Topic: After a few months of China crackdown on mining. Check it out! (Read 518 times)

I didn't know that AP controller Sina aka Weibo.
But in your fairy tale imagination, everything is possible. I guess that the CCP is actually controlled by Nestle.


Oh yeah Franky!!!, you tell those stupid miners!
Those morons from Bitmain building their biggest facility in Ordos, in the land of coal.
How stupid of them not to follow your advice, I mean, how could a multibillion company do otherwise than you say and still make billions.
Morons, everyone should just follow your advice!!!


Look in the mirror and come with something other than this shit if you really want to prove something.
At this point, you just mumbling like an idiot who has again caught in his lies caused by a total lack of information and his pride of being a know-it when in reality is as stupid as this world allows it.


And your proof is a picture grabbed from the internet.
Loooooool!
So you have the English mouthpiece of the Chinese government acknowledging the industrial output is decreasing, factories are getting shut but no, franky knows it all knows better because he saw a picture of a skyscraper on the internet:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3150315/china-electricity-shortage-industrial-production-grinds-halt

Oh, one more thing, if there is no energy crisis in China why has the price of coal reached 280$/ton?
Probably because AP, they are the ones not telling how right now in China everyone leaves their appliances running as they have too much energy!
You know franky, there was a thing about never being too late to stop being stupid but somehow you've managed to get past that point and magically sealed the way back.

Again zero fucking proofs of anything, zero numbers, zero everything just a shitload of crap, as usual.

comedy gold
your using an associated press article talking about small villages running on coal as your excuse to say there is laws against electric use in renewable area's and cities.
(hint bitcoin farms avoid the coal powered north east)

let me guess in your imagination you think china only operates factories for 4 hours a day..

and you also want to pretend that cities have mandatory blackouts at night where its like london blitz where anyone showing a glimmer of light at night will be fined

oh my god you are desperate.

its now highly apparent that you have never even run, visited or even researched a mining farm in china. never actually travelled or experienced china nor even spoke to anyone living in china to actually know what its like in china.

..
if however you are just exaggerating propaganda to cause argument on this forum. please find a new hobby to entertain yourself. maybe try comedy. you seem to have a skill of people laughing at things you say.


truth is.. just like in america, NY banned all bitcoin activity.. why.. so they can then offer licences. (research:NY bitlicence)
they cant licence something until they first ban it.
so aim your research at the real politics. not the media propaganda you exaggerate.
oh.. and um.. ill show you a picture. please do not react with anxiety over 'fines'


disclaimer: no chinese citizen was fined in making this pretty

It seems that China is very strict with banning Bitcoin mining, I already suspected that when China made regulations regarding Bitcoin, China with all its might would enforce these rules.

It's not only related to mining but China recently made it clear " Transactions related to Cryptocurrency  are illegal"

That clearly means cryptocurrencies as a whole are banned in China, No ICO in China - China also used this as an excuse " ICOs are being used to raise illegal fundings", Including many others.

China's hash rate dropping to 0 should be satisfying to China.

But i have a question: What if someone uses a VPN before they start mining, Will their original location also be changed in the statistics of hate rate share?

The disclaimer should be: not for franky who doesn't know how many sun hours there are in the UK, how a mining reward is split, the difference between a pool and a farm, the difference between the location of a mining pool server and a farm and some more basic stuff like reading


Have you ever heard of rounding?
An S9 burns 33.6 kWh a day, that is 1.4 kwh an hour, still between than your 300 off margin of error.


Where did I say anything about boards? Get yourself tested, you're seeing things!
And besides, you don't need to get anything because if you would actually check, bitmain has ready to ship s19pro j right now!


Let's add kids under 16, poeple over 70, poeple who earn less than 500 a month but somehow magically manage to get their hand of 10k a piece gear. Of course, it's not impossible.
This then brings the question, why wouldn't that be also possible for India. So why is not India having 6% of the hashrate?


2340 kwh a month, 10 times above the average consumption per household! in a country where police are patrolling the streets and issuing fines to merchants who let the lights out during the night when the shop is closed.
Hilarious!


It doesn't fucking matter.
Have you actually read the official orders on power rationing coming directly from the government?
Again, frankly, read something that is actually happening, not your unicorn dreams:
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2021-09-26/doc-iktzscyx6474716.shtml


Put your electric consumption bill my dear franky!
Let's see how you manage to get 2000kwh a month!
But of course, I know already that you won't since when it comes to facts and numbers you run away like a child screaming curses because the other guy was mean to you.

stompix (note comedy)
dont forget to add a disclaimer page to your post with the words "assumptions" "estimates"

and um 1.5kwh does not equate to 30kwh a day. only say this as you love a good knitpick
also whilst at it. you want to make your assumptions on a 1million chinese people

well that would be 14exa. first off..
secondly. you then divert to assume that they would need to get new circuit boards for 2x 219pro
so now you saying that you assume each individual miner has 220thash instead of 14..
well then its not then 1 million people but instead just 45,000 people. thus. a country with a 1.4billion people.. you think that its not even possible that 0.0032% of people would be miners

have you been this neglectful with math on purpose. because it seems you are trying to throw every bath toy out of the water to make it sound insane and inpossible for there to be any scenario where home hobby miners can mine.. when the obvious is actually achievable

