The Growth state is where we're at today. Right in the middle of it, or 2/3's, or 1/3rd into the Growth state, of course that all depends on how quickly main stream adoption does or doesn't go forward. At this point it appears it's almost a certainty that Bitcoin will get the lionshare of this emerging new medium of exchange and store of value, not to mention as a new payment system with no middle men such as banks required with Bitcoin. The uses are many, Bitcoin is vastly superior in many ways. Bitcoin is extremely likely a big part of the future.
Depending on how fast much wider spread adoption and usage occurs, plus much higher valuations occurs, altogether likely spells how much longer this higher volatility lasts. Just realize though that Bitcoin is inherently deflationary, and expected to consistently gain value throughout it's lifetime until finally something much, much better gradually overtakes it, or maybe finally not so gradually, but likely a very long time from this decade the way things appear from my own viewpoints and reflexions
There are also many people that take profits often, trading frequently, plus the highest risk day trader types, all while Bitcoin today is still relatively thinly traded in the scheme of things. So far there is not a lot of market depth, yet getting in before the next price range hits is important too since every new higher price range tends to take time for the public to adjust to. Finally people are getting used to Bitcoins at the $400 to $700 range.
The next range of $700 to $xxxx will take time to warm people up to it after the next big rally occurs too. Rinse, repeat... It doesn't take more than some heavy buying or selling to sometimes move the price around quite a bit. And once major price gains start to occur many get excited and buy, thus creating another big series of rallies. Then a peak, then a fallback, then everyone warms up to that price range justification, and well that's where we presently are once again.
The current range is about $400 to $700. When the $700 price is broken for longer than a week then maybe we move into a new higher range with all time high's met there. I doubt we stay lower than $400 for longer than a week again, but of course if the global stock/bond markets crash again and many margin traders there need capital for margin calls then of course there may be a temporary setback. IF that happens with Bitcoin at $500 then yes, we could stay below $400 for at least a few months possibly, but it doesn't mean we will.
That said every 12 months looking back the price has always moved higher, or almost every 12 month period? I believe every point, as long as one takes a 12 month time frame. Going forward that is likely as well, or maybe up to 18 months should wider swings occur.
Unless sudden, extremely wide spread adoption is had it's likely going to be another 5 to 10 years and $10,000 + pricing per bitcoin before volatility slows down. In other words higher float / supply/demand. And both extremely wide spread adoption with much higher pricing with much greatly wide spread distribution and usage will tend to tame things a lot. Until then fasten your seat-belt or move into widows and orphan stocks with old man Buffett, or grab some gold coins/bars and hold on tight there as well. Speaking of old: Soros just dumped his biggest US Banking stocks. Appears it's "that time again" soon. 2008-2009 repeat coming up. The stock market and the bond market are both extremely ripe and at full price and then some. P/E's are sky high in many stocks. Governments are almost all mired up to their necks in debts they cannot possibly pay back. Looking at all the options and realizing inflation looms very large Bitcoin to some of us is indeed a safer haven than almost everything else besides maybe a home in a non-bubble area, yet those are few and far in-between too.
I also expect Bitcoin to mimic Gold prices during any major global stock market/bond market crashes where both gold and bitcoin falls with the markets, but both end up relatively quickly bouncing back withing many months time, much like 2009-2010, but more so due to extreme QE to Infinity shifting into overdrive after any further global stock/bond or currency crashes.
Believe it or not many of us see Bitcoin as a safe haven, or as "Digital Gold 2.0", but with just as much price volatility as gold, or maybe even the higher volatility of silver so far, in the scheme of things at the present point in time. All that said in 18 months I fully expect all time highs in Bitcoin even if we have another global stock/bond or major currency crash in the next 6 months time. Give it 12 months post crash, and Bitcoin will be seen by many as a place to flee into.
There simply isn't enough physical gold to go around. And paper gold is merely an IOU, and many a scam lay in many Gold ETF's and other Gold Funds: i.e. their isn't enough gold in those funds or too much has been leased out to others. Toss in 3rd party paper gold counter risk and "paper gold" is a fools paradise today, imo.
P.S. George Soros did just move back into gold stocks in the 1st quarter of 2014. That told me all I needed to know. He sold his major US Bank stocks, bought gold miners again. He expects gold to be higher some year close down the road. Yet I belive Bitcoin will far outperform gold prices going forward for the next several years to say the least! Soros is uncanny at shifting into the correct sectors more often than not in the longer term of 18 to 36 month periods of time. But Soros like Buffett is too old to teach new tricks more than likely when it comes to Bitcoin. Toss in that if either of them bought much Bitcoin at all it would force bitcoin's price to the moon almost instantly since not that much is floating (offered) at current price levels. Thinly traded equals higher volatility. But sure as rain Bitcoin is gaining ever wider distribution and usage, along with ever higher pricing every 12 months or so.
Sooner or later the dollar is extremely likely going to get hammered, same with all these extremely indebted fiat currencies and government bonds, that includes almost every country around the world!
But the Fed's Dollar also extremely likely to rally in any global stock/bond market crashes, at least during the next several months as traders close trades and flee somewhere, and historically that's always been mostly to dollars. Of course maybe not dollars next time should the next crash be further out than several months from today... But odds are it will be dollars as the place most flee to, if it occurs in the near term. Old habits and beliefs are hard to break.
That said the Petrodollar has seen much better days, and it's getting rougher for the Petrodollar each and every passing week now.
http://dollarcollapse.com/ I like physical Gold in my possession, and in my possession and control Bitcoins, to ride out the next decade, anything is merely "paper", or an IOU promise that may or may not be real when the time comes to cash that out. Those widows and orphans stocks too, some of them, with no to little debt, and higher dividends are attractive too, longer term, to ride out the economic storms ahead. But not for those that may have to liquidate them prior to any of them recovering from a major price decline. So Gold and Bitcoin in the nearer term both appear safest say two years after the next 2008-2009 type crash. Even the best stocks may take far longer should QE no longer be an option for whatever reasons (sanity returns, etc).
It's just extremely prudent to HEDGE for both deflation and inflation ever since 2001, and maybe in that order, or not, going forward as well. Betting on merely one out come or the other may have horrific end results should one choose the wrong one. It's still very much up in the air as to what the end game is to overcome so much unpayable debts for almost every government in the world, China included.
Sooner or later heavy inflation to paper over the debts is almost assured unless major outright defaults occur. Take your pick but governments tend to inflate away their debts historically. Odds are that means most will be less wealthy. That's the nicer way to put being poorer for it.
SO: Myself and others were correct about the last housing crash, and global market crash. I believe 100% that the few of us saying it's all going to repeat again soon are correct again. Of course I doubt many believe that. Their in denial, or just don't understand. Hardly anyone believed it would happen last time. Yet a few of us saw the fundamentals and it was glaringly obvious what loomed and looms large.
Slingshot loves Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is Genius.
Bitcoin is Freedom.
Bitcoin is The Future.
Bitcoin is Digital Gold 2.0
