An analysis: Bid & Ask Sums on BTC exchanges. Conclusion: no demand for BTC

damiano

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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Quote from: ajareselde on February 21, 2015, 05:12:48 PM

From what i can see, the demand is flatlined for some time now, and there is no sane reason why the price should stay at this level, or increase. The only thing i think is that were diving down, atlease 15%.
Its bullish to say anything but..
I usually analyse bitcoin sites traffic, predicting prices that way, worked well for me so far, so ill stick to that.

cheers

Which puts us in the area of 200-210 depending on the price fluxuations

NotHatinJustTrollin

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I want to add one thing you should consider. The most flagrant difference in Bid Sum:

On Huobi, around the 10th of January (before the big crash) price was only around 15% higher than was it is now, yet the Bid Sum was 2.5 times higher than what it is now.
See for yourselves:

ajareselde

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Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin

From what i can see, the demand is flatlined for some time now, and there is no sane reason why the price should stay at this level, or increase. The only thing i think is that were diving down, atlease 15%.
Its bullish to say anything but..
I usually analyse bitcoin sites traffic, predicting prices that way, worked well for me so far, so ill stick to that.

cheers

NotHatinJustTrollin

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UPDATE:

Huobi:
Bid sum almost halved since I last posted in this thread, from around 17-20M CNY to around 10M CNY. Generally, still very low levels compared to anything seen months ago as you can see by the pic.
Bid/ask ratio is around the lowest seen in ages.

BTCChina:
Generally still low levels, but to be fair it slightly increased. Not by much though.
From 6-7M CNY to 8M CNY.

Coinbase:
Bid sum is low in absolute terms, is stays around $1M-$1.5M range, increased a little and fluctuating but still in this low range.

Bitfinex:
Nothing interesting as always, see my first post for more info on why.

BTC-E:
Bid sum stayed around the same levels, it fluctuated a little but overall we don’t see any big increase or decrease.
Since the bottom it slightly increased but it still way below levels seen since January 2015.

Bitstamp:
Still very low bid sum, after the hack fuckery it stabilized at the lowest levels seen all throughout September-December 2014.

As a general trend, bid/ask ratio is stabilizing around the lowest levels ever compared to anything seen in 2014 in all exchanges.

Again, there is no indication that new money is flowing in exchanges. Demand seems to not pick up for now.

All other exchanges at various time frames:
http://coinsight.org/

fonzie

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on February 04, 2015, 03:32:38 PM

UPDATE:

Overall, bid sum on all exchanges didn't change much, Huobi had a little increase lately to a little more than 20 million CNY but decreased soon after to return to the low levels seen in January. The final result is a slight increase in bids but accompanied by an increase in asks anyway, overall very low amounts of fiat sitting on Huobi compared to August 2014 for example.
BTCChina shows no particular difference in bids, the asks have seen a decrease but no new money hitting the exchange.
BTC-E shows a slight increase in bids lately but that is accompanied by an increase in asks too, the bid/ask ratio is very low.
Bitstamp bid sum has been decreasing lately and is now staying at low levels, for example compared to August, same situation as Huobi.
Bitfinex doesn't show any difference as already explained in my first post in this thread.

interestingly, COINBASE shows a slight increase in asks but very low amounts of money sitting on the exchange, and near the lowest levels since the regulated exchange has opened. Contrary to some expectations here, the exchange is not witnessing an influx of new money.

HOLY SHIT! I wonder how long triple digits will hold? This looks terrible.

NotHatinJustTrollin

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UPDATE:

Overall, bid sum on all exchanges didn't change much, Huobi had a little increase lately to a little more than 20 million CNY but decreased soon after to return to the low levels seen in January. The final result is a slight increase in bids but accompanied by an increase in asks anyway, overall very low amounts of fiat sitting on Huobi compared to August 2014 for example.
BTCChina shows no particular difference in bids, the asks have seen a decrease but no new money hitting the exchange.
BTC-E shows a slight increase in bids lately but that is accompanied by an increase in asks too, the bid/ask ratio is very low.
Bitstamp bid sum has been decreasing lately and is now staying at low levels, for example compared to August, same situation as Huobi.
Bitfinex doesn't show any difference as already explained in my first post in this thread.

interestingly, COINBASE shows a slight increase in asks but very low amounts of money sitting on the exchange, and near the lowest levels since the regulated exchange has opened. Contrary to some expectations here, the exchange is not witnessing an influx of new money for now.

waaat?

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Someone call the Winkiveii, they need to pump it together with Gavin, Bobsurplus, Elwar and the other 3 fanboys.

Put a bullbot on it like on zetacoin to maintain marketcap with no liquidity, else it looks bad.

balu2

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Good thread. Thanks for posting.

NotHatinJustTrollin

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So the situation hasn't changed much so far, bid sum at bitstamp has been going down a little.
Still early to say though and not by much.