90,000 people have ONE s19pro. only 3.25kw/hour, so no big deal.

you can continue to scream and cry and pretend that home hobby mining is not a thing and impossible. but i seen right through your assumptions and estimates

oh and one last thing.
forget your views on china. its no longer the rice paddy fields where homes only get enough electric for a fridge and a single light bulb for just 8 hours a day.
china has sky scrapers. apartments. neon lights. you might be surprised with how much china has evolved in the last 20 years.

yes some farming towns might use less than 1kw/h.. but city dwellers with 70inch TV, smart fridges, central heating. gaming systems and such use alot more then 2-3kw/h

so yea take your ricepaddy field propaganda vision of what you think china is like. and put it as a exclusioned clause in your assumption page

You're forgetting this is China and ignoring the current situation there . And second, you're forgetting mining is not like browsing and not that easy to hide..

The average household consumption in China is just around 200kwh for the cities, a single S9 burns 1000kwh a month.
All the Chinese government has to do is get the list of poeple who are consuming more than 5 times the average, step one.
Of course, you say that this guy and that guy has used 10k kWh a month, but there is a difference, I'm willing to bet all my BTC that his consumption pattern is not linear. For sure I can turn my air conditioner, my oven (electric), the washing machine and manage to get triple the consumption, but I can't do this all day all night. For the miner the consumption is linear, 30kwh a day, 1.5 each hour after hour, a pattern that simply can't be hidden.

The second, the IP problem.
Of course, use a VPN, but again there is a difference. You connect to a VPN you browse a few websites and before the GFW manages to learn what you're doing you shut down and that's it. But with a miner again you need to connect 24/7 to an IP and send nearly the same amount of data each second and each minute, any such behavior is so easy to track and they did it already.

The third is a pure economic reason.
With an s9 miner, you make around 100$ a month at 10cents/kwh. Right now you can drop this for 500$ and sell it in a few days.
So you can take 5 months of profit in a few days, not carry the risk of mining going unprofitable, not risking the miner crashing, and not risking jail in china, which is quite different from the rest of the world.

Now, to get to the 6% number you would have to get 10exa. That's close to one million old miners. Do you think there are 1 million individual miners in China? Let's be honest about it, if it were the whole f chain would be flooded with miner payments.

Of course, you can assume that some are using more than one, like 5 or 6 or newer models.
Then you have higher easier-to-detect consumption, a noise that can rival a carwash, and oh you can't without a new circuit breaker since most do only 30A and you won't run at 220v even 2 S19pro on that.

And then there is the math behind this.
Bitmain according to announcements and press releases and fillings has delivered just to companies in the US and Canada around 20 exa of hashing power, not to small guys and private entities. Then there is microbt, the rest of the world, and the fleeing big farms (like btc.com).
And despite a huge delivery of brand new hashrate, despite mining per TH being 5 times more profitable than a year ago we're still 25% below the peak.

Now from 180 exa, we cut 135, we relocate around half of it, that 60, we add 40 in new gear and we're still above what we see.
This means that either China had more than 75% or that less than half of it moved and is still on.

I didn't expect the sudden drop in hashrate just because China banned bitcoin mining, I thought that there will be stragglers that will try to do it business as usual but no, they did drop it the moment China said so, goes to show that bitcoin mining in China is owned by the government themselves. Seems that US will get the benefit from all of this and at the same time the community.

Bitcoin hashing power does NOT represent who/which country “controls ” Bitcoin. Everyone shouldn’t forget that Proof of Work is more a Sybil Attack prevention mechanism than a mechanism for consensus. BIP-148 proved it, although there will always be the deniers.

Banning and restricting any use of not just bitcoin but all crypto related transactions and mining in some countries like China really do some bad effects on the value but for a short-term only. Even if China belongs to a superpower country, still there are lot of big countries like USA, Russia and some parts of Europe who let their citizens participate in any crypto related transactions which gave a big positive impact on the market.

Higher electricty bills may gave the miners a hard time to mine, which would result to a high density of demand than the supply given. However, there are many options available today to lower the electricity fee without lowering the consumption. Because of these options, the supply and demand can be balanced.

I feel like you are being silly on purpose. I never claimed they would find a block ever, I also tried to avoid using the term "solo miner" to avoid that confusion. Just like a farm with lots of ASICs a "home miner" with one or two ASICs would also connect to a pool and share the work and receive a portion of the reward based on their contribution.

There is. The usage is always increasing and there is always a shortage of electricity. We don't notice it 99% of the times because the production is keeping up with the ever increasing demand. The complain is about wasting electricity and the pressure that puts on the grid not to mention the environmental damage. Not everything is about "getting paid".

