Topic: All classic sings for another drop soon. - page 2. (Read 4714 times)

As much as it pains me to admit it, that is a very good point.

Someone trying to snatch enough BTC to transact a couple of Krugerrands would impact the market, and possibly significantly so unless one were using Mt. Gox.  This is pretty lame, and some months ago I would not have thought it would be so so my estimates of a floor (and liquidity) have been way off.  Oh well.


I think one would be fool to either rule this out or to take it as a given.

It's still a gamble, chances are there is something else coming along before that happens. That is not sure though, bitcoin could evolve into that kind of system that is currently needed by the emerging open source economy. But at current prices this development would be way too expensive and it is questionable if the needed services could be integrated into the blockchain. I would consider it a 50/50 gamble at this point with a 90% chance of a wide spread success of the open source economy. So all in all it's still something where the odds play against you...

So to consider this a riskless investment you would have to be involved with the development of bitcoin itself and also be a participant in forging the new system. Most people who currently invested in bitcoin do neither, so here you have your reason for falling prices.
The wrong people at the wrong place & time can do a lot of damage to a world changing effort....

best thing to do is realize that bitcoin is going to be worth alot of money one day ...  so buy and accumulate, don't buy and sell like a mad fool,  consider a short term 5 year investment

We had a couple runs at a good drop the last two days; yesterday we flirted with $3 and bottomed out at $3.01 and today we managed to break through to $2.87. I need to quit second-guessing my instincts on this stuff, as I sold off all my coins at $3.07 yesterday expecting a drop, then bought back in at 3.10. So the question is, are we now set for a third run tomorrow that will break through to the low 2s, or will we now waffle around the $2.90 to $3.00 mark for a few days? Should I sell off at $2.96 again and wait for the big drop, or should I stay bullish? Hmmm.... If I tell you all what my plan is, I should charge a fee, because I'm almost certain that the price will go the opposite direction! I think I need to stop trying to play the margins and just take a slower approach, setting my buys and sells for much wider spreads.

You are contradicting yourself Nagle. But since you never reply I just might leave it as it is.

Anyway: If the current trading volume is dominated by bots these accelerating slope drops followed by a bounce are very likely to continue.
That is anything but Noise and a very reliable pattern.

I've been saying "long slow slide" for months.  That happened. Now we're seeing the endgame, which looks like the endgame for most penny stocks. The volume is low, around $50,000 per day.  Some of that is 'bots running the same money back and forth; the actual volume out of the market is smaller. The price moves around whenever anybody makes a sizable transaction. I'm not expecting a big drop, just random noise with a long-term downtrend.

Bitcoin is now useless as a currency, because liquidating the day's receipts for one reasonably sized store would crash the market.

The end is coming not with a bang, but with a whimper.

the bears are out n bout! 

Just as i write this a 2.9 just went pooof.

Down it goes.  2.98, where it stops nobody knows. 

$3.05 completely gone now too... expecting the $3 wall to disappear any minute now...

I'm sorry should I have contributed to that impression - I actually like your thinking although I often find myself to disagree with you...
I consider you one of the few non-trolling people opposing my views around here lately
But please don't be so quick with locking topics - I would have actually liked to add a more positive reply but found myself unable to do so.

Anyway - I'm all for constructive debates and I personally think there are still enough reasonable people here for this place to be a useful resource.

Sounds like people in general don't agree with or like your ideas.  It's interesting that your conclusion is that the problem is with everyone else.

I've skimmed through a few of your threads and quite frankly I don't think a miner's strike is a legitimate concern and I don't see a big problem with some people holding more bitcoins than others, I also don't think the forums reaction to just your posts is a good indicator of future bitcoin prices.  Sorry.

like this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4Q5puHD9hQ
(check out the big drop at 0:25 and the comments starting at 0:40!)

