Moderation promise: I will not moderate except to delete posts that try to derail the thread by advertising an altcoinUpdate, 15-Apr: it has begun... sooner than I thought.I think the POW innovations have it all wrong. You can't prevent ASICs; there is no ASIC-proof POW. But that isn't the point.
The point should be to ensure that some near-ideal mining device:
(a) already exists in mass production, with another use,
(b) isn't susceptible to botnet-mining, and
(c) has a cost-of-ownership dominated by silicon rather than electricity.
I fear very much what happens once the difficulty plateaus and the only people who can still mine are those with $0.02/kwh electricity and most users are facing electricity costs five times higher than revenues. Nobody "mines for fun" to any meaningful degree in that situation. The hydroelectric warehouses buy up all the idled ASICs from high-electric-cost owners at bargain prices and we wind up with five or six giganto-mines. Then the next time the BTC/USD exchange rate takes a sudden plunge -- for any reason -- those five operators can't cover their electric costs and the rational choice for them and their shareholders is to mount a 51% attack. The scariest part is that since a 51% attack isn't illegal shareholders can actually sue mine managers for
not doing this (at least in the US where managers of for-profit non-B corporations have a duty to act in the corporation's financial interest).
We're relying on altruism more than we think, folks.
If the POW is engineered so that the ideal mining device already exists people won't have to take a gamble with sketchy outfits like BFL. If it has other uses they won't be tempted to sell when operation becomes unprofitable, or they'll sell on ebay to people applying it to a non-mining use.
Unfortunately the people cooking up idiotic monstrosities like scrypt-jane and X11 have absolutely no clue what they're doing. Hey look I'll gang together ten ASIC-friendly algorithms and that just has to be ten times better, guys!
(edit: stuff above here is the main point of this post/thread; what follows is just an initial stab, probably wrong, at solving it)
One possibility is a scrypt-like algorithm but with:
- An utterly massive N-value, like 16GB or more, beyond the amount of memory in most botnet-slaves and impossible to hide the performance impact in the rest.
- Anti-TMTO modifications so you can't trade X times less memory for ~X times more computation.
- The simplest possible blockMix() operation between memory-data-out and memory-address-in -- much less than salsa20/8. Probably siphash is ideal, big thanks to tromp's paper on cuckoo cycle for this idea!
Then the ideal mining device looks like a very cheap (~$50) backplane full of commodity DRAM DIMMs. The DRAM industry has the largest economies of scale of
anything in semiconductor computing, bar none. Way beyond CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs; no ASIC startup will ever come close to their economies of scale. The key is making sure that putting extra intelligence on the DRAM chips (yes, you can do this) doesn't win you any advantage. That ensures that the mining industry has nothing to gain by diverging from the DRAM industry, and a lot to lose from economies of scale.
Anti-TMTO can be implemented in a very basic way by using serially-chained addressing for not just the read-phase but the write-phase too. There are probably better ways to do it. If the algorithm's dependencies are sufficiently serially threaded through the memory then very little of the silicon is active (switching) at any point in time, so you'll draw very little electricity. I'd have to run the numbers here but the goal is to ensure that the total cost of electricity over the expected dielectric lifetime (at 24x7x365 operation) is significantly less than the cost of the memory chips. I think that's doable.
You'd still need to buy a cheapo backplane to mine, but those things are easy for any PCB shop to design, slap on an old FPGA (or even CPU) to use as a memory controller, you're good to go. Product development costs would be in the $5,000-$10,000 range instead of the $5mm-$10mm range. Heck you could solder them up yourself. Great maker project.