Topic: Activation of segwit via BIP141 = $10,000 overnight (Read 1768 times)

141 was never, ever going to happen. 95% is a totally unrealistic figure, albeit appealing to the unworldly. There's enough miners who are completely uninformed about new developments to make up that 5%, let alone ones who don't want it.

Let's see if 148 amounts to anything. I get the impression that potential miners of it are supposed to remain stealthy until the vital moment.

Antpool would benefit from spamming the network, for example, because they take the transaction fees.

The point is that any entity which receives transaction fees is incentivised to spam the network.  It could be a group of different major players who all reel in transaction fees.
This still doesn't refute my point, which is that neither of the "scaling solutions" proposed would actually make spam impractical. 

Even if you can say "an attacker would not use SegWit keypairs", you could also say "it doesn't bloody well matter whether they do, because it's pretty easy to spam the network in any of these situations".

Read the three pages of this thread and a lot of information of this 1 August thing and still i am confused of what will happen to bitcoin price after 1 August. Will August 1 will decide everything or maybe it will take a longer time ? Are we crossing 5000$ on that day or moving back to 1000$ ?

Nobody knows what will be with crypto, just wait until August and we will see who said the best rumor;)

And that's based on which past events?
Ethereum forked and didn't need 3 years to recover, it actually pumped and botch chains are worth more than before the fork.
Litecoin activated segwit and is worth much more than before.

Stop making up shit and trying to scare people.

did you even check the dates of the spam
june 2016 (core bip needed activating so they spammed to cause drama to rush it through)
october/november->  (core bip needed activating so they spammed to TRY(but fail to)cause drama to rush it through) thus they had to keep it going hoping time would be extra pressure..


pereira4 &billy.. you keep on pointing fingers in the wrong direction.. cant you atleast see your reddit scripts are old/unbacked up by stats/ and debunked and outdated.

Ok. 


I decide now:




10k is great!

 

firstly CORE removed the fee controls and screamed "just pay more".. dont blame pools.
secondly 'miners' are just asic users..
what you need to be defining is malicious 'pools' that collate the data into blocks. not the miners which just hash out a hash and have no control of block content or fees..
miners and pools are separate functions of the symbiotic relationship of bitcoin

the main fee damaging tactics are those of the core developers with their new fee war pressure code, and pools only accepting the high fee's first.
(funnily enough its BTCC and other bscartel pools that do this more)


as for segwit which still relies on a 1mb base block(141) so the fight for space is not really reduced.(segwit keypairs dont just sit in witness without touching base)
...

personally the segwit2x is just as empty a hope as segwit1x(141) because as soon as the segwit aspect of segwit2x is activated (which actually activates segwit(141) early)

..the node count capable of accepting the 2xbaseblock part needs to happen for the 2x base to actually flourish within 3 months.. otherwise all that happens is segwit(141) and then mempool hell of everyone trying and failing to move funds to new keypairs as the bloat would cause many people waiting days and having to resend with higher fee's just to try getting funds into new keypairs.. (stats show months of mempool headaches as a minimum)

..
the real solution would have been a legacy4x and also limit txsigops to 4k or less forever to mitigate the 'linear v quadratic' crybabies.
 then without having to shift majority of funds to new keypairs, users will get more capacity.
other bloat code could be added to reduce the greed of allowing single users x% of blockspace
EG why does anyone need 100kb of blockspace for a single tx... thats just bloat causing greed.. that needs reducing/ making leaner

So what do you guys think that will happen now? What is the most likely thing to dow ith three weeks left? How is there still nothing decided?

The bad news is that the closer the deadline is, the slower the rate of signaling will be, and consensus will never be achieved. The good news is that there will be no forks over this, hard or soft. Instead, there will be technological solutions of limited scale that require no consensus -- miners, nodes, users will just come up with their own protocols and devices that other miners, nodes, and users will be free to use or not use. I would have thought that all this would be obvious by now.

What the fuck? So one coin is going to crash to nothing and the other is going to crash 90%? Come on man, that's some pretty heavy doom and gloom. Either way we'll have segwit. Anyone is able to make a fork of bitcoins at any time. That's what a lot of altcoins are anyways.

btw, don't bash janitors. Sometimes it's a smart person who needed a job to feed their family.  http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/05/columbia-university-janitor-graduates-with-honors/

I partly agree with the soft fork scenario which is also quite amusing if activated however, sooner or later a hard fork would be inevitable since, well, intentions. At this point in time, many people would be torn in a dilemma; would it be their holdings that they would need to put at stake or the whole network and just pray that it pans out well? The activation of some good BIPs are clearly being stopped by politics in a "decentralized" network.

You're expecting way too much of them though bud. There is no way that they would do anything but drum up more drama so they can farm as much value as they can off of the fees they get from transactions. If they didn't have the extra money flowing in then chances are they would be a lot more comfortable with pumping the value of something they ca already easily pull value from. Nowadays that isn't something that should be expected, at all really.

It was all indeed Roger Wu spam attack as well, and we don't even need segwit, but that is not the question. The narrative is not if we need segwit or not anymore, segwit is going in one way or another, and we all know that BIP141 is the least disruptive, less annoying way to get segwit in. A hardfork would be a disaster for holders that simply want to sit back and relax, because their holdings will suffer, a lot. Not to mention the mess of 2 chains.

The mistake of anyone supporting the hardfork is clear. At this point BIP141 is objectively speaking the best way to get through this mess.

If the malicious users are miners trying to keep the fees high (quite possible) then a larger block size would not stop them at all.  Neither SegWit nor increased block sizes would do anything to someone with a lot of money to spend (or "invest") on spamming the network.

At this point, it is rather safe to assume that we won't have BIP141 activated since majority of hash power is supporting SegWit2x.
But hypothetically speaking, if we had sudden BIP141 activation and price would really rise to $10k overnight...
Do you really think it would be a new stable price of bitcoin? It will be the only brief surge of the market with immediate collapse after.

Stupid janitors that you're talking about here are actually the engineers who gets to decide what path would the project take since they have large amounts of money at stake for the system to continue rolling. Also, I don't see why we need to rush activating BIP 141. All of those unconfirmed tx before was clearly an attack to "emphasize" why we "need" BIP141 on as soon as possible.

activating segwit DOES NOTHING!!!

the whole fee/malle/spam/ promises is only achievable if (especially the malicious) users actually move funds to NEW KEYPAIRS AFTER activation..

the "activation" itself does NOTHING
however the 'promises' are about getting peoples funds over to new keypairs.. and then and only then POSSIBLY see benefit is only gonna happen if a good percentage of people spend their UTXO's and never use legacy tx's again

think about the bloat on the mempool if everyone tried moving their funds to new keypairs... with 55million UTXO's sat their on legacy keypairs

it not about activation.. its about keypairs.

which is where i laugh about litecoin, where even the pools advocating for segwit dont want to move their own funds to segwit keypairs.
its a total laugh..

segwit is an empty promise of social drama

You make an important statement here. I really hope the players are taking note. I however don't see a crash to 0 no matter the outcome. It might go lower, but will pick up in a few months.

But believe me dude, its not about hard or soft fork, it is about the present status of bitcoin and awful fees. It is pretty sure activating any proposal will going to push up transactions speed and lower fees significantly.
So out of present proposals, Segiwt (BIP141) is best one. No matter where chains and split gotta go but it has become necessity for bitcoin.