All the people waiting for the next halving: Please explain

pattu1

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Quote from: 8up on January 15, 2015, 05:09:31 AM

What exactly is the difference between a decreasing price (50%) vs. the halving of mined coins?

25 BTC @ $200 is $5000/p. block
12.5 BTC at $400 (not long ago) also equals $5000/p. block

IMO, we already had our halving. So if the argument is true, that the halving leads to a new bubble (same demand, fewer coins) at least prices should be constant at this level ~$200. Otherwise I might come to the conclusion, that halvings might have a long-time effect not necessarily resulting in a related price surge.

What do you guys think?

Market doesn't wait for the halving. Market moves in anticipation of the halving.
Since the halving is public information and markets are supposed to be efficient, it may have been priced in anyway.

AnswerQuestion

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Quote from: Miz4r on January 16, 2015, 10:31:10 AM

Quote from: thompete on January 16, 2015, 03:33:17 AM

Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

If the hashrate is going up more than 3600 coins are created per day, I think during the exponential rising phase of the hashrate about 4000 coins were mined each day. Currently we are at about 3600/day since the hashrate is barely increasing anymore and it could even go down if the price stays this low.

The hashrate is actually decreasing and the next difficulty is expected to drop when it readjusts next.

The overall supply of bitcoin being sold by miners is going to decline when the block subsidy halves next. This will cause less selling pressure on the markets which will likely result in higher prices

ThatDGuy

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Quote from: pooya87 on January 16, 2015, 01:42:22 PM

also miners will give up mining since it is not gonna be profitable anymore, although i am not sure how that can effect the whole transactions and price

The entire system has been designed in a way that mining will still happen. The margin gets more narrow as the price goes down, but regardless of how many machines are mining, the difficulty will adjust so that 1800 are created every day after the next halving, instead of 3600 every day today.

The new supply on the market will be cut in half daily. If demand remains constant (hardly guaranteed), the price only has one direction to go -> up.

pooya87

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i dont think the halvening is going to effect directly on the price although it will have some effect since the "supply" or new coin created every day will decrease while "demand" can be the same

also miners will give up mining since it is not gonna be profitable anymore, although i am not sure how that can effect the whole transactions and price

wilth1

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Quote from: Richard Branson on January 15, 2015, 06:16:45 AM

No it is not. Mining costs per coin are in the range of 80-120$ (without the garbage overpriced miners without ROI).

Cost of production at current difficulty (43.9B) without including capital investment (all hardware, space, cabling, etc.), the most efficient hardware available and .08/kWh electricity is in the range you describe.

But, if you're a manufacturer completely funding all of your R&D and infrastructure with retail markup hardware sales you're just barely getting there, and any new buildouts will have to be fully financed. The real cost for them currently is probably around twice your estimated range.

Keep in mind that retail markup hardware sales are disappearing at the current exchange rate

Miz4r

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Quote from: thompete on January 16, 2015, 03:33:17 AM

Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

If the hashrate is going up more than 3600 coins are created per day, I think during the exponential rising phase of the hashrate about 4000 coins were mined each day. Currently we are at about 3600/day since the hashrate is barely increasing anymore and it could even go down if the price stays this low.

ThatDGuy

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If supply goes down and demand simply maintains, price has to go up. It's that simple. The halving will cut into the inflation rate of new coins daily in a significant way.

Also judging from some of the posts higher up here (such as asking about how many BTC are created per day) I would recommend a few people here re-read the white paper to get a better grasp on the concept of mining and why that halving date can't be exactly set in stone, but can be estimated. The underlying technology is a big part of what drives bullish sentiment, and understanding it is critical when watching this market.

mlferro

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Quote from: sandykho47 on January 15, 2015, 06:25:55 AM

If less bitcoin mined while there are more bitcoiner, so the price will up
But miners would hate this since they will got less profit Sad

I believe that is the point.

dsattler

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Quote from: Elwar on January 16, 2015, 03:14:36 AM

Quote from: dsattler on January 16, 2015, 02:59:04 AM

Is there a solid calculation when the block halving will occur?

I've heard of different time frames, one guy even posted that it will be as near as 2016! Huh

Current estimate is July, 2016.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

Thanks for this link!

