First we had extreme bears being loud, and now we have extreme optimists. Where are the realists?
Shaking our heads. :/ Though perhaps you would think I'm not actually a realist if you keep reading... (Massive "My Opinion" Warning)
There's signs of a turnaround, but it probably isn't going to happen the way most people expect, and a lot of folks may get burned. The jump from $2.50 to $7 in late 2011/early 2012 surprised most people and even fooled a few of us that thought huge gains were coming back again. I expect something similar to happen again. Instead of continuing to increase, the price fell back down and never saw $7 for a long time (6 months back then would be equivalent to about a year and a half today if you follow the logarithmic trend which others have posted about sporadically here). So yeah, look to see a surprise jump in price to ~$600 before falling again for another year or so and burning a lot of people in the process, IMHO. It'll be a long time before we see the ATH again, IMHO, though I have to admit that I'm still pretty optimistic we will see it by the end of 2018. Around May 2020 I expect to see a new ATH.
Please do NOT take my opinions here as solid financial advice, however. I believe interested investors should have some exposure to Bitcoin itself (instead of just crypto-companies), but I've known several people who "bet the farm" on it so to speak, and even though I told people in 2011 to buy a few hundred dollars worth, for some reason these same people ignored me and bought far more than they should have in late 2013, instead. If you're going to get exposure, do it now while the volume and interest is essentially dead, and for the love of God do not risk more than you're willing to lose.
To be honest, i don't analyse the charts to extent like most of other people do, instead, i like to follow simple logic of things. And it gets me the conclusion that there's a ton of money
missing here, that just waits for trend reversal/ bottom to happen, before it re-enters the market. The price fall from 1250 down to under 200 is enough of a sign that thee's little place left for floor.
I agree that the first stage of another bubble will be smaller bubble that will in the end shake weak hands before continuing upward, but at maximum 5-6 years from now, another large hype will happen,
that will make current ATH look like a joke, and i think it will never go under that level again, leaving traders no other choice than to rebuy even higher then they sold.
Same like you said, this is my opinion, and ofcourse i can't guarantee anything, but i'm pretty confident that this is exactly how it's gonna play out if the politics don't get in the way of bitcoin progress.
cheers
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