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Topic: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment. (Read 3211 times)

ElectricMucus
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Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 06:12:13 PM
#36
Quote from: smoothie on August 05, 2012, 05:54:55 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 11:11:05 AM
Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price.

We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up?
No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price.

Why does it matter why it went up or down? It's just speculation. Look it up in the dictionary.



LOL
Kupsi
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 06:01:06 PM
#35
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:37:50 PM
Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here.
I can stop posting, but you are wrong Smiley
aq
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Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 05:56:08 PM
#34
Its about the inflow of fiat into Bitcoin. pirate was able to counter this for a few months, but in the last 2 month the inflow is too high for him to constantly keep the price at $5. So we ended up around $10. If the inflow stays as high as it was, we will see even higher prices in the months to come.
smoothie
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 05:54:55 PM
#33
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 11:11:05 AM
Bulls, you have it, we roughly doubled since we had a stable price for a few months now. I can follow the argument that the halving of the block reward would double the price.

We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up?
No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price.

Why does it matter why it went up or down? It's just speculation. Look it up in the dictionary.
finkleshnorts
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 05:49:08 PM
#32
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 11:11:05 AM
We are there now, explain to me, why should we go further up?

we shouldn't. I've turned bear.

Quote
No arguments about market irrationality, bubbles and so on, just pure fundamental base price.

market is market, irrational or otherwise. Market price is the fundamental base price. There is no magical price underlying bitcoin. I'm not sure what you are demanding here.
Dargo
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 05:33:16 PM
#31
Since the OP demands that we give "fundamental" reasons why the price should go any higher, it seems fair to ask the OP to give "fundamental" reasons why BTC was fairly valued at $5 independently of the reward drop. The only reason given is that price was stable around for $5 for a while, which is a point about price action, not a point about fundamentals.

Another way to put my point is this: maybe price will go higher from here because it was already undervalued at $5 independently of the reward drop. The fact that it was stable for a while at $5 does not show that it was fairly valued at that price on a fundamental basis, or that it would have stayed at that price without the reward drop.
FreeMoney
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Strength in numbers
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:51:21 PM
#30
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:37:50 PM
Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here.

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 02:32:40 PM
My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply.

So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle.

Of course that is the case. I've been telling people that the price is more representative for all block reward adjustments already factored in.
People insist on the opposite, hence this thread.

Ah ok.

Like I said I do think there is an element of it that will have an effect only after the drop. And different traders theories will cause them to make extreme moves at various times shortly before and after the drop, but I think the only periods with -real- (in some sense) effects are Always and After The Drop.
ElectricMucus
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:37:50 PM
#29
Kupsi compare cumulative and non-cumulative versions, and then please stop posting here.

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 02:32:40 PM
My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply.

So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle.

Of course that is the case. I've been telling people that the price is more representative for all block reward adjustments already factored in.
People insist on the opposite, hence this thread.
Kupsi
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Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:33:39 PM
#28
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:30:09 PM
Quote from: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 02:26:46 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:19:51 PM
Do it with more coins.
That doesn't help in the long run. I think you should read up on this  Cheesy

It does matter now.
Bitcoin days destroyd has been increasing for 2.5 years. You can't manipulate that!
FreeMoney
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:32:40 PM
#27
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:19:51 PM
Quote from: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 02:17:25 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:14:54 PM
Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue.
That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.

Do it with more coins.

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 02:18:12 PM
How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period.

I was referring to the last stable period.

My point is just that no one knows when the pressure of the decreasing reward will have it's effect. It's been known about since the very beginning and in fact the decreasing reward (synonymous with limited number ever issued) is a main reason why anyone holds coins so to a large extent it is baked in since the beginning. If there are many 'unthinking' users who just buy what they need before they go shopping then we'll see a change because of them after the reward halves because they'll just keep buying the same dollar amount into a more limited supply.

So I can't really tell anything useful. I'm just saying that the two sort of effects are 1. Since the beginning. 2. Starting at the halving. And I've seen no reason to specially consider some arbitrary period in the middle.
ElectricMucus
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:30:09 PM
#26
Quote from: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 02:26:46 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:19:51 PM
Do it with more coins.
That doesn't help in the long run. I think you should read up on this  Cheesy

It does matter now.
Kupsi
legendary
Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:26:46 PM
#25
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:19:51 PM
Do it with more coins.
That doesn't help in the long run. I think you should read up on this  Cheesy
ElectricMucus
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Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:19:51 PM
#24
Quote from: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 02:17:25 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:14:54 PM
Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue.
That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.

Do it with more coins.

Quote from: FreeMoney on August 05, 2012, 02:18:12 PM
How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period.

I was referring to the last stable period.
FreeMoney
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Strength in numbers
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:18:12 PM
#23
How long have you been here? We've done a lot more than double during the 50BTC reward period.
Kupsi
legendary
Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:17:25 PM
#22
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:14:54 PM
Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue.
That don't increase bitcoin days destroyd. You can send 1 BTC 1,000,000 times a day and it's still 1 bitcoin day destroyd.
ElectricMucus
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:14:54 PM
#21
Send coins to a new wallet. Again please read up on that issue.

It may be possible to use the total transaction fees as a representative figure some day when BTC is large enough.
Kupsi
legendary
Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:12:57 PM
#20
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:09:59 PM
First transactions involve two parties.

So?

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 02:09:59 PM
Second those charts are so easy to manipulate it is best not to consider them as representative to judge economical development.

How do you manipulate bitcoin days destroyd?
ElectricMucus
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:09:59 PM
#19
Quote from: Kupsi on August 05, 2012, 01:58:58 PM
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 01:55:35 PM
@Kupsi, you ever played satoshidice?
I'm not going to get in an argument about blockchain statistics with you, if you believe they have representative information do that, but don't bother somebody else with it.
I suggest you read up on them, there is plenty of information in the wiki and the forum.
Nope, because I don't like to gamble if I don't have an edge.

But the first chart, Number of transactions excluding popular addresses, exclude the SatoshiDice transactions.

First transactions involve two parties. Second those charts are so easy to manipulate it is best not to consider them as representative to judge economical development.
SkRRJyTC
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Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 02:04:32 PM
#18
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 01:55:35 PM
@SkRRJyTC, you don't know what a International Bank Account Number is?

No sorry.
Kupsi
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9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Re: Alright, we roughly doubled before the block reward adjustment.
August 05, 2012, 01:58:58 PM
#17
Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 05, 2012, 01:55:35 PM
@Kupsi, you ever played satoshidice?
I'm not going to get in an argument about blockchain statistics with you, if you believe they have representative information do that, but don't bother somebody else with it.
I suggest you read up on them, there is plenty of information in the wiki and the forum.
Nope, because I don't like to gamble if I don't have an edge.

But the first chart, Number of transactions excluding popular addresses, exclude the SatoshiDice transactions.
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