Topic: Abstract Analysis (Read 338 times)

Is it a fixed price that it would be sacrosanct, everyone is just doing their own analysis to the level of their knowledge and an analyst must have given that report for everyone to have also follow the assumption too. Before I can believe such news despite the fact that I am a believer of bitcoin, I need to see some facts and also seen the cart that pointed them to that direction and if it is not a chart, I need to see exactly the fundamentals and the news that led to that assumption.

No doubt bitcoin will surely get there, but that will be in like some few years’ time, let’s say that we give it like 4 to 5 years’ time, because that is when I assumed that everything about the system of bitcoin would have been settled.

It's done way beter before.... Stop killing our dreams 

  Just for three years to have a growth of about 90% increase;  I'm not so sure of that, not expecting that to happen anytime around this time.

Yeah we good  
I also believe volatility will decline.

I just thought 2022 seems late for the first $100k bitcoin  

Hell no!

Log price usd is a linear function of the square root of time.
The vertex of the parabola in the first chart of the OP is located at September 8, 2010 on the horizontal axis and -1.64982665 on the vertical axis (in dollars, that's 10^-1.64883 = $0.0224).  The subsequent charts use the same data and the same quadratic equation, except that the arc length graph uses a single set of weekly weighted values instead of the double chart with weekly highs and weekly lows.

The dollar scale of the arc length chart doesn't give you the same spacing as a simple log chart.  On the vertical dollar axis, you're looking at the logarithm of a square root.
So the dollar values are "off" your expectation of what a log chart should look like.  But they're mathematically correct if the spreadsheet and my computer are making correct calculations.

Another interesting implication of this model -- if bitcoin continues to color between the lines like the talented kindergartner it is (not saying it will, but for argument's sake), then future volatility will decline.  It's a result of the dollar values being "off" because of the square root function.  That's how this model works.  If you don't think that bitcoin's volatility will decline, then you should reject the model.  I find it reassuring.

I would welcome some mathematical proofreading.  This is the equation for arc length (p is price):
(228.868256*(LOG(p)+1.64982665)*SQRT(52380.6786*(LOG(p)+1.64982665)^2+1)+LN(228.868256*(LOG(p)+1.64982665)+SQRT(52380.6786*(LOG(p)+1.64982665)^2+1)))/457.736512

We good?

Has this $100,000 by the end of 2021 sacrosanct? I see these predictions and analysis everywhere on the internet.
Coming to the analysis. I think we are going to see some of the signal coming to pass and the futuristic views are based on the technical ground if something fundamental happens it will be very difficult to achieve that in 2020 or 2021.

Like the graph

The $ values seem to be off though...

100k would require way too much money to not change the charts direction, that is whats wrong with this, you can see it going like this and reach 100k but you are missing out how much a chart can change if enough pressure is put on the market as well.

Just to give an example when bitcoin was around 6.5 thousand dollars and if you looked charts and I mean ALL charts it looked like it was about to go off really high (which it did in similar fashion couple months later) but because Craig Wright sold thousands of coins all at once the price went down and stayed there for a long time. Which means yeah this chart looks like 100k is doable one day but it also means that charts can change a lot during that many years, we still have to follow this path without any interruption.

If you want to engage in extravagant extrapolation, this should do you

That's going to be brutal af for peak buyers, but very much a normal sort of correction for Bitcoin.

If we look at BRK.A stock price, it had one major (almost 50%) correction above the $100,000 level. This was from ~$144,000 to ~$75,000. If no-coiners dare to complain about Bitcoin falling hard from such levels, they should look at this stock and figure out that it also happens with assets that are considered defensive investments. 

I do however hope that the liquidity that this market gains will make the corrections not dip as deep as they used to do.

True that you cannot predict. That’s why I said “potential”.
Shifting the curve up gives the possible working area of bitcoin.
Effectively saying it is unlikely to get above that price.

Once we have more cycles predictions might get better.

Sounds good to me if this is the case, one more year to get cheap BTC. But damn I'll still never be close enough to my "dream" goal that even in 2016 was tough enough.

The "good" news is you're right. Considering that 90% retracement from an ATH isn't unusual for BTC, a $10k crash is not only possible but expected (if the ATH is merely $100k).

Loving all the conjecture =D

A serious recession would probably negatively affect the market.....to what extent, I don't know. A lot depends on when it happens. Looking at the SPX, we could easily see another 2-3 years of bull before another 2000 or 2008 type event. Considering we're still in the early stages of a Bitcoin bull market, we could go exponentially higher from here before that sets in.


It starts with high-risk hedge funds. Then institutional traders, then conventional investment banks. Then conservative pension funds and other asset managers. Eventually, even central banks may need to hedge fiat currency exposure with more reliable stores of value. They already do it with gold.


Thankfully, that seems to be the consensus around here.

I noticed another thing in this log view recently: whenever Bitcoin reaches an ATH, it never again dropped under the value it has approximately 6 months before the ATH.

You can slide the parabola straight up, straight to the left, or slide it at an angle, which it looks like you did.
That's fine.  I experimented with moving the curve around too, but there's so little data at the tops, three or four data points as opposed to dozens that line up on a curve at the bottom with a very high correlation coefficient (like 0.99), that I just couldn't justify it.  If it sounds like I'm saying that predicting the tops is futile, well I may just have to plead guilty on that one.  
Not completely futile.  If the model says bitcoin's 1000 or so days ahead and you're not getting scared, you're not paying very much attention.  That's actionable information*, and that's the significance of the second chart in the OP.

*not financial advice

It's traded like a stock, except for the fact that it has no underlying revenue and profit streams and therefore is more likely to experience 80ish % crashes, which we can see in the charts happened more than once already.

As for the control of supply, Coinbase is working towards that with their acquisitions. If you combine every single coin Coinbase currently holds, it's a number very near to 2 million Bitcoin, or nearly 10% of all the coins to ever be minted.

Bitcoin is not a ordinary stock market asset.

To control it, TPTB will need to control the supply, like they did to gold.

I meant something like this... it shows a possible potential high price ....
My paint skills suck

I'm less optimistic in that aspect. I don't think we'll continue to get the growth rates that we have been rewarded with in the past. Bitcoin has never really had a true multi year stock market level bear market.

Once the institutions and their clients are on-board, who else is left to buy your coins? Investors are solely here for the gains and the excitement that this market offers. If you take that away, there isn't much left that crypto has going for it.

People assume there is so much latent demand for Bitcoin that it has to reach $100-$500k but that's just wishful thinking. I'm open to the possibility of a $100k wick in the distant future, but that's about it.

If the market cash back to $10k, I am not sure that anyone would still lose, except those that invested at peak, then it would be their fault them, because by now, they ought to have learnt based on the last experience never to follow FOMO price. Before the price gets to that $100k, many people would have even cashed out, and I think bitcoin supply too would have been nearing the 21 million already, which is why I doubt of bitcoin will reach such amount so soon, I think it will still take like another 5 to 8 years before we can see that.

I don’t argue the possibility of this current bitcoin bull run growing to like $30k, and I think if it will crashes back to bear market from that value, the lowest it would crash back to would be that $10k. As time progresses, everything will be seen.