CoinCidental

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Quote from: thompete on January 16, 2015, 03:33:17 AM

Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

the small gpu miners have quit as theyre unprofitable
the multimillion dollar operation mining farms with cheap power will not quit anytime soon

Elwar

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Quote from: thompete on January 16, 2015, 03:33:17 AM

Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

Even if there were only 1 miner, 3600 coins would still be generated daily (give or take 1 or 2).

thompete

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Well Blockhalving is essentially going to decrease the amount of coins dumped which are generated due to mining.
Now that the price is down and a lot of miners have given up. Do we know if 3600 coins are still generated everyday ?

Elwar

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Quote from: dsattler on January 16, 2015, 02:59:04 AM

Is there a solid calculation when the block halving will occur?

I've heard of different time frames, one guy even posted that it will be as near as 2016! Huh

Current estimate is July, 2016.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

dsattler

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Is there a solid calculation when the block halving will occur?

I've heard of different time frames, one guy even posted that it will be as near as 2016! Huh

azguard

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Quote from: zetaray on January 15, 2015, 06:15:06 AM

Halving is not something we should be thinking about now. The current price seems to be the major issue. Halving means there are less new bitcoin created for every block, which means supply is constricted and less bitcoin dumping.

And this can indicate to for price to go up little or more.
Miners need to stop selling so that btc price go little up.

Elwar

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Only 8000 bitcoins to $1000/BTC

nehneh

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Quote from: Elwar on January 15, 2015, 06:28:54 AM

Quote from: insidertradingeverywhere on January 15, 2015, 06:07:00 AM

a halving doesn't create a bubble - it just gives the whales an excuse to pump and dump the shit out of it.

Quote from: Elwar on January 15, 2015, 05:11:37 AM

Because the price is way undervalued right now.

Why should it be so? Because you are believing so? The price is what it is and it's in the correct place otherwise it would be another price. It's totally not under value. It's actually still quite expensive.

We all love it when it pumps but you really should be banned from this section Elwar. Your comments are repetitive and really do not enrich the discussion. You have been talking people all year into holding during the downtrend so please spare us the repetive comments even if it would be pumping now. It's really unbearable. You're annoying the hell out of everyone with a brain.
Go to general section and preach it there ... where i don't have to read it.

Or you could put me on ignore like I did to you.

To da moon?

Keep deleting my posts?
To your mother fucking hell, you stupid bitch scam coin loser!

insidertradingeverywhere

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Quote from: Elwar on January 15, 2015, 06:28:54 AM

Quote from: insidertradingeverywhere on January 15, 2015, 06:07:00 AM

a halving doesn't create a bubble - it just gives the whales an excuse to pump and dump the shit out of it.

Quote from: Elwar on January 15, 2015, 05:11:37 AM

Because the price is way undervalued right now.

Why should it be so? Because you are believing so? The price is what it is and it's in the correct place otherwise it would be another price. It's totally not under value. It's actually still quite expensive.

We all love it when it pumps but you really should be banned from this section Elwar. Your comments are repetitive and really do not enrich the discussion. You have been talking people all year into holding during the downtrend so please spare us the repetive comments even if it would be pumping now. It's really unbearable. You're annoying the hell out of everyone with a brain.
Go to general section and preach it there ... where i don't have to read it.

Or you could put me on ignore like I did to you.

To da moon?

not on ignore and not to the moon Cool

Elwar

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Quote from: insidertradingeverywhere on January 15, 2015, 06:07:00 AM

a halving doesn't create a bubble - it just gives the whales an excuse to pump and dump the shit out of it.

Quote from: Elwar on January 15, 2015, 05:11:37 AM

Because the price is way undervalued right now.

Why should it be so? Because you are believing so? The price is what it is and it's in the correct place otherwise it would be another price. It's totally not under value. It's actually still quite expensive.

We all love it when it pumps but you really should be banned from this section Elwar. Your comments are repetitive and really do not enrich the discussion. You have been talking people all year into holding during the downtrend so please spare us the repetive comments even if it would be pumping now. It's really unbearable. You're annoying the hell out of everyone with a brain.
Go to general section and preach it there ... where i don't have to read it.

Or you could put me on ignore like I did to you.

To da moon?

Elwar

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Quote from: Richard Branson on January 15, 2015, 06:16:45 AM

Quote from: Elwar on January 15, 2015, 05:11:37 AM

Because the price is way undervalued right now.

No it is not. Mining costs per coin are in the range of 80-120$ (without the garbage overpriced miners without ROI).

So...mining costs are $80-$120?

But..."miners have to sell all of their bitcoins to cover their costs" -Every bear ever (even when the price was $1000)

Topic: All the people waiting for the next halving: Please explain (Read 1747 times)