That's a major flaw in your argument. The next generation of 28nm ASICs from ASICMiner, BitFury and Sponddooies all promising less than 0.2 J/gh will be available soon. All those companies have 16nm plans (as does KNC which has apparently already taped out) for later this year as well. Those 16nm ASICs are expected to use around 0.05 J/Gh making them 10x more efficient than an S5.
Electricity only accounts for 30% of the price of mining a Bitcoin in the USA (10 cent a watt)
Electricity only accounts for 9% of the price of mining a Bitcoin in Iceland (3 cent a watt)
For a Bitcoin Farm in Iceland using mining equipment using 0.7Watts per 1GHs; new equipment producing at 0.2 per a watt represents a saving on electricity bills of only 6.48%.
Therefore, for the cost of Bitcoin Farm in Iceland, the electricity bill will come down to just 2.52%, but this is not really worth investing in tonnes of new mining equipment even if it is mining at 0.2Watts per 1GHs and these are insufficient savings to generate doubling of the Bitcoin network hashpower
In the USA, even 22.5% reduction in the electricity bill, only makes it worth replacing ancient 1.2Watt and 1Watt mining units and maybe some of the 1Watt units
Earlier calculations showed these units are switched off automatically when BTC price is under $220 and difficulty is 44 billion. Therefore, it will be a straight swapover for miners and it guarantees a BTC price of between $200 to $250 all the way into the Block Halving in 2016.
However, the savings on each Bitcoin mined is insufficient to double network hashpower.
You see, at a sub-$230 price for Bitcoins such electricity savings are marginal factors on ROI. If, like last year Bitcoin price was between $300 to $500 per a Bitcoin, I would agree with you that the network difficulty would be guaranteed to double
Why don't you post this in the speculation (or /dev/null) thread where it (sort of) belongs?
Ok, post me the thread link then, I not going out of my way to find it
I have AMhash Gen 3 direct and shares in AMhash1 at Havelock