Alydian Announces 5/10TH Systems w/ 65nm Chip - page 2.

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: exahash on August 08, 2013, 05:01:20 PM

Quote from: astutiumRob on August 07, 2013, 09:40:04 PM

Quote from: webjoe on August 07, 2013, 01:09:51 PM

At time of press, each Terahash returned approximately $2,800 per day in earnings.

Kindergarden math would suggest that's wildly inaccurate....

1 block/10mins @ 25coins/block = 3600 coins/day
Network hashrate (now) = 343Th/s

So 1 Th/s (if existing not *adding* to the network) would expect to get 1/343 of 3600 coins/day = about 10 coins/day = about 1000$/day _right now_ with an ever decreasing amount as others add to the network

Some days are better than others (but it all evens out in the end) - a real example - 370Gh/s on 1/August received 4.13 coins, so scaling that to 1TH/s would have been 11.16 coins

You must've been a child prodigy, Rob, doing multiplication and long division in kindergarten. Shocked

A much easier online calculator says:
Mh/s Difficulty Coin/Day $/Coin Net Profit
1000000 37392768 13.45 102.14 $1373.732

Now, they say in the announcement that btc recently traded at 105, but 13.45 * 105 = $1412.25, which is still only about half of the $2800 figure they mention.

Kinda hard to trust a company that gets such a major detail so wrong in their first press release.

Yeah, it seems like a lot of companies out there are trying to scam people who do google searches and aren't really paying much attention to what's going on. BFL is probably the king of this.

exahash

sr. member

Activity: 278

Merit: 250

Quote from: astutiumRob on August 07, 2013, 09:40:04 PM

Quote from: webjoe on August 07, 2013, 01:09:51 PM

At time of press, each Terahash returned approximately $2,800 per day in earnings.

Kindergarden math would suggest that's wildly inaccurate....

1 block/10mins @ 25coins/block = 3600 coins/day
Network hashrate (now) = 343Th/s

So 1 Th/s (if existing not *adding* to the network) would expect to get 1/343 of 3600 coins/day = about 10 coins/day = about 1000$/day _right now_ with an ever decreasing amount as others add to the network

Some days are better than others (but it all evens out in the end) - a real example - 370Gh/s on 1/August received 4.13 coins, so scaling that to 1TH/s would have been 11.16 coins

You must've been a child prodigy, Rob, doing multiplication and long division in kindergarten. Shocked

A much easier online calculator says:
Mh/s Difficulty Coin/Day $/Coin Net Profit
1000000 37392768 13.45 102.14 $1373.732

Now, they say in the announcement that btc recently traded at 105, but 13.45 * 105 = $1412.25, which is still only about half of the $2800 figure they mention.

Kinda hard to trust a company that gets such a major detail so wrong in their first press release.

af_newbie

legendary

Activity: 2702

Merit: 1468

Quote from: Korbman on August 07, 2013, 09:18:10 PM

...
On top of that, the chips get 3.2 watts per GH/s...3200w for the 1TH/s. Let's shoot for a normal-(ish) $0.15 per kWh price (which would probably be quite high for a datacenter), which would put the cost per month at $345, or $4147 a year.

Except, 480 GH/s minirig with 128 chips pulls 2000W from the wall. So 1TH/s would require 40A circuit.
And the electric bill for 1TH/s would be north of $5K/year

Loredo

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 07, 2013, 01:45:07 PM

65 nm

Really, though: who cares? I few more heat dissipation issues, maybe. A few more racks of boards needed. But a TH/s is the same, regardless of the physical aspects of the chips, no?

If they started a while back, they can't be at this week's standard. Ever read the science fiction classic "Far Centaurus"? Wink

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

still don't understand the coinlab connection - no funding , no expertise, why?

edit: mixed up labcoin and coinlab

qnosh

newbie

Activity: 40

Merit: 0

mark

WastedLTC

hero member

Activity: 778

Merit: 563

Quote from: Bitcoinorama on August 08, 2013, 10:09:51 AM

Quote from: Sitarow on August 08, 2013, 09:47:20 AM

Quote from: papamoi on August 08, 2013, 05:26:51 AM

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

Depends on when they start.

Here is a doc that helps you see your potential return for 10TB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdDIxcUxNRDAyOU5GWk5IQ2tleXVQSEE&usp=sharing

I think they already have started and have something more or less in hand, so they want to charge a big premium. The premium is because when they did start a few months back 65nm seemed like a good idea. BFL was having trouble getting there, it beat Avalon's chips and had less associated costs than smaller nm. However now that's potentially not the case so they need to recover NRE costs ASAP, so they need to charge through the nose. ASICminer profiteer from products in hand, so these guys are giving it a try. Their prices will drop massively to compete as they will have to, but they need their NRE back quick fast as their products life cycle is no longer as certain.

