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Topic: Actual Bitcoin commerce vs. speculation - page 2. (Read 5468 times)

legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 03:33:44 PM
#50
Don't worry.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 03:25:05 PM
#49
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in Wink

You'd be surprised how many of them would join the defectors, which brings me back to my thesis that Bitcoins will remain super-volatile over extended periods of time. (Longer than the overall bull market can last)

At least until it gets to the point where the orderbooks are bigger than any group of people working together to bring the price down too drastically . either way, you'd have a rush of panic buying as S/D sets in and people buy the cheaper coins up.

Yeah, that's the nature of falling knifes, there is always a floor underneath them. But if the air is thin the terminal velocity is quite high.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 05, 2013, 03:15:04 PM
#48
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in Wink

You'd be surprised how many of them would join the defectors, which brings me back to my thesis that Bitcoins will remain super-volatile over extended periods of time. (Longer than the overall bull market can last)

At least until it gets to the point where the orderbooks are bigger than any group of people working together to bring the price down too drastically . either way, you'd have a rush of panic buying as S/D sets in and people buy the cheaper coins up.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 05, 2013, 02:18:10 PM
#47
I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Imagine doing that a year ago! Now, imagine a year or two later!
A year ago the only thing on that list I could have done was use it for the local shop.

Progress.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
August 05, 2013, 02:17:39 PM
#46
I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Imagine doing that a year ago! Now, imagine a year or two later!
A year ago the only thing on that list I could have done was use it for the local shop.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 05, 2013, 01:59:42 PM
#45
I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.

Imagine doing that a year ago! Now, imagine a year or two later!
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
August 05, 2013, 01:52:33 PM
#44
I use Bitcoin daily to buy myself food via foodler, I use Bitcoin at a local shop around here, I bought the Humble Bundle via Bitcoin, I buy electronics via bitcoinstore. and every chance I can I pay with Bitcoin instead of fiat. For me, it's been a very meaningful way to conduct transactions.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 01:48:15 PM
#43


That sums it up.

I'd live there. Up on the very tippy top. Because I need the exercise.

I'll take the small orange one and the glass house at the bottom. Wink
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 01:41:35 PM
#42


That sums it up.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 01:34:23 PM
#41
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in Wink

That's right. The thing about a Martingale is that you don't always have to be right, you just have to be right enough. Whales will make mistakes too. And all you have to do is to be just a little better than they are at calculating risk.

That just made me cringe. Grin

It's the way the world works.

Only, the usual end-game for the really big players running a Martingale is to burn down the casino at the appointed time. And say, "Oh, those chips, they are from the old burned down casino, they aren't good here at this shiny new casino".

Only, Bitcoin is really hard to burn down. And it is getting harder, exponentially.

Will there be a new game? Absolutely. But there is a certain beauty in how difficult it is for any individual to gain ultimate advantage in a trust-free system.

That's cute a trailer drives into the parking lot of the big casino parks in front of the employee rest room next to the ash tray and invites the ones out for a smoke for a spin of roulette.
"It's burned down!" 
Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 12:44:26 PM
#40
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in Wink

That's right. The thing about a Martingale is that you don't always have to be right, you just have to be right enough. Whales will make mistakes too. And all you have to do is to be just a little better than they are at calculating risk.

That just made me cringe. Grin
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 12:41:55 PM
#39
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in Wink

You'd be surprised how many of them would join the defectors, which brings me back to my thesis that Bitcoins will remain super-volatile over extended periods of time. (Longer than the overall bull market can last)
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
August 05, 2013, 12:38:16 PM
#38
This situation is like what I saw in Vietnam: Some business man accept USD payment, but their actual sale in USD is very small. For them USD is a type of money only rich people have, and those rich foreigners seldom appear

Same for bitcoin, only IT and financial aliens from cyberspace have this high credit currency  Wink

Satoshi could change the name to aliencoin to further improve this impression Grin

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 05, 2013, 12:32:47 PM
#37
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.

the thing is, if they get out, they are distributing the coins to many more hands ie bringing more "prisoners" in Wink
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 12:30:01 PM
#36
I can't see why the upper end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution should be excluded from the dilemma. I think it's even more pronounced for them.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
August 05, 2013, 12:29:29 PM
#35
i said many time bitcoin dont have a economy is a lolconomy and i also said many time that my personal bitcoin velocity is near 0

I would say that is pretty much consistent through the userbase.
chodpaba: Forex volume is actual moving money.

