Topic: A video on bear waves, we MAY be seeing a huge fake out (Read 381 times)

I expected the SEC to be banging through my door this morning when I saw the price drop.

---

I don't think it's going to be the same tomorrow but today at 1pm BST I got a message to say I was still up 1% over the 24 hours...

---

To not be a fakeout we kind of had to fall a bit. I don't expect the market to keep going up. It'll probably go sub $10k again, and in 2015 it fell down to more than it had in the past rise so I'd expect about $5-6k if we get a repeat of then but we have gone up much sooner than I anticipated so this may be completely wrong.


The greatest effect of the halving is normally found after it has happened although, looking at a coin like litecoin, it has broken the tend it had previously so bitcoin might do the same too (I pulled out at the exact peek there and I'm not sure howI I did it).

he's been hiding in politics.


I find a lot of stuff pretty funny when it comes to TA.

The only thing I actually thing probably works out somewhat if looking at the averages of the price and predicting what it might be based on that. I've watched a bull flag that has just sunk back to the start of the initial pole and was glad I didn't trade that one (as I was considering it)...
A lot of the TA guys look for a copule of indicators and most of them said that a raise of 20% made us really oversold, we can't keep going up otherwise it gets dangerous when we stop...

This post is almost prophetic, given the fact that it was posted yesterday, and we've corrected down to the early $11,000s.

Of course, this was something that was a matter of time. But I don't think that anyone was expecting a 20% correction overnight, essentially. The run up to nearly $14k did turn out to be sort of a bull trap, but an expected one, given the fact that there were so many panic buyers that were irrationally making decisions.


I think that the OP is talking more so about a short term adjustment, as opposed to a longer term sink down to another bear market.

But you do raise an interesting point about the halving. I think that what is interesting about this bull market is that it has gained so much steam in a short period of time, despite the halving still being a year away. It could be a result of institutional investors, as others suggest, but I think that there may be more to it than that.

Jet Cash, great to see you still here.  Haven't seen you post in quite some time.

As far as the market(s) being manipulated, I hear that same statement with every serious market swing--up or down.  I hear it in the precious metals market all the time, and occasionally in the stock market.  But they're just vague statements.  Nobody ever really points to who is doing what kind of manipulation.  So I take all of that with an enormous grain of salt.

I won't watch anything that involves technical analysis.  Unfortunately that's really all that crypto has, since there isn't much else to analyze except for rumors and news--both of which can be extremely unreliable.  It all comes down to market forces, and those patterns you see can easily turn out to be nothing.

Bottom line for me:  this rise of bitcoin was too high, too fast.  This is exactly what I've been afraid of all along, i.e., a repeat of 2017.  Then again, I don't claim to know where any of this is going.  So I'm just waiting and watching.

I think the difference between now and the 2017 peak is that eventually we will go down as well but because of that 2020 halving it won't go down that much or at least that quickly. I mean think about it would you really mine bitcoin if it was 3 thousand dollars? It was a difficult time for miners even then and after halving it will be even more difficult so I think its highly unlikely we will see those prices again.

Yes it is increasing very quickly and it should calm down a bit and it should react a lot less volatile but in the end even if it is a pump and dump scheme type of deal by the whales and what not it won't be dumped too much down, hell I think these prices are temporary and we will move higher and won't ever come back down to these levels again.

maybe but usually people put off these things until the last minute. even though there has been a lot of talk about halving these days but there has been a lot of talk about it when price was falling down from $6k also. so if they wanted to buy they would have done it then.
plus each time in the past, they have always FOMO bought in 1-2 months before the halving not a year before it.

My theory is that this rapid bull market is caused by the halvening FOMO - so many people expected that Bitcoin will enter a bull market in 2020, that they triggered it one year earlier by massively buying in the stagnating market, which caused even more buying, and then it started looking like a new bull run, which added even more FOMO. But this can mean that this bull market will be over before the end of the year, because it is very fast, way faster than the last 2 cycles.

What makes you say 10k will hold?

I absolutely agree. It's always nice to be prudent in your approach when you're dealing with BTC speculation, in my opinion.

I echo your sentiments regarding how this bear market seemed to be rushed. I would have expected the consolidation process to take at least a few months longer than it did before a complete trend reversal started.

It could probably be attributed to the fact that institutional investors are more active this time round, and the market overall is recognising the trends better and reacting much faster to cheap coins, although I'm still quite cautious given the fact that these levels of growth is simply unsustainable for the long run.

For now, I don't see any reason why BTC won't go higher - I'm just saying that a major correction may come. I still think that the $10k support will hold up, though.

No need to listen to hunches where there is actual data and cash flow. Check out this research on how to find the bottom using data:

https://www.amsinger.org/open-research

I hope you like it!