I love how the doc shows a lifetime profit of $666k with a pricetag of $650k. By 2015, you'll have earned $16K on $650k. Lets do it! Group buy anyone? The later diff increases might be smaller but the diff increases this year will be much larger than the 18% in the doc which is where all the profit is. Could be looking at $50k less return this year.

I donno. All I can say is good luck to them. So many risks out there and some will win and some won't. I REALLY hope some of mine will win but no one knows right now.

jgarzik

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1100

Quote from: Sitarow on August 08, 2013, 09:47:20 AM

Depends on when they start.

They started a while ago.

Bitcoinorama

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: Sitarow on August 08, 2013, 09:47:20 AM

Quote from: papamoi on August 08, 2013, 05:26:51 AM

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

Depends on when they start.

Here is a doc that helps you see your potential return for 10TB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdDIxcUxNRDAyOU5GWk5IQ2tleXVQSEE&usp=sharing

I think they already have started and have something more or less in hand, so they want to charge a big premium. The premium is because when they did start a few months back 65nm seemed like a good idea. BFL was having trouble getting there, it beat Avalon's chips and had less associated costs than smaller nm. However now that's potentially not the case so they need to recover NRE costs ASAP, so they need to charge through the nose. ASICminer profiteer from products in hand, so these guys are giving it a try. Their prices will drop massively to compete as they will have to, but they need their NRE back quick fast as their products life cycle is no longer as certain.

jgarzik

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1100

Quote from: Dalkore on August 07, 2013, 03:12:07 PM

I am not sure if you picked up it but it looks like they just purchase a batch of Avalon or BFL Chips and are re-packaging them into a solution. I am leaning towards Avalon. If you buy a Avalon batch then you get 3 Th per batch. Nothing suggests that this is there own chip.

Yes, they are doing their own chip. Not BFL or Avalon AFAIK.

TheSwede75

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: papamoi on August 08, 2013, 05:26:51 AM

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

The entire concept of Diff increase and running costs.

TheSwede75

full member

Activity: 224

Merit: 100

Quote from: Korbman on August 07, 2013, 03:26:31 PM

Quote from: webjoe on August 07, 2013, 01:09:51 PM

Alydian’s launch-day pricing was $65,000 per Terahash [...]

I wonder if they've gotten the memo that most other mining companies get around $10k (or less) per 1TH/s...or I could just buy from Bitfury or KnC and pay a fraction of what they're asking for the same speed.

Quote from: Dalkore on August 07, 2013, 03:12:07 PM

I am not sure if you picked up it but it looks like they just purchase a batch of Avalon or BFL Chips and are re-packaging them into a solution. I am leaning towards Avalon. If you buy a Avalon batch then you get 3 Th per batch. Nothing suggests that this is there own chip.

Thoughts?

Could certainly be the case, and would also help explain their exorbitant pricing model. I'll have to give it another look and edit later.

They are charging as much as possible with the premium that comes with being Coinlab backed. I bet they will sell out due to new investments rushing to mining and being scared of investing in Avalon/BFL due to their long standing "Fuckup history".

Sitarow

legendary

Activity: 1792

Merit: 1047

Quote from: papamoi on August 08, 2013, 05:26:51 AM

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

Depends on when they start.

Here is a doc that helps you see your potential return for 10TB

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmeuPljmUNHCdDIxcUxNRDAyOU5GWk5IQ2tleXVQSEE&usp=sharing

reactor

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

Quote from: jspielberg on August 08, 2013, 07:05:44 AM

Quote from: papamoi on August 08, 2013, 05:26:51 AM

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

Yes. They aren't currently available and they have no web presence/proof. Who knows when those will no longer hold. Difficulty continues to rise dramatically (I.e. 20%+).

Crazy rumor time. This holds no bearing in reality, but would be funny.

Watch, this is the customer who got craptons of Avalon chips and thought they could bank on stupid people with lots of money paying craptons for hosting mining that has zero guarantee of paying off within the year contract. Could happen, idiots with money do interesting things. Grin

jspielberg

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 255

Quote from: papamoi on August 08, 2013, 05:26:51 AM

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

Yes. They aren't currently available and they have no web presence/proof. Who knows when those will no longer hold. Difficulty continues to rise dramatically (I.e. 20%+).

papamoi

sr. member

Activity: 378

Merit: 250

they claiming that it s generating near 3k per day that s mean the whole investment is returned in less then 20 days?

have i missed something?

reactor

sr. member

Activity: 420

Merit: 250

But at the same time any estimation still relies on BTC price staying around $100USD as well as the difficulty increase going at a stable rate. At latest count we have Cointerra, Hash Fast, Fash Hash, BFL, Avalon, AsicMiner, Labcoin, KNC, and Bitfury all shipping/going to be shipping before the end of the year.