It is ridiculous to expect to capture every single household that is mining with a single ASIC miner. Someone running a single ASIC miner is expected for all intents and purposes to never find a block. Should the data in the OP also capture the people who are mining by hand?

Those who are solo mining with a small number of ASICs are going to be well within the margin of error I previously explained.

There is no reason why an electric company would complain about heavy electric users as long as they are getting paid.

In China, that is experiencing electricity shortages, and collects extensive data on its people, would be likely to look into why a household is using 10k KwH a month. My guess is someone using 10k KwH per month who is not mining is probably keeping their homes at a ridiculous temperature and or keeping their windows open while running the heat/air conditioning.   

Either that or migrating to settle in a crypto friendly country with fair energy or face the possibility of folding up, they can always export their production to other countries except the government has a problem with that too,
And speaking of China in control,  I mean this ban actually shows a clear picture of what is really happening, despite the China hashrate at 0%, everything seem to be okey with btc, I guess it was a blessing in disguise for the vast majority who have the believe that china was in control, now that fear is out.

Interesting data, but yeah, not sure how useful it all can be end of the day. Thanks, nonetheless.

What's still more interesting for me to know now is how much of that hashrate has actually changed hands. Are the miners owning them the same people (I think they are)? Is the distribution of ownership more diverse? And I don't mean more distributed among more subsidiaries and shell companies that eventually all end up having the same beneficiary.

In fact, if the forced hashrate migration actually ended up being better (cheaper), could the concentration of hashrate ownership actually increased?

That wasn't the point.
Even if there is a small number of miners in HK that mine with electricity cost lower than the average price (which is the $0.15 you found) or miners from other parts of China, the validity of the data provided by the study quoted here is seriously questioned.
The error is definitely more than 1%-6% too.

You don't need to mine 1 block per day, you get a profit equal to how much you invest. A single ASIC is enough for a "home" miner.
You'd be surprised how many people are using a ton of electricity and have nothing to do with bitcoin and bitcoin mining. For example a couple of months ago where I live there was a big news about a celebrity's electric bill that his usage had surpassed 10k KWH. Based on your numbers that is 3-4 ASICs. There are those who waste a lot more than that.
Power companies have always been complaining about these excessive users even before bitcoin was invented. In other words there is nothing to notice about a home miner.

As how I've given it a closer look on China's way of control system, they totally go against any innovations or inventions not initiated by them, 99.9% of their economy produce and services offered from generated within their circle, infact dey have their own Google and other ip address does not work in china, never forgetting learning Chinese is also a prerequisite for anyone there.

China has its own digital Yuan and it will be difficult for them to allow any form of currency other than thier own to outrun theirs, and they have even given a verdict to eradicate all mining rigs before December end this year. They want no elements of trace to all crypto activities.

Electricity in Hong Kong costs about $0.15 per KWH, which is very expensive by bitcoin mining standards. As such, I don’t think there were ever many miners in HK.

I also don’t think there are many solo miners that are individuals out there anymore. In order to mine one block per day, you need approximately 1EH of hashrate (assuming no variance), which is about what the output of 9,000 Antminer S19 Pro. Reduce the output to one block per 14 days and only ~640 S19 Pros are needed. Reduce block output to once every 4 months, and you need 75 S19 Pros.

75 S19’s would consume about 240k KWH per hour. China is dealing with blackouts now— they are going to notice it someone is using that much electricity.

It is possible there are miners in China who have two or three miners in their basement that connects to pools via a VPN. I don’t think there are many of these people as the Chinese government doesn’t screw around, and it also extensively surveils its citizens.

The data used is sufficient to be 99% certain that reported percentages are within 6% of the actual number.

I'm challenging the validity of the data they use because logically it makes no sense. For starters in a country with 1.4 billion people, there is bound to be a lot of solo miners. Additionally people can still mine bitcoin in Hong Kong (part of China). So when the data suggests 0 hashrate from China, it can not be right as it has to be at least something there.

There is also another possibility that the pools are hiding their China stats and reporting it as 0 to protect their miners.

This raises the question of how reliable the rest of the stats are!

Again, you speak without even bothering to check facts.
Cambridge data on power consumption and relation to CO2 is updated daily according to the hash rate and is constantly upgraded by changing the mix of hardware used for average consumption.

So, if you would have actually checked rather than writing non-sense you could have seen this:


But, if you're really interested, you can check their methodology and then try to make whatever point you want to. Next time try not to make a fool of yourself again, it's not even funny anymore.

and by such. do you think cambridge knows more about a pools stratums/workers then the pool itself.

just saying.
cambridge has also said recently and in the past that the CO2 level of bitcoin mining is like 3-4x more than other calculations. simply because they used old outdated hardware, and heck they even couldnt do basic math of daily hashrate.
(they took hashrate of ONE DAY and used that as basis for whole year rate. even though real hashrate was lower for most other days.)

but hey. lets believe a source of data just because it sounds academic