can be used on some sort of silk road like mystery land off in the dark voids of the internet maybe, but no where else. if i wanted to go on vacation and buy a car and a house and art and jewelry with bitcoins, i could do it. right now. thats bitcoins advantage is that its the only crypto coin you can actually use to buy real things besides other crypto coins.

I don't think that you need to wait if you use bitpay. Nevertheless, the advantage is in P2P transactions.

Yeah that depends on thee greed of each one, some people might be good to see bitcoin at 10,000 and will spend it while others will continue to hodling.

Well, most of our actions and activities have moved to the network already. Bitcoin, as a global, digital currency was something everyone was waiting for. It will revolutionise the world in a way we do not fully imagine yet.

I wasn't aware that the transaction time had to do with protecting the network. On the note of chargebacks and whatnot, I think accepting 0-confirmation transactions for smaller items is fine. Credit cards, while accepted even for larger items, are not safe either; people can do a chargeback and get a full refund. It's be the same thing with Bitcoin and 0-confirmations.

Ahm and it depends on the rate of reserve and velocity of money. And: In today's dollars or in some hyper inflated USD scenario. Let's assume the latter are the same like today. Same as the economic output.
So what matters is adoption (what % of all transaction volume in purchasing consumer or real investment goods in the world) and rate of reserve (21mio. Bitcoins / all bitcoins and claims of bitcolins used as money).

What is the supply of money worldwide? We have about 1 trillions € as coins and banknotes, 5 trillions as M1. The Euro-zone has about 1/5 of the world economy, so the world's cash should be around 5 trillion and the world's M1 around 25 trillion or 7 trillion and 35 trill.. USD. 

So what if there are no claims of Bitcoins (for example people store 1Mio. Bitcoins on coinbase but coinbase has only 500 000 coins over time, because they realise, not all clients want their coins at the same time) and 100% of all transactions are used in Bitcoin?
This would be 35trill. USD / 21mio. Bitcoins = 1.2 mio. per Bitcoin.

So now you can play other szenarios:
Let's assume a 50% reserve rate and 10% transaction volume. This would be 3,5trill. / 42mio. bitcoin = 83 000$

So let's try 10% reserve and 1% transaction volume. This would be 350trill. / 210 mio. Bitcoins = 1650$

What do we have today?
I think it is more or less 100% reserve. Maybe 80%. And the transaction volume should be far less than 0,001% (Attention: The 35trill. USD money supply is not the transaction volume. And pushing around bitcoin from one account to another account of the same person is no transaction volume in this sense. You are not buying anything in and market transaction).

Other effect: If Bitcoin is a better store of value than toady's dollar, this adds value like other features of this currency. If it is more volatile etc. this subtracts value.

You're obviously new here.

The 10 minute confirmation time is there to avoid that lagg will cause a miner to do a 51% attack because if you just chain your own block you will not need to wait for confirmations. If the confirmation time is too low the network would not be nearly as secure. That being said the 10 minute confirmation time is only the time the network needs (on average) to actually put the transaction in a block, but as soon as a transaction is signed as valid and spread throughout most of the network (a process that will usually take only seconds) a transaction can not be taken back in principle (there are some workarounds, but they are not foolproof and no one would risk doing that for a sandwich).

So anything that is not too valueable can easily be sold without having to wait. And anything that is very valueable does not usually get sold within 10 minutes anyway.

Chargebacks are not needed either. Cash does not have chargebacks and it's still a popular payment method. Credit cards and banks have chargebacks mostly because when a company has your info they can take money out of your account without your permission, but you can just chargeback if they do that. Chargeback is often used for fraud though and it's better not to have it, because otherwise it would be very difficult and costly to avoid getting scammed.