Yeah, honestly I always see this kind of news as a bit of cherry picking. For example, a lot of data still uses "new addresses" created as an indicator of user growth -- it CAN be, but given my own rate of new address creation (I easily do 2/3 new addresses every day, sometimes more and I don't even use them all).
Very vague as well when people say Bitcoin adoption as a tech, particularly when more and more users aren't adopting the tech but the asset -- even merchant networks expanding to accept Bitcoin hardly use the tech (BitPay merchs, for example, don't even need to own a Bitcoin wallet, much less ever interact with the network).
30 million users interacting with the Bitcoin network, I'm still not really convinced. Off-chain users (exchanges, OTC, custodial wallets etc) maybe.
Topic: An analysis on how Bitcoin gets to 1 billion users - page 2. (Read 388 times)
As long as Bitcoin is used and defined by governments as a "Commodity" .... it will have a flat adoption curve. The governments and Banks made sure that it painted Crypto currencies into a Commodity box ..to prevent it to be in a position to be a threat to Fiat currencies and also to the Banking sector.
OP is 100% correct by saying Fiat currencies are their "Life Blood" ...because governments control Fiat currencies (Supply & Value) and Banks are making Billions of Dollars on charging people fees and interest on loans and Bonds and other financial instruments.
I don’t think how Bitcoin is defined will play a big role. Because if you look at the state of government, banks and the economies finances, it’s clear that they became fragile. They opened pandoras box with inflation now, which they can’t get out of, because they rely on the printer to pay back debts. OP is 100% correct by saying Fiat currencies are their "Life Blood" ...because governments control Fiat currencies (Supply & Value) and Banks are making Billions of Dollars on charging people fees and interest on loans and Bonds and other financial instruments.
They will need some kind of monetary reform or extreme control over how money flows to keep this system alive. Which means Fiat will continue to become worthless, to the point that it eradicates any wealth a regular citizen had stored there.
There was a situation like this in 1929 where banks started to collapse and people were rushing into gold, which then was forbidden by the government in 1933.
There will be a need and probably no alternative to escape Fiat in the future.
So Bitcoin will be adopted because there is a need for it, unconfiscatable assets have the highest chance of surviving economic turmoil and Bitcoin is the most sound money there ever was. What do you think people will do when governments shed apart their bank accounts? Waiting till they define Bitcoin differently?
Bitcoin will win because it’s better, not because the government says so.
As long as Bitcoin is used and defined by governments as a "Commodity" .... it will have a flat adoption curve. The governments and Banks made sure that it painted Crypto currencies into a Commodity box ..to prevent it to be in a position to be a threat to Fiat currencies and also to the Banking sector.
OP is 100% correct by saying Fiat currencies are their "Life Blood" ...because governments control Fiat currencies (Supply & Value) and Banks are making Billions of Dollars on charging people fees and interest on loans and Bonds and other financial instruments.
OP is 100% correct by saying Fiat currencies are their "Life Blood" ...because governments control Fiat currencies (Supply & Value) and Banks are making Billions of Dollars on charging people fees and interest on loans and Bonds and other financial instruments.
Yes,that's right,mass adoption will not happen as long as it categorized as commodity.
Maybe only world war will make that happen,we already see some example in afghanistan where people convert their money to crypto to avoid their asset confiscated by the taliban and to make transaction more convenient for them.
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As long as Bitcoin is used and defined by governments as a "Commodity" .... it will have a flat adoption curve. The governments and Banks made sure that it painted Crypto currencies into a Commodity box ..to prevent it to be in a position to be a threat to Fiat currencies and also to the Banking sector.
OP is 100% correct by saying Fiat currencies are their "Life Blood" ...because governments control Fiat currencies (Supply & Value) and Banks are making Billions of Dollars on charging people fees and interest on loans and Bonds and other financial instruments.
OP is 100% correct by saying Fiat currencies are their "Life Blood" ...because governments control Fiat currencies (Supply & Value) and Banks are making Billions of Dollars on charging people fees and interest on loans and Bonds and other financial instruments.
I want to be optimistic but I am shaking my head in skepticism. In spite of the fact that the analysis is correct and it has based everything on data collected since the beginning of bitcoin, it assumes that the rate of adoption will not slow down. It also does not mention that technically bitcoin cannot accomodate 1 billion users to use it every day for their transactions without causing the network to increase fees and price out many users.
I think the average user just does very few on-chain transactions every year tho. I also saw on glassnode that around 60% of Bitcoins supply didn’t move in over a year, which indicates people use on-chain as a store of value primarily at the moment. Scaling with blocks alone will also not work, without becoming centralized at the moment. So we will need to rely on off-chain solutions and they’re probably ready to handle 1 billion users by then, so i wouldn’t be too pessimistic. https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.ActiveMore1YPercent&resolution=24h
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Also, the anaylsis only mentions bitcoin's adoption as a technology. This might be wrong because bitcoin is also a type of asset that is also trying to compete against banks. Those people behind the banks have made fiat currencies their life blood and would try to kill competitors to protect them.