I will update from time to time.

Anybody knows where I can look at Coinbase bid and ask sum changes overtime?

okthen

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I don't see how all those graphs show something that much different than the price chart. 2013 was awesome, 2014 sucked, seems we've hit the bottom now.

HarmonLi

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Honest 80s business!

Quote from: inca on January 25, 2015, 10:17:35 AM

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 09:57:01 AM

Quote from: inca on January 25, 2015, 09:52:34 AM

Orderbooks are meaningless. Especially on the Chinese exchanges. Actual fee based trades or borrowed or lent coins and dollars matter.

But I like your sense of desperation

Borrowed or lent coins on bitfinex (who blindly follows china most of the time, if you were a trader you would probably know that) matters more than bid sum over time? I think I heard them all now.

Ask users that were actually trading or following the market in 2011-2013 before and during the bubbles if bid sum doesn't matter.

Have a look at the orderbooks on stamp and finex now. They look insanely bullish. Will the price go up? Possibly.

Rewind to when the price was 380. The orderbooks looked bullish. The price was smashed lower by heavy leveraged selling.

The orderbooks do not represent anything except potential.

But at some point there will be a reversal. Even die-hard bears who short at every opportunity may become cautious at some point. You know, at some levels there's just too many people willing to buy the coins. The price can only go down so much.

NotHatinJustTrollin

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Quote from: inca on January 25, 2015, 10:17:35 AM

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 09:57:01 AM

Quote from: inca on January 25, 2015, 09:52:34 AM

Orderbooks are meaningless. Especially on the Chinese exchanges. Actual fee based trades or borrowed or lent coins and dollars matter.

But I like your sense of desperation

Borrowed or lent coins on bitfinex (who blindly follows china most of the time, if you were a trader you would probably know that) matters more than bid sum over time? I think I heard them all now.

Ask users that were actually trading or following the market in 2011-2013 before and during the bubbles if bid sum doesn't matter.

Have a look at the orderbooks on stamp and finex now. They look insanely bullish. Will the price go up? Possibly.

Rewind to when the price was 380. The orderbooks looked bullish. The price was smashed lower by heavy leveraged selling.

The orderbooks do not represent anything except potential.

That's not how you should look at the orderbooks, you shouldn't really compare bids and asks at a given time. What you should do is compare the bid side and the ask side over time, how much they change over time. But especially the bid side.

Simply put, if during more than a year you can see the bid side slowly drying up in all exchanges and not get particularly better, it's a good indication that not much money is flowing in exchanges (and the one that is already there is slowly being pulled, probably) There is no amount of manipulation that can explain that phenomenon except for simply a lack of demand. Don't you agree?

That's what my thread wanted to bring attention to.

Also, one of the most interesting things is this:

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 24, 2015, 11:52:03 AM

There something particularly interesting to note though.
Look at the decline that we have had that bottomed out at $275. Price was going down but the bid sum was slowly increasing.

Chinese buyers were waiting for that target and in fact we saw a short term recovery that lasted quite a while with a ridiculous bulltrap that topped at $475 before resuming the crash.
The same is NOT happening right now (...)
No new fiat money to support a healthy and prolonged uptrend.

inca

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 09:57:01 AM

Quote from: inca on January 25, 2015, 09:52:34 AM

Orderbooks are meaningless. Especially on the Chinese exchanges. Actual fee based trades or borrowed or lent coins and dollars matter.

But I like your sense of desperation

Borrowed or lent coins on bitfinex (who blindly follows china most of the time, if you were a trader you would probably know that) matters more than bid sum over time? I think I heard them all now.

Ask users that were actually trading or following the market in 2011-2013 before and during the bubbles if bid sum doesn't matter.

Have a look at the orderbooks on stamp and finex now. They look insanely bullish. Will the price go up? Possibly.

Rewind to when the price was 380. The orderbooks looked bullish. The price was smashed lower by heavy leveraged selling.

The orderbooks do not represent anything except potential.

NotHatinJustTrollin

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Quote from: inca on January 25, 2015, 09:52:34 AM

Orderbooks are meaningless. Especially on the Chinese exchanges. Actual fee based trades or borrowed or lent coins and dollars matter.

But I like your sense of desperation

Borrowed or lent coins on bitfinex (who blindly follows china most of the time, if you were a trader you would probably know that) matters more than bid sum over time? I think I heard them all now.

Ask users that were actually trading or following the market in 2011-2013 before and during the bubbles if bid sum doesn't matter.

inca

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Orderbooks are meaningless. Especially on the Chinese exchanges. Actual fee based trades or borrowed or lent coins and dollars matter.