You ain't lying! I started in may and wasn't too bad yet. In June though, you could almost certainly find someone selling there mothers prosthetic leg for a bitcoin. We had people who would give you a compliment for some bitchange. And, the panhandling...It was ridiculous.

This reminds me of that saying about blood on the streets... does anyone remember?

Heh, becoming a bull once again has its own merits. Somehow has a cooler feeling than being a bear. Might have something to do with the general insanity out there; it's very refreshing to have something to be positive about.

Well, you are probably right, but by the measure of during august & september, while there were trolls there was something constructive going on. Now each time I create a topic making any suggestion I am ridiculed and people act like a bunch of starving wolves.

I originally bought in around the dollar mark. When it hit around $8 I sold half, those kind of returns are pretty good. Then as the march continued i got lured back in in the teens. Finally I bailed mid 20's. At which points I was terrified by the growth.

Since then, like very one else, I've just been waiting for it to correct. Admittedly I've been in and out since around $10 but I never really felt comfortable and took some small losses in the process, worried I'd miss the next big rise deep down I think I knew we hadn't bottomed but the falling knife gets me everytime.

I don't think anything has changed fundamentally, but the way I see it is this, imagine we hadn't had the bubble and we'd arrived at $3 in an orderly fashion. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable influx of cash into the bit coin economy in the timescales we are looking at.

Sure I'm 100% long so I want my hypothesis to be true, but the hypothesis came before I took the position, it was the hypothesis that gave me the conviction to commit again.

I reckon we might see another swing down, I'm not convinced though and i certainly don't think its worth trying to time the bottom. If I have spare and the priced dips significantly then it might be worth my while to average down a bit. Crucially though I think that aside from catastrophic failure of the whole shebang, say the crypto fails, or it gets outlawed, its difficult to see how all of this could come to nothing. So if we end up in a channel between 2 and 4 for the next 5 years whilst things consolidate then so be it, funny things going on in the world right now - perhaps just as much chance of the euro (or even the dollar if you believe the HI crowd!) collapsing as bitcoin. Thats not to say it will but it might be prudent to hedge against all of these things, just in case, and BTC is as good a hedge as any.

I also like gold and oil right now, and I'm also loaded up on financials (BAC,BRK,BK and BARC.L all the B's it seems!), because I actually think there are a lot of very rich very powerful people, that have far too much at stake to let the system collapse, and if it doesn't collapse then it will be business as usual within a year with new highs in the major indexes that make the recent lows look like just another small blip on the hundred year upward march. The banks will learn nothing, and will lead - those QE dollars are just dying to get out into the system, just as soon as all those pesky regulations on can be worked around! If you can't beat 'em join 'em.

Someone has to ask the question...

Who is All Classic I haven't heard their music? hahahaha

You have not been here in June. Things have become SO much better since then! The board is unlikely to reach pre-June quality ever again, it's not a pure nerd community any more and that's okay.

But seriously, your argument is almost a thing of the past now. Back then, it was so very true! Insane maniac speculators EVERYWHERE, search the forum, you won't believe what you can find there, behind that "Why I put all my money and all money I can borrow into Bitcoin".

By now, things have largely calmed down. Don't forget that by fundamentals, a surviving Bitcoin currency would be valued much higher than it currently is, so we can treat some of the risk as already factored into price. It's possible, but not necessary that we get another drop. Even if we do: anyone surviving the >90% super-crash will probably not run from one more dip.

I see the price going higher, because that's what i want to see

See this chart:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1286&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=20&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

The same as 5 & 14, people said exactly the same thing, search for it.

I mean the price could be relatively stable for a while but fundamentals suck, this board sucks, everybody hates each other and so on. There is no reason for it to go up except pump & dump atm. I don't think bitcoin is in that bad shape, but certain people have to leave...

It has become impossible in the last month do engage in any reasonable discussion, the emotional state of the crowd is the leading indicator for the price and this has to reflect itself. So yes I think the coming drop could be the last one since it almost couldn't get much worse here.
(But we never know....  )