Topic: An AI-powered Twitter bot predicts Bitcoin’s price - page 2. (Read 286 times)

I guess this Twitter bot predicts that Bitcoin will skyrocket which is obvious due to this coming event block halving.
As a technical analysis, we can only predict possible prices depending on the previous price action you can rely on the support and resistance as a prediction you don't need to predict the future because no one knows what will be the price of Bitcoin but there is a high possibility that Bitcoin price will rise more than the previous price once $73k broke.

It is impossible to see the future! Writing some code to predict it, is definitely not going to work.
This is why your "bot" fails.

We aren't yet in the unpredictable territory either. I'd say at the time being because of the halving and the similar patterns in history we are in a more predictable phase where speculation about the price is easier in comparison to other times when certain events cause unpredictable volatility.

In other words, all the effort for this:


I don't know what you mean by the last sentence, but I hope you're not trying to sell the bot as a good price prediction system. Your story, as a story of effort and overcoming is fine, but the flaw for me is that you are looking for a goal that cannot be reached. No matter how much AI it is it is not going to be able to foresee a panic suddenly breaking out in the markets. Surely if it is good it could make probabilistic predictions with a high percentage of success but never 100%.

Yes. I see it too, as you said, it should be more practical and not make people doubt and confused.


Must be perfected to completion OP Don't be half-hearted because if someone else comes and happens to also use your application, unfortunately later complain because of the inaccuracy even though we all know no one is able to read BTC price movements in the market perfectly, so in my opinion you should complete one job one by one perfectly,  Then on the other hand, at least you have done with good intentions and steps in terms of making products in the form of price prediction bots, whether you will be devoted to Bitcoin only or there are additions for others.

First of all, the countless nights spent and the trials and errors you've been through to achieve something like this is highly respected as a fellow CS majoring person (I'm still in uni, lol).

I am actually very new to investing and whatnot but have a decent grasp of crypto and blockchains.

I just wanted to point the minor mistake of mentioning that the twitter bot goes by the handle of @predictBTC but it shows up as "We've moved" and written with a different @ in the description redirecting to @predictCCbot. Unless that wasn't a mistake? idk, just wanted to point that out. 

I’d like to share my story about how I made an AI-powered Twitter bot that predicts Bitcoin’s price.
There’s a summary at the bottom for those who don’t have time.

The bot’s Twitter username: @predictBTC

Introduction

First of all, I’d like to introduce myself. I’m a student who loves cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and coding. I’ve been coding since I was 15-years old. I made several AI projects like face mask detector, image captcha solver, etc.
Where did I get the idea?

Every time Bitcoin goes into a correction, I get crushed. I was so frustrated because every time I long, the price dumps. Every time I short, the price pumps. It was mainly because of my fear and greed emotions.

I tried to look up ways to control them, and I stumbled upon an article that mentioned that I should use trading bots. “How I didn’t think of this?” I said to myself, “Lemme try making one”.

My First Try

I spent the next week trying to make a trading bot. My goal was to make one that scores at least a 51% win rate. I decided to make it use MACD and RSI indicators to predict the color of the next candle. Around 600 lines of code later, it was the time for back-testing.

“Back-testing is the general method for seeing how well a strategy or model would have done ex-post. Back-testing assesses the viability of a trading strategy by discovering how it would play out using historical data. If back-testing works, traders and analysts may have the confidence to employ it going forward.” — Investopedia.

A Horrible Fail

How did the back-testing go? Let’s say it didn’t end up very well. After testing the bot on all of the top ten cryptocurrencies’ historical data, it scored 50.72%. It’s not bad, you might think. But wait until you see what I discovered.

I ran the back-testing simulation with a $1,000 demo balance. After running the bot through Bitcoin’s historical data, it ended up being around $100,000. I was so happy until I discovered that if the bot had bought and HODLed, it would have ended up being $300M. So technically, it’s worse than just buying and HODLing.

I tried changing the indicators the bot uses, changing the trading timeframes, I even tried to train the bot on chart patterns, but it just wouldn’t pass that $300M mark. I give up.

My second try

Around two months later, I learned how to code artificial intelligence programs. I decided to try again. This time, the bot will use artificial intelligence. I have to give it Bitcoin’s last candlesticks, and it should generate predictions for me.

I successfully trained the AI model with around 80 years of candlesticks data. It was time for back-testing. I still remember how I was sweating as I had just done a chole ting workout. I ran the simulation, and the $1000 demo balance ended up being $1M.

Hope at the end of the tunnel

I was going to punch my computer, but I noticed something weird with the bot’s trend accuracy. I ran a more detailed test and found that the bot’s predictions direction accuracy is around 60%. It means that the bot is not bad at predicting what direction will Bitcoin’s price go. But still, it’s not accurate at predicting the exact price of Bitcoin.

I knew that it was impossible to make such a bot that passes that $300M mark, so I decided to use my current one with 60% trend accuracy to help me do technical analysis. I also had the idea to make a Twitter bot out of it to share its forecasts with the globe.
Nothing great comes that easy.

I thought it would be easy to create an accurate predictions bot as those blogs said. It was a tough journey. It took me at least a month of late nights to make it. The lesson I learned is to never ever give up. I know you hear that a lot, but nobody takes it seriously. If I had given up after failing on my first try, I wouldn’t be writing this now to inspire others.

Summary

Before I learned about artificial intelligence, I made a price predictor bot for Bitcoin that burned weeks of my time in exchange for inaccurate predictions. It was a horrible fail.

Months later, after taking AI courses, I decided to try again. This time, it worked. But it wasn’t as accurate as I expected. I accepted that no such thing predicts a cryptocurrency’s price with 100% accuracy.

I left my dream of letting that bot trade for me, and I used it to create a Twitter bot that helps others expect the unexpected.

Takeaways

Never give up. I know you hear that a lot, but nobody takes it seriously. If I had given up after failing on my first try, I wouldn’t be writing this now.
Nothing great comes that easy. The best things take work.
It all starts with a tiny, stupid idea, then one thing leads to another, and suddenly, you find something amazing.