But I like your sense of desperation

Q7

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But the thing is that the bid amount can suddenly pile up within a short period of time and catching everybody by surprise and eventually force the price up. Don't underestimate

NotHatinJustTrollin

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Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 09:16:53 AM

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 08:42:40 AM

Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:29:07 AM

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 07:20:30 AM

Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:15:53 AM

Bid & ask sums can be easy manipulated. It is the worst indicator ever.

No.

They can be manipulated but you can see it in the big spikes that drop sharply in either the bid sum or ask sums graph. Manipulators don't just leave their walls forever. They put and pull their walls, so their influence on Bid sum and ask sum can be perfectly seen. If you ignore the noise and spikes you get a good picture of demand and supply on exchanges.

Bid and ask sums have been reliably used by traders in this forum since forever and they work as a very good predictor for uptrends and downtrends.

Every price crash started when ask sum was at minimum.
You do not see stop orders in order book. The less orders in order book the more hidden(stop) orders.

Again if you ignore the rapid fluctuations you get the picture. I guess a rapid decrease in asks as soon as a crash starts is due to traders panic cancelling their buy orders en masse, and then gradually putting them back up over time.

Still, my thread wants to point to the constant, relentless decrease in bid sum over time. And it's NOT getting better right now even if all the bulls here scream "capitulation, new bull market incoming!". That's what I am am mainly talking about here. How can you say this is "all manipulated"?

Visible order book is 1-5% of all trades. and > 50% of orders are fake.

Dude, do you know that traders here have been using bid/ask sum ratio but especially bid sum as an indicator of new money coming in exchanges that was able to reliably predict uptrends and starts of new rallies (or the end of fake ones)?

Odalv

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 08:42:40 AM

Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:29:07 AM

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 07:20:30 AM

Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:15:53 AM

Bid & ask sums can be easy manipulated. It is the worst indicator ever.

No.

They can be manipulated but you can see it in the big spikes that drop sharply in either the bid sum or ask sums graph. Manipulators don't just leave their walls forever. They put and pull their walls, so their influence on Bid sum and ask sum can be perfectly seen. If you ignore the noise and spikes you get a good picture of demand and supply on exchanges.

Bid and ask sums have been reliably used by traders in this forum since forever and they work as a very good predictor for uptrends and downtrends.

Every price crash started when ask sum was at minimum.
You do not see stop orders in order book. The less orders in order book the more hidden(stop) orders.

Again if you ignore the rapid fluctuations you get the picture. I guess a rapid decrease in asks as soon as a crash starts is due to traders panic cancelling their buy orders en masse, and then gradually putting them back up over time.

Still, my thread wants to point to the constant, relentless decrease in bid sum over time. And it's NOT getting better right now even if all the bulls here scream "capitulation, new bull market incoming!". That's what I am am mainly talking about here. How can you say this is "all manipulated"?

Visible order book is 1-5% of all trades. and > 50% of orders are fake.

NotHatinJustTrollin

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Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:29:07 AM

Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 07:20:30 AM

Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:15:53 AM

Bid & ask sums can be easy manipulated. It is the worst indicator ever.

No.

They can be manipulated but you can see it in the big spikes that drop sharply in either the bid sum or ask sums graph. Manipulators don't just leave their walls forever. They put and pull their walls, so their influence on Bid sum and ask sum can be perfectly seen. If you ignore the noise and spikes you get a good picture of demand and supply on exchanges.

Bid and ask sums have been reliably used by traders in this forum since forever and they work as a very good predictor for uptrends and downtrends.

Every price crash started when ask sum was at minimum.
You do not see stop orders in order book. The less orders in order book the more hidden(stop) orders.

Again if you ignore the rapid fluctuations you get the picture. I guess a rapid decrease in asks as soon as a crash starts is due to traders panic cancelling their buy orders en masse, and then gradually putting them back up over time.

Still, my thread wants to point to the constant, relentless decrease in bid sum over time. And it's NOT getting better right now even if all the bulls here scream "capitulation, new bull market incoming!". That's what I am am mainly talking about here. How can you say this is "all manipulated"?

Odalv

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Quote from: NotHatinJustTrollin on January 25, 2015, 07:20:30 AM

Quote from: Odalv on January 25, 2015, 07:15:53 AM

Bid & ask sums can be easy manipulated. It is the worst indicator ever.

No.

They can be manipulated but you can see it in the big spikes that drop sharply in either the bid sum or ask sums graph. Manipulators don't just leave their walls forever. They put and pull their walls, so their influence on Bid sum and ask sum can be perfectly seen. If you ignore the noise and spikes you get a good picture of demand and supply on exchanges.

Bid and ask sums have been reliably used by traders in this forum since forever and they work as a very good predictor for uptrends and downtrends.

Every price crash started when ask sum was at minimum.
You do not see stop orders in order book. The less orders in order book the more hidden(stop) orders.

Topic: An analysis: Bid & Ask Sums on BTC exchanges. Conclusion: no demand for BTC (Read 3485 times)