To place a $350k "bet" that this hosted mining will remain profitable is almost obscene, let alone reasonable. If BTC value drops to $75 for the next year you'll never profit.

This also poses some interesting questions as BTC can become a venue for pure investment, no interest in the network, technology, community, or possibilities at all, but another place for VC to dump money. And if you remember the term "vulture capitalist" that became popular during the last US election season, the type of VC this could attract is that friendly one that dumps money into [industry], maximizes profits for a short period of time, then pulls out entirely and leaves a wasteland behind them, walking off with the profits.

astutiumRob

full member

Activity: 201

Merit: 100

Quote from: webjoe on August 07, 2013, 01:09:51 PM

At time of press, each Terahash returned approximately $2,800 per day in earnings.

Kindergarden math would suggest that's wildly inaccurate....

1 block/10mins @ 25coins/block = 3600 coins/day
Network hashrate (now) = 343Th/s

So 1 Th/s (if existing not *adding* to the network) would expect to get 1/343 of 3600 coins/day = about 10 coins/day = about 1000$/day _right now_ with an ever decreasing amount as others add to the network

Some days are better than others (but it all evens out in the end) - a real example - 370Gh/s on 1/August received 4.13 coins, so scaling that to 1TH/s would have been 11.16 coins

Korbman

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Ytterbium on August 07, 2013, 07:52:37 PM

They say they have a 65nm chip. Which would mean BFL.

Either way, their prices are totally fucking insane. If their hashing comes online immediately it might be a good deal, but $350k is a pretty huge investment.

If they already have their units online, they may simply be charging whatever it is they think will make them more profit over self-mining. People are selling Avalon units for $100Btc. If you have chips on hand, it only makes sense to sell them for more then what you'll get if you self-mine over the next few months.

If they did end up getting a boatload of chips from BFL, the pricing starts to make sense...kinda...

Tying into CoinHoarder's post above:

Quote from: CoinHoarder on August 07, 2013, 03:32:49 PM

Everyone seems to be forgetting that they host the equipment for no extra costs. This saves a lot of $$$ on HVAC, power costs, and time spent. HVAC/power costs would cost a small fortune for a farm in the range of 5-10Th (especially if these are built on Avalon's power hungry chip design.)

So let's say they bought BFL chips and didn't get any sort of bulk discount. To get up to 1TH/s, they'd need 250 chips, costing them $18,750 (not including shipping).

With that as a base cost, they'd still need to get the boards, custom casing (presumably), and cooling in place, which all that alone could double their cost. I have no idea how much these sort of things could cost since it's largely space / efficiency oriented, but let's call it $20k.

On top of that, the chips get 3.2 watts per GH/s...3200w for the 1TH/s. Let's shoot for a normal-(ish) $0.15 per kWh price (which would probably be quite high for a datacenter), which would put the cost per month at $345, or $4147 a year.

With that in mind, we're sitting on a cost of $42,897 per terahash per year as it is, not including labor/maintenance, insurance, etc. Throw in a 10% profit margin and I can see how we'd start to approach the $65,000 mark.

I wonder though...do they still charge you $65k per 1TH/s if you wanted to continue mining for another year? If so, then that's just massive profits for them.

Ytterbium

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: Dalkore on August 07, 2013, 03:12:07 PM

I am not sure if you picked up it but it looks like they just purchase a batch of Avalon or BFL Chips and are re-packaging them into a solution. I am leaning towards Avalon. If you buy a Avalon batch then you get 3 Th per batch. Nothing suggests that this is there own chip.

Thoughts?

They say they have a 65nm chip. Which would mean BFL.

Either way, their prices are totally fucking insane. If their hashing comes online immediately it might be a good deal, but $350k is a pretty huge investment.

If they already have their units online, they may simply be charging whatever it is they think will make them more profit over self-mining. People are selling Avalon units for $100Btc. If you have chips on hand, it only makes sense to sell them for more then what you'll get if you self-mine over the next few months.

Topic: Alydian Announces 5/10TH Systems w/ 65nm Chip - page 2. (Read 7585 times)