If bitcoin days destroyed shoots through the roof one day I would think about discarding the possibility of a sudden high velocity crash, but until that happens it's always on the horizon, just like those mad upside rallies you guys are so fond about.

Um... Yeah, it moves between the hands of FOREX traders.

Your point?

The amount of people using the buy and hold strategy are in a prisoners dilemma, once one of the major players decides to defect for whatever reason there won't be anything to stop the others from defecting. Individuals act irrational.

It is this mass psychology that makes this market predictable. Those individuals you speak of are actually on the lower end of the Bitcoin wealth distribution and they are ill suited to absorb the risk... If they are subject to the greed/fear cycle they are gamblers who will loose most of what they have invested. Conversely, it is possible that those who can actually absorb the risk will lose as well, on an arbitrary time horizon. But their behavior will not be the same. They can comfortably double-down on a Martingale strategy just because its fun.

The game structure is not a simple Prisoner's Dilemma. There are many games afoot.

If so, I kinda like being in this prison! but not alone....
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 12:16:12 PM
#34
i said many time bitcoin dont have a economy is a lolconomy and i also said many time that my personal bitcoin velocity is near 0

I would say that is pretty much consistent through the userbase.
chodpaba: Forex volume is actual moving money.

If bitcoin days destroyed shoots through the roof one day I would think about discarding the possibility of a sudden high velocity crash, but until that happens it's always on the horizon, just like those mad upside rallies you guys are so fond about.

Um... Yeah, it moves between the hands of FOREX traders.

Your point?

The amount of people using the buy and hold strategy are in a prisoners dilemma, once one of the major players decides to defect for whatever reason there won't be anything to stop the others from defecting. Individuals act irrational.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 11:57:39 AM
#33
i said many time bitcoin dont have a economy is a lolconomy and i also said many time that my personal bitcoin velocity is near 0

I would say that is pretty much consistent through the userbase.
chodpaba: Forex volume is actual moving money.

If bitcoin days destroyed shoots through the roof one day I would think about discarding the possibility of a sudden high velocity crash, but until that happens it's always on the horizon, just like those mad upside rallies you guys are so fond about.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
August 05, 2013, 10:56:54 AM
#32
i said many time bitcoin dont have a economy is a lolconomy and i also said many time that my personal bitcoin velocity is near 0
when you ppl can figure the bitcoin GDP you can calculate the velocity=GDP/M2 ofc for bitcoin M2=M1= 1229787404 USD(atm using http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/)

lol will be generated since there is no fucking way bitcoin GDP to be even close to M2
please go on whit the price talk
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
August 05, 2013, 10:44:18 AM
#31
for bitcoin to hold value, but each commercial transaction represents at least two people that agree that bitcoin actually *does* hold the value that mtgox says it does.
One, actually. The seller doesn't have to believe that the stuff he sells holds any value Smiley

*snort* Funny. But... not entirely true: he must have believed he at least could make the trade I described when he got that bitcoin. So at some point in time, he believed it held some value.

Not entirely true, if you get them only because you think somebody else holds them at valuable. Granted it's only a marginal difference between the two, but I do think it matters.
There were people who knew very well what they were doing when they got into the pirate ponzi early. I'm not saying that Bitcoin has to suffer the same fate, but it could. The risk of that happening is directly proportional to the spread between valuation due to economic activity and valuation due to speculative demand.

Are you saying that currencies are Ponzi schemes in general?

Because, that is generally the case.

I'm not, and I disagree.
There are only certain mechanism which have the same basis as a ponzi but even so they aren't entirely based on that. These are for example compounding interest and deflation. They are neither necessary nor a inherent property and I don't see any reason why these mechanisms can't be minimized or even eliminated.
Look at regional currencies, which only failed because the bureaucracy did shut them down.
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