I can only be bullish about bitcoin if the halving has already occurred. Since the halving hasn't occurred, I think am less bullish on bitcoin price. I'll turn bullish on Bitcoin following months after the halving season that is expected to occur by next year.
Regarding that, I'm trying to determine how realistically Adams projection of $100k before the halving season might be made. Since it is after months of the halving season that Bitcoin tends to soar in price, reaching a new all-time high. I'm not sure how likely it will be that the current state of the crypto market will result in a new ATH being set before the halving season. That looks unrealistic to me, I don't know for others, what they think about Adams prediction
I would place a successful outcome for Adam, in terms of his bet to be somewhere in the ballpark of 15% and 20%, which surely are non-zero odds that he could win, yet at the same time, the odds are seemingly against him. I doubt that his measurements much more positive, even if he did state the reasons that he was making such a bet in which we would presume that he should consider the odds to be greater than 50% that he would win.. . but since the amount is so low, like others mentioned, it could be a bit of a publicity stunt, even though Adam doesn't really seem to be that kind of a guy.
This discussion made to made a research on the Adam and the one I saw is
Adam Back's who bet on the coming halving and accumulation of bitcoin by whales before the halving took place. And from the article I also saw that the price of bitcoin has been on this $29+k for sometimes now and refused to breakout the line and on the 7th of August, 2023 it break the line to enter $30+k before coming down to it normal price now. And this indication shows that before the next halving bitcoin price will rise up.
I fixed your above-referenced to the article that you found.
And, you do not have to read an article to figure out where the BTC price has been, especially since there are all kinds of better information sources that show BTC price charts out there, and many charts will both show you live representations of where the BTC price is within a context that you can frequently customize how you are viewing the price chart information or the charts might give you abilities to go back in time and to highlight certain price performance areas of the chart.
I can hardly appreciate why anyone would give much of any shits regarding what the BTC price has been doing in the past 5 days - as you mentioned August 7th, which is just a ridiculous analysis - even if you say that you are getting that framing of the matter from the article, but if you are repeating bullshit from an article and not being critical of that same bullshit, then you are guilty of either spreading or believing the bullshit that you are repeating.
We can go back to March and see that the BTC price has largely been between $25k and $32k, and we have to go back to June of last year before we see BTC prices higher than $32k.. and who even knows the extent to which any of that would be relevant in terms of suggesting whether the BTC price might break out above $32k prior to the 2024 halvening.. or even if the odds for breaking upwardly are decently well, there are still likely resistance points before the BTC prices might hit $100k or above, which is what would be required for Adam to win his bet.
I don't give too many shits about charts, but they still can show us various historical price locations, and surely we can get some senses from history and context as well in terms of how much momentum allow for the BTC price to be able to keep going in one direction or another once it starts, and I am not even sure if $32k would necessarily be a resistance point, even though sure, BTC prices have not been above it for 14 months, yet surely there likely would at minimum be some kind of resistance between $32k and $40k-ish.. and there may well also be some kind of resistance point within about 20%-ish of the previous ATH.. and then perhaps even a 3rd resistance point before even reaching $100k.
I am not sure if there would be any science to it, even though surely momentum is a factor and looking at historical examples, we can see how momentum can sometimes overcome resistance points, and even behind the scenes there can be some bull whales (in the event that retail is not jumping in) who may well be able to overcome the bear whales, and it is not even that we can know the extent to which bear whales might both have ammunition and are willing to spend it to avoid getting reckt, including their sometimes abilities to utilize fiat financial tools to attempt to get their way, but their reckening could get worse if they end up running out of resources and not being able to stop the upward movement/momentum.
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But also we have to consider the amount of time Bitcoin will spend in a sigle price trajectory just like the current Bitcoin price benchmark of between 29-30k price were it has spent more than 90 days already, this could be a pointer as to what price we should expect before the next halving cycle.
Maybe I am spouting out technicalities, but I don't see bitcoin prices having been in that price range for more than 90 days.
I see about mid-late June (which is less than 2 months), BTC prices (Bitstamp) broke up from $24,756 and largely got within a $28,574 to $31,818 range since that date.. and yeah sure it is a technicality that you happened to shave more than a couple of thousand from the price range that you provided and also you added well over a month to the timeline that you say that we have been there. If we go back 90 days, then we are in early to mid-May, and that seems to be a bit of a different story in terms of where we were at then (in the mid-$26ks).. but still hardly seeming to be a relevant timeline in terms of price movement and/or consolidation points, but we did get a break up in the BTC price in mid-March (around 150 days ago - or 5 months) in which we could factually accurately assert that BTC prices have been between $24,756 and $31,818.. and sure maybe we could round off those numbers to make it easier to read and maybe even taking out the spikes.. but still your framing of 90 days and even framing of a $29k to $30k price seems inaccurate and even a bit misleading, even if you might not have had intended it to be... even though probably your overall point regarding the odds being against Adam in his bet are likely fair.
, I would have advised him better against such a bet without needing to disagree especially. I think alot of people could have stressed these points to him, its true across multiple markets that prices are fractional or like an equation in balance not a singular number to bet on. Some ideas are flawed from the start, I hope its just a fun bet thing. 
