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Topic: An interesting case of a widespread misconception - page 3. (Read 508 times)

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18697
Care to explain how you arrived at that conclusion from these data? As I understand it, for your claims to be true, the inflation-adjusted curve should go under 0, but it never does
The gray line, with the scale at the left of the graph, shows the average wage in dollars per hour that the worker was paid at the time. In 1973, that was $4 per hour. In 2019, that was approaching $24 per hour.

The red line, with the scale at the right of the graph, shows the average wage in dollars per hour if paid at the value of a 2017 dollar.

In 1973, the average wage in terms of 2017 dollars was over $23. It has never been higher than that value since. The closet it has got is just now, at around $22.50.

Well, I have different data, which actually shows the change in inflation-adjusted wages (more specifically, earnings) over time. It is based on the Social Security Administration wage statistics (link):
I would suggest you read the paper you have shared that table from, because it does not back up the point you are trying to make.

Look at the 5 categories in the table you have shared. Top 0.1%, top 1%, top 5%, top 10%, and everybody else. The higher earners have experienced real wages increases, yes, but "everybody else" has had wage stagnation. You'll also notice as well that the table picks arbitrary dates - 1979 was already down significantly from the 1973 peak. If you compare to the actual peak, that stagnation turns negative.

Here are a few quotes from that paper:

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However, low-wage workers experienced stagnant (in the case of women) or declining (in the case of men) real hourly wages since the late 1970s.
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The earnings of non-college-educated men stagnated or lost ground since the mid-1970s.
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Most recently, persistent slack in the postrecession job market has led to flat wage growth, stuck at around 2 % in nominal terms, about the rate of inflation, implying flat average compensation in real terms.
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For much of the last 3½ decades, trends in real wages for various different groups in the workforce have been stagnant or worse. As shown above, this is true for middle- or low-wage deciles, most education levels, the bottom 90 % of annual earners, and even the national share of labor-based income.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
There are significant flaws in the way Consumer Price Index (CPI; the inflation measure used by BLS) is calculated and it's been tweaked over time so historic values don't necessarily compare well to each other. I think it's safe to assume that the government's number is lower than the actual inflation. I could never make sense of how certain expenses like healthcare are showing modest 2-3% increases in the CPI but in reality go up by 5-10%.
legendary
Activity: 3486
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
However, what these forum members forget to account for is the rise in wages during the same time span.
Nominal wages have been constantly increasing. Real wages, i.e. wages adjusted for inflation, have not. Observe below the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (click for full size)

Care to explain how you arrived at that conclusion from these data? As I understand it, for your claims to be true, the inflation-adjusted curve should go under 0, but it never does

The average American has never had a higher real wage than that which they had in 1973, despite their nominal wage increasing from $4 to $24. That's two entire generations so far (Gen X and Millennials) with lower wages than their parents/grandparents (Baby boomers). The trend isn't exactly likely to reverse for Gen Z

Well, I have different data, which actually shows the change in inflation-adjusted wages (more specifically, earnings) over time. It is based on the Social Security Administration wage statistics (link):



As you can see, real annual earnings were outperforming inflation since 1947 till 2007
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 18697
However, what these forum members forget to account for is the rise in wages during the same time span.
Nominal wages have been constantly increasing. Real wages, i.e. wages adjusted for inflation, have not. Observe below the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (click for full size):



The average American has never had a higher real wage than that which they had in 1973, despite their nominal wage increasing from $4 to $24. That's two entire generations so far (Gen X and Millennials) with lower wages than their parents/grandparents (Baby boomers). The trend isn't exactly likely to reverse for Gen Z.
copper member
Activity: 2856
Merit: 3071
https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory
Yeah if you imagine you could but something with a half pence in the 80s and a pound was considered a lot in the past I'd agree with this... Also people didn't have many possessions in the past (some of this could be related to globalisation though like bananas and pineapples used to be ornaments - now they can reach you in 16 hours by plane)...

The advancements in technology are quite considerable since one person used to control everything thst happened in a town in the past (a lot of the time) and now multiple parties can compete... If air shipping went up in price for example, a passenger jet company could take over.
legendary
Activity: 3486
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
A lot of posters on the forum love to come up with figures showing how much the dollar (the American dollar, obviously) has depreciated over time, like 1 dollar in 1913 was worth 1000 dollars today (or whatever), with the general idea being that "the grass was greener and the light brighter back in the day"

However, what these forum members forget to account for is the rise in wages during the same time span. And the irony is that wages in the US have been outperforming inflation since WWII, barring a few rather short periods. It basically means that people become wealthier over years despite a declining dollar

So much for dollar inflation
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