Sure, they can slow things down, but don’t forget the mess fiat is bringing billions into at the moment. Bitcoins game plan is strong and you could say banks are the best marketers for Bitcoin at the moment, by their own actions. Fiat will collapse by itself, it’s like a house of cards, once there’s problems it’s unable to fix itself, so it’s just a matter of time. 
If there were multiple Bitcoin protocol implementations, it would've hamstrung the implementation of various BIPs and soft-forks if the multiple groups of maintainers disagree with each other.
There already are multiple implementations of Bitcoin protocol and they are not causing any problems including but not limited to disagreements. Not to mention that if developers are disagreeing on a certain proposal they will disagree on it whether there is more than one implementation or not. Lest we forget the 3 year long scaling debate or the most recent BIP119 PR. 
I guess it is safe to assume that the rate of adoption is gaining acceleration and is therefore expected to speed up instead of slow down. The level of Bitcoin awareness has been rising. The level of acceptance is also rising. So there's no reason why the current 0.36% of the world's population that is into Bitcoin, which is still very low, will not double or triple or quadruple in size in just a matter of a few years.
The adoption rate of the first decade of Bitcoin is certainly not comparable to the adoption rate of the next decade considering that the former starts from scratch while the latter begins with Bitcoin's level of popularity already high. So Bitcoin will probably be facing a bigger influx of institutional and individual newcomers in the coming years.
The overall development seems to suggest that banks are more likely to bend rather than break. The people behind them won't kill for the sake of fiat. It looks like they are willing to adapt instead.
The adoption rate of the first decade of Bitcoin is certainly not comparable to the adoption rate of the next decade considering that the former starts from scratch while the latter begins with Bitcoin's level of popularity already high. So Bitcoin will probably be facing a bigger influx of institutional and individual newcomers in the coming years.
The overall development seems to suggest that banks are more likely to bend rather than break. The people behind them won't kill for the sake of fiat. It looks like they are willing to adapt instead.
It also does not mention that technically bitcoin cannot accomodate 1 billion users to use it every day for their transactions without causing the network to increase fees and price out many users.
That's on L1. But 1 billion users on the Lightning network is doable. But that's not going to happen as long as there are multiple competing LN implementations competing against each other. There must be just one standards maker, and making another LN reference client won't help you with that because you will just end up with the N+1 problem (look it up on XKCD).
Think about it. If there were multiple Bitcoin protocol implementations, it would've hamstrung the implementation of various BIPs and soft-forks if the multiple groups of maintainers disagree with each other. Fortunately for us, the alternate projects of L1 died out very quickly either because of lack of interest, increased complexity of codebase (and not enough hands to work on it).
I propose the community will do a decentralized election process by means of running the LN client they prefer to be the reference body (this process will be significantly easier as Lightning Labs/lnd is already enveloped in scandals around its own implementation, and there are no other major competitors to c-lightning & lnd).
it assumes that the rate of adoption will not slow down.
The rate may actually speed up since we are still at the bottom of the S curve. 
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It also does not mention that technically bitcoin cannot accomodate 1 billion users to use it every day for their transactions without causing the network to increase fees and price out many users.
Reaching 1 billion adoption is different from having 1 billion users using bitcoin every day. Not to mention that 1 billion (~12%) according to the chart would be reached around 2030 which is still far in the future and by then LN will have grown more and the on-chain capacity should have been increased.It's not like tomorrow we are going to see 1 billion users!
I want to be optimistic but I am shaking my head in skepticism. In spite of the fact that the analysis is correct and it has based everything on data collected since the beginning of bitcoin, it assumes that the rate of adoption will not slow down. It also does not mention that technically bitcoin cannot accomodate 1 billion users to use it every day for their transactions without causing the network to increase fees and price out many users.
Also, the anaylsis only mentions bitcoin's adoption as a technology. This might be wrong because bitcoin is also a type of asset that is also trying to compete against banks. Those people behind the banks have made fiat currencies their life blood and would try to kill competitors to protect them.
In any case, according to the analysis there are presently 30.8 million net users in bitcoin or 0.36% of the world's population.
By taking a cumulative sum of entities net growth, this gives us a value of 30.8 million unique entities (users) on the network right now.
Dividing Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth by Global Population (with respect to each year) gives us the percentage of the global population that has adopted bitcoin. By this estimation ~0.36% is currently using the Bitcoin network.
Read in full https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5de588aa3e9c044c1ad8cb59/t/62a0cee064cb4b79ded25894/1654705890141/Bitcoin+User+Adoption+Report.pdf
Also, the anaylsis only mentions bitcoin's adoption as a technology. This might be wrong because bitcoin is also a type of asset that is also trying to compete against banks. Those people behind the banks have made fiat currencies their life blood and would try to kill competitors to protect them.
In any case, according to the analysis there are presently 30.8 million net users in bitcoin or 0.36% of the world's population.
By taking a cumulative sum of entities net growth, this gives us a value of 30.8 million unique entities (users) on the network right now.
Dividing Cumulative Sum of Net Entities Growth by Global Population (with respect to each year) gives us the percentage of the global population that has adopted bitcoin. By this estimation ~0.36% is currently using the Bitcoin network.
Read in full https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5de588aa3e9c044c1ad8cb59/t/62a0cee064cb4b79ded25894/1654705890141/Bitcoin+User+Adoption+Report.pdf
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