Topic: AM Self-mining - page 2. (Read 3218 times)
Protip: If you would like to keep Bitcoin mining decentralized, don't invest in mining companies.
If anyone is familiar with P2Pool, could then give an overview of the pros and cons?
Lets not make the same mistakes ghash.io and others made. I hope AM can be a good steward for Bitcoin and use P2Pool.
I think we don't have to worry about AM achieving even near 50% of the total hash rate right now. We can be more than pleased if we achieve 10% right now. But yeah, if they decide to use a pool, looking into P2Pool would be nice.
This. AM and PETA should transition to p2pool, should be a strong catalyst in pushing smaller operations and independent miners towards a more decentralised mining ecosystem -- the publicity alone should start off a slight snowball effect.
Lets not make the same mistakes ghash.io and others made. I hope AM can be a good steward for Bitcoin and use P2Pool.
I think we don't have to worry about AM achieving even near 50% of the total hash rate right now. We can be more than pleased if we achieve 10% right now. But yeah, if they decide to use a pool, looking into P2Pool would be nice.
DeathAndTaxes released a nice comparison/calculation today at which percentage of the total hash rate it is starting to make sense to solo-mine:
It all comes down to how much time you are willing to accept between paydays and how much variance. Remember bitcoin mining is a poisson distribution ( http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx ). Lets assume you are not willing to go one difficulty period without finding a block.
If you have 1/2016th (0.05%) of the network you should find on average 1 block per difficulty period.
Expected = 1 block
Probability of 0 blocks = 36.7%
Probability of 1 bock = 26.4%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 36.7%
You have a ~1 in 3 chance of doubling (or more) your return but also a ~1 in 3 chance of earning nothing. That is probably more risk than most miners are willing to take.
If you have 2/2016th of the network (~0.1%) you should find on average 2 blocks per difficulty period.
Expected = 2 blocks
Probability of 0 blocks = 13.5%
Probability of 1 block = 27.1%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 59.4%
Looking better but lets look at 5 times as much hashrate, 10/2016th of the network (0.25%).
If you have 10/2016th of the network (~0.5%) you should find on average 10 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of 0 blocks = ~0% (1 in 22,026)
Probability of 1 to 5 blocks = 6.7%
Probability of 6 to 9 blocks = 39.1%
Probability of 10+ blocks = 54.2%
So less than a 7% chance of earning less than half of expected. How about a nice even 1% of the network.
If you have 20/2016th of the network (~1%) you should find on average 20 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of <6 blocks = ~0% (1 in 13,906)
Probability of 7 to 13 blocks = 6.6%
Probability of 14 to 19 blocks = 45.9%
Probability of 20+ blocks = 52.9%
Now we are looking good. Only 7% chance of earning less than 70% of expected. Of course your risk tolerance will vary but the same distribution can be done at any percentage of the network. As the difficulty growth goes down you may not necessarily care about how many blocks in each difficulty period but rather how many blocks per month since the powerbill is due each month. There are ~4,320 blocks per month which means the probability of extremely bad or good luck over that longer period of time decreases (quite a bit).
If you have 1/2016th (0.05%) of the network you should find on average 1 block per difficulty period.
Expected = 1 block
Probability of 0 blocks = 36.7%
Probability of 1 bock = 26.4%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 36.7%
You have a ~1 in 3 chance of doubling (or more) your return but also a ~1 in 3 chance of earning nothing. That is probably more risk than most miners are willing to take.
If you have 2/2016th of the network (~0.1%) you should find on average 2 blocks per difficulty period.
Expected = 2 blocks
Probability of 0 blocks = 13.5%
Probability of 1 block = 27.1%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 59.4%
Looking better but lets look at 5 times as much hashrate, 10/2016th of the network (0.25%).
If you have 10/2016th of the network (~0.5%) you should find on average 10 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of 0 blocks = ~0% (1 in 22,026)
Probability of 1 to 5 blocks = 6.7%
Probability of 6 to 9 blocks = 39.1%
Probability of 10+ blocks = 54.2%
So less than a 7% chance of earning less than half of expected. How about a nice even 1% of the network.
If you have 20/2016th of the network (~1%) you should find on average 20 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of <6 blocks = ~0% (1 in 13,906)
Probability of 7 to 13 blocks = 6.6%
Probability of 14 to 19 blocks = 45.9%
Probability of 20+ blocks = 52.9%
Now we are looking good. Only 7% chance of earning less than 70% of expected. Of course your risk tolerance will vary but the same distribution can be done at any percentage of the network. As the difficulty growth goes down you may not necessarily care about how many blocks in each difficulty period but rather how many blocks per month since the powerbill is due each month. There are ~4,320 blocks per month which means the probability of extremely bad or good luck over that longer period of time decreases (quite a bit).
The problem with calculations like that is that they assume static conditions, which is not the case for mining. For example, you could start a difficulty round with 1% of the network hash rate and end the round with 0.1%, in which case, the probability of mining 20 blocks would be far less than 52.9% and would be close to 0%. This is what we saw as AM's gen 1 mine was winding down and is why the dividends stopped.
