Yes I agree - buy NxT and become a bagholder. Each NxT whale got 50 million NxT for 1.5 BTC. NxT capitalization used to be $90 - $110 million in early 2014 and they need new suckers to keep the ponzi scheme err I mean coin alive. Invest into that dying coin today.
I agree, the reason NXT maintains its bloated value is the fact insiders hold massive amounts.
Well, speculation is risky...and regardless of what people say around here, every cryptocoin purchase for profit is a speculation.
But the factor you mention becomes less and less of an ordinary risk over time. If Nxt's perhaps notorious rich list stays more-or-less fixed over time, then the whales are HODLers. The longer that part of the distribution stays fixed, the more and more probable the HODL hypothesis becomes. Especially if the rich-list distro stays more-or-less fixed when Nxt has one of its shorter-term bull runs. If the whales still HODL when Nxt bursts up above (say) .1 or .11 mBTC, then they really are tere for the distance.
Now, I have not checked this out rich-list wise ( <--- this ain't just boilerplate ) but I am satisfied with these two pieces of indirect evidence:
1. True, the Nxt chart shows a lot of volatility, but you have to remember that this is a boom town. Boom-town speculations are a lot more volatile than gentrified vehicles. Taking into account that volatility, Nxt's long-term price performance since its early run-up has essentially been sideways. If you think that's bad, try comparing it to the long-term charts of Dogecoin or Quark.
2. The second piece of indirect evidence comes from Nxters' legendary defensiveness when a criticism of Nxt becomes viral-y around here. The undergirding of defensiveness is
loyalty. Looking at (some) Nxters' defensiveness with the calm eyes of a speculator leads to the conclusion that Nxters are very loyal to Nxt. It's a lot harder than you think to simulate loyalty and fealty, especially in that indirect way.
Put 1 and 2 together, and using the kind of common sense that's sometimes lacking 'round here, you get a picture of the insiders who hold massive amounts: they're HODLING with no intention of dumping.
The risk you point out, Vlad2Vlad, is indeed a real risk. But, guided by the above facts and inferences above, I put it to you that it's a "black swan" kind of risk.
The only ways to protect yourself from black-swan risk are:
1. Don't use margin (i.e., don't max out your credit card to buy Nxt);
2. Ask yourself how you'd feel if the value of Nxt were gutted. Then, with this black-swan possibility in mind, lower your holdings to the point where you can get to sleep normally instead of tossing and turning in worry. In old Wall Street argot, "Sell to the sleeping point." More up-to-date version: "Sell the anxiety away."
3. If you see the good times coming back for Nxt and have a decent profit, which requires being good at the art of buying into the gloom and fud (
which is exactly what shrewd speculators do in the stock market), consider selling a (perhaps small) part of your holding so as to bank some BTC and cushion the effect of a subsequent downturn.
#3 takes a lot of practice and experience, but #s 1 and 2 don't.
And the funny thing is, these rules hold good for any cryptocurrency. They should, because they came from buying and selling on the stock market and they sure hold good there.
Definitional Note: A "black-swan event" is by definition unpredictable. It does not merely mean calamitous. If a future calamity is more-or-less predictable, like the longer-term fate of today's hot fadcoin, then a subsequent grinding bear market is not a black-swan event. It's just part of a class we call "pump-and-dump coins" when we want to be po-lite with our lingo.