Aaron

I'm holding some and I'm shorting some portion of my holdings.For now I don't really care too much when it comes to long

term aspects yet we know btc do really surprise us anytime.It can soar up high and dump like it was just nothing happened until
we realized that we are already on the floor.Im not really concerned about peak or possible ath as long I can utilize to make money into
those movements then it doesn't matter.

Although I'm not a fan of TA, I have subscribed to the channel. It seems to be interesting to me. Thanks for video

sort of. usually price takes the stairs up and the elevator down. in other words, the crashes happen much quicker. the speed of this rise---considering we're only a few months into a bull market as opposed to late 2017---is impressive, to say the least. i've given up calling the top and am just standing in awe.

we just tagged the .618 of the entire bear market. it's as good as place as any to take a breather but like i said, i've given up calling the top.....

Is it any sillier than going from $6000 to $3000 in 4-5 weeks? Both are pretty silly.

I don't got any idea what's going to happen.

And as for the original trader if he is one of the $1000 crew then he's going to be a shit trader. They should be unemotional and willing to turn on a dime, not marry some far off idea touted by a few nobs.

It is quite hilarious after having 6 months to buy in at $4k or less that some people are only jumping on now that we've broken $10k. I mean, what changed? If you believe in the future of bitcoin at $13k, why didn't you believe in its future at $4k? Still, the cycle will repeat. I have little doubt that in a few years we'll see people thinking that buying at $20k was a bargain.

Agreed. It took around a month to go from $5,000 to $6,000. To me, that felt like a  reasonable and sustainable rate of growth. Now we have gone from $6,000 to $13,000 in 6 weeks, which is frankly ridiculous. This feels too much like Q4 2017 again, and I am expecting a big pull back to happen at some point, but whether it hits now or it hits at $40k, I wouldn't pretend to know.

In the last few days I've started getting an uneasy feeling that the market is rising too quickly and too soon - in the past recovery after a bear market was taking more time. Either it's indeed a small rally that will peak around the last ATH, or it's a start of a truly grandiose rally that will peak at ~$300,000. There's still one year before the halvening, and if it's not a fake out, the bull run will end around that data - either before it or right after it.

I hold about 80% of everything with a 50/50 split between bitcoin and eth (I'm in a long term position on eth but I don't like putting everything into one coin).

I'm thinking of re-entering with 12.5% more but I can't work out when will be best to do it... I might wait until we pass £10k and if we're still going strong I'll put some in. I keep discovering funds on places like coinbase too that I should've used (not much though)...


I don't buy at good times though. I've bought at $6k once we'd atabalised a bit on price and then went in at $4k with something too... But we're still in profit now. I know people happy with 0.1btc they bought for $10 and is now worth $400 or something...

---

@pooya, I think there was a double spend found about that time with a block that spent 1bn btc to one address but that was all I got. It affected the price quite a bit as it was about to go up. I remember it going from £150 to £220 to £120.

The chance to buy may have only passed if you're letting the price increase scare you off. At $5000 people also thought they were too late. $6000, $7000, $8000, etc.

You got to respect the trend for what it is and let go of that 'I'm too late' mentality if you want to buy but think it's too late. People have had enough time to buy below $4000 but didn't do so because they don't have the balls to buy something that has gone down like 50% in a month or so. People feeling bad about having missed the boat have only themselves to blame for.

Good option to still benefit from this bull run but not go big is to allocate 25% of your capital to Bitcoin if you haven't bought already. If it goes up you are at least part of the bull run, where if it goes down you can add more to your position at a discount, and this lowers your average entry point too.

There are two factors that make Bitcoin unlike any other asset class. One is the buying of Bitcoin by bankers and institutions to remove coins from the market. The other is the collapse of the debt laden fiat system - who knows when "they" will allow that to happen. I suspect we will have a correction to allow for profit taking, and the shake out of highly geared bulls. The market is highly manipulated, so I can't guess when they will trigger that.

you can't talk about bear market and bull traps when we have been in a solid bull mode for nearly 5 months. specially since it was an obvious reversal after over a year of drop that was as big as 85%!
that only can be true when it is the start of it the bull market and price is just starting to go upwards.
$4000, no, $3100 was not just a bargain it was a wet dream come true. basically anything below $6k was a golden opportunity

he keeps repeating "bitcoin has not bottomed" because he is one of those who were waiting for $1000 and dumb low prices like that... and what do you know he actually says that number after 15 minutes. you can't expect price to drop 99.9999% before you are satisfied and call it "bottomed"

arguing it  took X months to recover from previous bottom and now it is taking shorter is dumb

what malleability "hack"?

Hopefully not a bull trap, though it is still possible for the price to drop but it can’t be a major drop. The bottom price was hit already, hold because the market will go high. That was a good price movement analysis, i was here during the peak and hoping to experience the new pump, hold hold hold probably the best advice.