Topic: About betting on live events. (Read 495 times)

Though I may not discourage you in your idea, no idea is completely dumb or idiot as you think. Good things take time and decipline to achieve. Who knows if your strategy works out to be one the best strategy Afterall, Nothing is certain until it proven.

Since the time is spend on trying to discover a strategy that suit suits your mind, I don't count it as a waste of time. A lot of Time Must be wasted to achieve a greater result. after all scientists usually try countless times and fail before discovering or inventing a useful product.

You ask as if you dnt know what people are looking for in live bet. Al boils down to making profit or gambling for fun.

Betting on live events can be very risky and advantageous, betting on live events like soccer and every other sports can put you in Profit if only you if you can avoid greed. betting on life events cut down the risks involved in gambling, but to me everything is gambling, just as the way normal games live bets can also be that way. Apart form football I can't really bet on any other games, because of the risks involved. But an easy approach to live games is to just accumulate a decent amount of odds, The odds should not be above 2 to 3 odds.

This can probably be automated, but it’s easier to make a table for yourself for the most common cases and follow it. For example, favorites are rated as 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, etc. up to 2.0 - only 8 options (of course, there are intermediate options like 1.63, but they can be rounded or you can select quotes that are closest to round numbers). Now we need to draw up a table of what the favorite’s quote should be in the 20th minute, after the first half and, say, in the 70th minute. It's not difficult either. In the future, you just need to compare the current live quotes with what “should be” and make a decision to place a bet or not.

I do not bet live events because it increases my BP by unimaginable quantities when I see the stake going against me. I prefer placing the stakes and not watch the matches. I avoid watching my games play, because in as much as I stake with amounts that I can afford to loose, watching them perform to my advantage and then things start going south ignites lots of unbalanced emotions in me, so its better I stayed off it to maintain my sanity.

For me it feels like live sports betting often has the ripest opportunities for profit, as you can sometimes identify situations that all the automated systems on sport betting websites don't seem to account for properly. Some interesting bets are things like football and estimating the amount of cards that will be dished out in a game. You might be able to pick up a lot more on the frustration and aggression shown by one or both sides of a match. You may be better at anticipating the over and under amount of cards that will be given. You can sometimes eek out what looks like an easy, albeit small, profit when teams are up by two goals after the second half - but you should be selective and not go for games that are too unprofitable.

Like i mentioned, i don't need it to bet for me, so that bot wouldn't have an access to my casino account as it isn't a gambling bot. It's just a personal bot that notifies me.

But your text part that i painted green in interesting idea. First i didn't even get it, so i had to read it couple of times, but i think i want to try that out at some point, if i understood it correctly. I wonder if there's an easy way to automate that.

First of all, I should note that no one in the gambling industry likes bots, so if you make a bot, then use it on a remote virtual machine so that there are no questions about your main gaming account.
In live betting, I think it is profitable to bet on the deviation of the quote from the average, but being busy prevents me from testing this in practice. The point is that if, for example, the favorite's quote is 1.7, then it is assumed that by the end of the game it should be 1.0 (the favorite wins confidently and you can no longer bet on it). Thus, for football, you can draw a straight line from 1.7 to 1.0 with a duration of 90 divisions (minutes). This straight line will be the average, and if we bet in case of a sharp deviation from this average, we will be in the black (but this is not exactly haha).

And somehow i still keep finding those soccer and basketball games manually with option to bet.

But seriously... 3 grand? Where are you getting that number from?  And what are the hidden costs you see here?

Building it with python will be free. I could host it for free myself, but since i don't like to keep my computer up all the time, i could use cheap hosting server.
And running that bot 24/7 in some cheap server, when all it would do is micro tasks like monitoring some public APIs and notify me when my parameters are met, would cost me maybe $5 per year.

Or did you misread that i am buying that code instead of building it? Because even as i suck at coding, i realize that this is going to be an relatively easy task with python a noob like me. And i should really monetize my work if someone is paying 3 grand for few lines of code .

I'll start coding in a month after i get my other tasks ready.

Betting is never that hard if you stick to bet on the team that has the highest probability to win on the game. However, not everyone is capable to see that because not all gamblers are wise bettors. But as long as you only bet on the amount you can afford to lose, regardless if you end up losing on your bet, that will never create a problem on your betting funds, but of course if this consistently happened, that's never reasonable at all.

Thing is among sportsbetting live events are the true 50/50, cause regardless of how skilled or outmatched teams are when they are in the field, certain causes for mistakes will arise which will end up turning the tides of battle in unprecedented ways. Which is also why I outright avoid them.

Now I see how that could work, your tactic in question but aren't sportsbooks already aware of this? Which is why for live games they only allow a certain window of time, usually a couple of minutes before the game starts where you can still place a bet and once that resolves you're pretty much unable to stake a bet anymore? If that is not the case then this will be greatly abused cause in games like soccer, having a 2 point lead against the opponent already spells out an 80% victory, which means as long as you wait for a team to score out 2 more points against the other you're basically granted a secured win.

Again, not really into sportsbooks anymore but I remember them having imposed such rules and features to specifically make sure this doesn't happen. If that's not the case then what the flying fuck lol.