Lets not make the same mistakes ghash.io and others made. I hope AM can be a good steward for Bitcoin and use P2Pool.
I think we don't have to worry about AM achieving even near 50% of the total hash rate right now. We can be more than pleased if we achieve 10% right now. But yeah, if they decide to use a pool, looking into P2Pool would be nice.
Lets not make the same mistakes ghash.io and others made. I hope AM can be a good steward for Bitcoin and use P2Pool.
Needs another option: Bigger than Ghash. 
DeathAndTaxes released a nice comparison/calculation today at which percentage of the total hash rate it is starting to make sense to solo-mine:
It all comes down to how much time you are willing to accept between paydays and how much variance. Remember bitcoin mining is a poisson distribution ( http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/poisson.aspx ). Lets assume you are not willing to go one difficulty period without finding a block.
If you have 1/2016th (0.05%) of the network you should find on average 1 block per difficulty period.
Expected = 1 block
Probability of 0 blocks = 36.7%
Probability of 1 bock = 26.4%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 36.7%
You have a ~1 in 3 chance of doubling (or more) your return but also a ~1 in 3 chance of earning nothing. That is probably more risk than most miners are willing to take.
If you have 2/2016th of the network (~0.1%) you should find on average 2 blocks per difficulty period.
Expected = 2 blocks
Probability of 0 blocks = 13.5%
Probability of 1 block = 27.1%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 59.4%
Looking better but lets look at 5 times as much hashrate, 10/2016th of the network (0.25%).
If you have 10/2016th of the network (~0.5%) you should find on average 10 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of 0 blocks = ~0% (1 in 22,026)
Probability of 1 to 5 blocks = 6.7%
Probability of 6 to 9 blocks = 39.1%
Probability of 10+ blocks = 54.2%
So less than a 7% chance of earning less than half of expected. How about a nice even 1% of the network.
If you have 20/2016th of the network (~1%) you should find on average 20 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of <6 blocks = ~0% (1 in 13,906)
Probability of 7 to 13 blocks = 6.6%
Probability of 14 to 19 blocks = 45.9%
Probability of 20+ blocks = 52.9%
Now we are looking good. Only 7% chance of earning less than 70% of expected. Of course your risk tolerance will vary but the same distribution can be done at any percentage of the network. As the difficulty growth goes down you may not necessarily care about how many blocks in each difficulty period but rather how many blocks per month since the powerbill is due each month. There are ~4,320 blocks per month which means the probability of extremely bad or good luck over that longer period of time decreases (quite a bit).
If you have 1/2016th (0.05%) of the network you should find on average 1 block per difficulty period.
Expected = 1 block
Probability of 0 blocks = 36.7%
Probability of 1 bock = 26.4%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 36.7%
You have a ~1 in 3 chance of doubling (or more) your return but also a ~1 in 3 chance of earning nothing. That is probably more risk than most miners are willing to take.
If you have 2/2016th of the network (~0.1%) you should find on average 2 blocks per difficulty period.
Expected = 2 blocks
Probability of 0 blocks = 13.5%
Probability of 1 block = 27.1%
Probability of 2+ blocks = 59.4%
Looking better but lets look at 5 times as much hashrate, 10/2016th of the network (0.25%).
If you have 10/2016th of the network (~0.5%) you should find on average 10 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of 0 blocks = ~0% (1 in 22,026)
Probability of 1 to 5 blocks = 6.7%
Probability of 6 to 9 blocks = 39.1%
Probability of 10+ blocks = 54.2%
So less than a 7% chance of earning less than half of expected. How about a nice even 1% of the network.
If you have 20/2016th of the network (~1%) you should find on average 20 blocks per difficulty period.
Probability of <6 blocks = ~0% (1 in 13,906)
Probability of 7 to 13 blocks = 6.6%
Probability of 14 to 19 blocks = 45.9%
Probability of 20+ blocks = 52.9%
Now we are looking good. Only 7% chance of earning less than 70% of expected. Of course your risk tolerance will vary but the same distribution can be done at any percentage of the network. As the difficulty growth goes down you may not necessarily care about how many blocks in each difficulty period but rather how many blocks per month since the powerbill is due each month. There are ~4,320 blocks per month which means the probability of extremely bad or good luck over that longer period of time decreases (quite a bit).
A pool just for AM and AM shareholders.
They could have a membership card - and make mankinis mandatory.
They could have a membership card - and make mankinis mandatory.
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When AM's percentage of the network hashrate fell to near 0, solo-mining was pretty much a waste of time resulting in no dividends. So how would you prefer AM's mine to operate?
that depends on the total hashing powerYep I would prefer solo mining but I need to know how much hash they operate with
When AM's percentage of the network hashrate fell to near 0, solo-mining was pretty much a waste of time resulting in no dividends. So how would you prefer AM's mine to operate?
that depends on the total hashing power
When AM's percentage of the network hashrate fell to near 0, solo-mining was pretty much a waste of time resulting in no dividends. So how would you prefer AM's mine to operate?
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