I'm not going to condemn your prediction pattern just like you did; it's possible to cut a win with that strategy - especially on advanced/competitive leauges like the premier League, champions League etc.
Again, there's a usual comeback in football that we've all known for years of experience in the game; Fulham could be leading Brighton with 2 goals to nill, with a bigger odd but, it suddenly switches up in the second half and ends with 2:4.
That's the point... We all know that casinos would lock an option when the defending team is weaker than it's contender... You can't wager against them when the game is already going against them...lol
That'll cost you a 3 grand.

Usually live bets pay way less than most pre-match games, so you must be careful about that, because it can turn to be a scam when odds are very low for the risk taken by the bet. And when you place live bets you bet most of the time with/from your emotions, without trying to think with your brain and to take a step back on what is going on. Then bettors are less likely to notice very bad odds. In addition when you do live betting you have more chances to try to instantly recover your losses by betting on anything you can.

I understand exactly what you are saying and it doesn't look any idiotic if you try to outsmart bookmakers or casinos legally and have your win because you can't afford to be losing money regularly to casinos. Betting on live matches especially where the advantage has been shown in the both teams like one having to be ahead and you are betting in the middle of the game, the odd is lower than when you are betting on the losing team. But it doesn't make you idiotic, you are just being smart and moreover, some gamblers are using this method to win regularly. They only need to increase their bankroll and most times they are successful. So I don't see anything wrong if you bet live matches even when the game has come into the last 15 or 10 minutes, just as you can also bet on 10/15 minutes of the beginning of the game, they are all risk without a guarantee.


Sure it will take time because you won't be able to monitor all games played globally and to see the one that best suit your parameters.


Can you really build bot for this? Will you be able to get a bot to give you notification of such parameters. It will be difficult especially where the parameters are not stable. Like you may have a parameter for last 15 minutes, last 10 minutes, first 15 minutes, first 10 minutes, intending corner etc. All those may not be easy to track but I understand what you want and wish you luck to achieve it.

It looks like it will be lower than that, maybe only between 1.1x to 1.15x, it will be very rare to get odds above 1.2x in a match like that.
It's ok If we only occasionally bet on matches like that, it is profitable even if it's only a little, but if we bet on every matches like that, I think it will actually make us lose in the long run.
Losing in 1 match means we have to win in 5 other matches, so if the OP intends to bet on every matches like that - it's better to consider it again because many people have tried that strategy and it didn't work in the long run.

I don't have a clue what you are talking about here. Change the bet how? You mean I should risk more by making a seperate bet for same match later on with a significally lower multiplier?

I don't understand why that would be beneficial? And it literally has the opposite effect on what I am looking for. I would have to use time for research and my whole post is about how i could save more time.

If i wanted to set bets before the matches, i would just gamble normally. I however can't pick a basketball game to bet where other team leads over 10 point on q2 before the game has even started. That doesn't even make any sense.

It seems to me that you are playing it safe, correct?
I would say that in these cases your profile would be a better fit for offline betting, don't you think?

Pre-live betting offers some advantages, such as analyzing changes in odds more calmly, pricing them more accurately. This way, you compare with a greater degree of precision the value you think is fair with what is being offered

Online betting is good for those who are willing to risk more, they tend to be very advantageous for those who bet on immediate results based on the current situation of the game.
Obviously, they are more risky.

In any case, I don't think you're wrong, but perhaps it would be good to start the game with a pre-bet configured and, if necessary, change it during the game, if necessary.

There is always a tax that we have to pay in exchange for profit, and even in exchange for opportunities. This is an application of the rule that nothing is 100 percent free and that everything is worth an effort, and here lies the high degree of risk in gambling, as there is not only a high possibility of losing assets, but of wasting efforts as well.
Betting on Live matches is more complicated than regular bets because you have to make the appropriate decision in the shortest possible time, and for this reason we find that the profits are relatively high compared to regular bets.


This is a good Idea. You can almost achieve more profits from investing in it than gambling itself.
Personally, I have not heard that anyone has produced this type of tool previously, and I advise you to prepare a design for the concept as a whole and present it in the projects section here on the forum. I'm sure someone will be interested in this topic.

I usually take advantage of those small odds especially when I'm well convinced that the team I'm betting on is leading against their opponent team , it gives me more confidence to wager more  money, or sometimes when the opponent team is mounting a lot of pressure on the team I betted on and trying to equalize or score, there is usually be an increase on the odds and what I do is usually take advantage of that very opportunity the odd increased.

I don't have very realistic expectations for continuous profits, but results remain to be seen. And if this doesn't work at all, i'll modify my tactic, or just stop betting for a while.

I am not sure if i had enough time to sacrifice for proper analysis in a way that i would be satisfied with. And i probably couldn't do half as good job that AI couldn't do 100x faster and better than me. But various custom AI versions that predict matches and results are in fact on my to-try list as well. So far i had such a mixed results with them that i might as well toss a coin to pick a winner instead.

But i am now learning python to make my bot.

Betting on live matches will still look for good odds, because betting only with odds of 1.1x or 1.2x will not be interesting and worse, if I bet with low odds and the result is losing at least I will feel like a fool and not about bad  luck. Indeed,in the past I have had experience with betting tricks with only low odds just to get a win and not care about theresults. But when betting with only small  odds and then losing, I think it's not about bad luck,but about stupidity. Therefore,  even if I bet on a live match, I will look for odds that remain good even though it may be difficult to achieve but at least I have made a good  effort and even if I lose at least it will still be a reasonable result.